Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[leoneobull] 31/1/2024 20:01

Thanks Black Steel LseBlackSteelPosts: 228Price: 924.50No OpinionFundamentalsToday 11:11Based on my modelling of cash flows and debt (FCF generation will drop in 2024 with lower production and margins - hedged gas prices), DEC's financial position based on the current dividend rate looks fine in Q1 (the declared Q3 dividend), and just about manageable in Q2. However, the speed of principal repayments for the Term Loan and ABS loans means that something will need to happen in H1 2024 to solve for H2. This is not about the fundamental profitability of the business, but the financing structure. For 2024, I think the size of the challenge is c. 150m.DEC have lot's of options to address this.Operationally, some of this can be addressed by asset disposals - undeveloped acreage etc.. alternatively reducing the dividend to a consistent proportion of EBITDA (a sound approach IMO), would solve c.USD50m.This would leave some additional financing requirements (plus desired headroom - say 200 in total). This should be easily doable given the cash flow generation of DEC - especially given the forward curve on NG futures.Alternatively, acquisition of additional production and EBITDA would be a more desirable outcome and depending on the valuation, financing and scale could justify maintaining the dividend - if EBITDA 100-150m is acquired.

[jaknife] 31/1/2024 19:40

I see that SnowCap Research have a tweet out criticising yesterday's trading update:



Does anyone have a view on how to calculate decline rates from the publicly available information do we can objectively determine who is right?

JakNife

[johnhemming] 31/1/2024 19:14

I am hoping that there is an acquisition in the pipeline. If there is an acquisition then the directors would not be allowed to buy. Hence if the directors buy before there is an acquisition we know one is not in the pipeline.

That means a lower adjusted EBITDA for 2024. I think the market has underpriced this. However, I think Oak Bloke is over optimistic. (for what is a run down option).

I continue to hold because even in run down the price is low. However, the hedged price for 2024 is worse than 2025. Hence EBITDA in 2024 will probably be lower than 2025 even though 2025 (in a run down situation) has lower production.

[bountyhunter] 31/1/2024 17:45

Keep posting Topaz, ignore the white noise! :)

[mindthestash] 31/1/2024 16:33

I'd like to see directors buying soon now TU out of the way.

[bountyhunter] 31/1/2024 15:20

Beginning to move up in New York.

[bountyhunter] 31/1/2024 14:51

Snowcapped on the LSE at 930p today? NY should get this moving.

[imnotspartacus] 31/1/2024 12:56

Thanks fred but it is 240k in shares as the consolidation was 20 for 1. 12k x 20 = 240k

[topazfrenzy] 31/1/2024 12:47

Whites! I'm still here lol

[bountyhunter] 31/1/2024 11:30

Heading for a blue day, most likely followed up by New York! Time for shorters to close.

[whites123] 31/1/2024 11:29

In the absence of Topaz, a prominent figure associated with PUMP and DUMP activities, it seems reasonable to infer that he has abandoned involvement in this particular stock. Following the release of the trading statement, no groundbreaking developments are expected to be disseminated to the market. The occurrence of a share repurchase indicates an absence of imminent price-sensitive news. Anticipating a testing of new lows, I believe short sellers may mobilize for a final offensive. It is worth noting that, contrary to popular belief, my disapproval extends beyond short sellers to include individuals engaged in manipulative practices like Topaz. For those steadfast in their commitment, best of luck. However, exploring alternative stocks with the potential for a more stable return may be a prudent consideration. After all, what value does a promising dividend hold if the stock price experiences a significant decline?

[nigelpm] 31/1/2024 11:29

FWIW - after reading trading statement I bought a few - not many for now but enough to keep some interest.

[fordtin] 31/1/2024 11:27

Re post #711; "finding ways to get that value from our undeveloped assets. So we're having conversations with multiple parties about ways to joint venture to, to find ways to, to extract that value”

They extracted some value in the following three transactions. How much more were you expecting?

" sale of certain undeveloped acreage within Diversified's Central Region (the "Assets") for net consideration of $16 million”


“sale of certain non-core, non-operated assets within Diversified's Central Region (the "Assets") for gross consideration of $40 million”


“sale of producing assets in Appalachia (the "Assets") to a Special Purpose Vehicle ("SPV"; DP Lion Equity Holdco LLC) in which Diversified retained a 20% minority interest and operatorship of the Assets. The Transaction generated proceeds to the Company of approximately $200 million”

[bountyhunter] 31/1/2024 11:18

You sound a bit bitter having sold out. How much did you lose?

[lab305] 31/1/2024 11:14

March 2023.....
But there's everything is on the table this year, we believe that the opportunity set is large. The other thing that we were going to really focus on heavily in 2023, is finding ways to get that value from our undeveloped assets. So we're having conversations with multiple parties about ways to joint venture to, to find ways to, to extract that value out of the ???????.

So, we will see opportunities there and there will be ways to to do that and announcements coming For the analysts, you're going to be busy with us. There's going to be lots of activity that you're going to have to keep up with. For our investors. It's going to be a big ride this year, an enjoyable one.”
All rubbish. Not one acquisition since then and impotent share buyback scheme.
Seven months in and only £10m spent.

[nigelpm] 31/1/2024 11:12

Small fry but they didn't start until 3:54pm yesterday.

[fordtin] 31/1/2024 11:09

My spreadsheet is currently showing the following. If anyone else tracks the buybacks please highlight any descrepencies.



31/01/24
 
 
 




 
 
 
 


Shares bought back
 
 
768,762


Total cost of buybacks
 
 
£9,947,422.42


 
 
 
 


Average price
 
 
£12.94


Average price in old money
 
 
£0.65


Dividend saved p.a.
 
 
£2,113,276.54


 
 
 
 


% of original issue
 
 
1.583%


% of current issue
 
 
1.609%


 
 
 
 


Buyback duration (calendar days)
 
 
218


Buyback duration (days market open)
 
 
133


 
 
 
 


Average buybacks per calendar day
 
 
3,526


Average buybacks per trading day
 
 
5,780


 
 
 
 


Maximum buybacks Remaining
 
 
4,101,738


Maximum spend remaining
 
 
£87,452,577.58


 
 
 
 


Maximum calendar days remaining
 
 
150


Maximum trading days remaining
 
 
105

[bountyhunter] 31/1/2024 11:06

The shorters are having trouble keeping a lid on the price today despite the high sell:buy ratio. Now all we need is another buyback, volumes are low so it doesn't need to be a hefty one.

[lab305] 31/1/2024 10:55

DrRadcliffe that's what I saved by selling . I had over 1m shares and sold at 90p and 72p. I still post as most investors miss the point and concentrate on the minutiae of withholding tax , price in US etc. I am astonished that people still have faith and was negative for months even though I was a large holder . Anyway what do I know , however I did post my concerns from late 2022 and through 2023 all documented on here.

[imnotspartacus] 31/1/2024 10:49

240k in old money

[drradcliffe] 31/1/2024 10:35

£357,000 invested in DEC!? That's rather a lot. I think DEC is worth much more than the current share price, but I wouldn't put any more than 20% of my portfolio in it.

[lab305] 31/1/2024 10:30

If being mindless saved me £357k then I'll stick to it ! Honest people will always be hated, not because they are incorrect (they may be exactly right), but because some loathe truth and its agents.

[stemis] 31/1/2024 10:18

12,000 shares?