Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 31/1/2024 10:10

Buyback has recommenced. Good luck to the shorters.

[pogue] 31/1/2024 10:07

Knocker
Not sure if it's my sweary word that make you think we are at capitulation but I sold a little while back when it became clear this was a very organised shorting attack I am planning to buyback when the shorts reduce. Am relaxed but can't stand mindless morons spouting off like they are genius investors hence my aggressive tone to Lab. Also had an 'interesting'drive to the office today which doesn't help lol

[1knocker] 31/1/2024 10:00

When the hair pulling starts on BBs, that is a signal that the capitulation point is close, and that there may be a share price rebound.

Here's hoping, anyway!

[this_is_me] 31/1/2024 09:51

You have no idea of the level of shorting only those who have a large enough short to have to disclose the amount.

[bluemango] 31/1/2024 09:48

For once, I agree with lab305 - but only on one point.

There's too much focus on here blaming shorters. It's in the company's power to improve market perception; mainly by demonstrating ongoing ability to at least maintain the current dividend. Yes it's a high yield for their payout, but only for buyers since the recent falls. All will become clearer by 19th March results and the Q4 dividend declaration. Meanwhile, shorts have to cover the Q3 ex-div due in few weeks' time. It's frustrating in the extreme but until those two events make the picture clearer, not much else is going to change.

[sbb1x] 31/1/2024 09:45

No. Markets are wrecked at the moment. Keep adding tiny bits and wait for them to turn.

[lab305] 31/1/2024 09:31

whites123 your post 672 is absolutely correct. Holders are caught in the headlights and seem to blame anyone for their misfortune except the company. To blame short sellers with their very low percentage is ridiculous. The company is 100% responsible for the present position.
I held a massive amount of these for 6 years but the company that I invested in which was truly "long life , low decline " and did what it said on the tin has gone. A depletion rate of around 1% was achieved at that time for a number of years.
It is coming up to a year now since the second placing , an event that we were never going to have a repeat of after the first. I attended the meeting in London following that placing and was very dissatisfied with the answers I received on why the first buyback had stopped after just 28 days and why was there a second placing .
Shortly after this we got Rusty's list of commitments at the results, none of which materialised except for a botched US listing. The consolidation was unnecessary and just gave the share much further to fall whilst putting off buyers. The much vaunted ,by the company , event was a poison chalice.
Put simply you cannot trust what the company says. It has continuously failed to protect its shareholders by not executing the second buyback scheme and given the green light to any short sellers whilst alienating holders.

[bountyhunter] 31/1/2024 08:52

Maybe it will, all options are open.

[bazboa] 31/1/2024 08:44

Surely if the company is serious about buyback it could do better than 12k in a day

[bulltradept] 31/1/2024 08:41

If you can't stand the heat...

[oneillshaun] 31/1/2024 08:26

This is a disaster, decent results confirmation of the dividend plus buybacks and it just continues to fall. Shorter's are firmly in control of DEC.

[leoneobull] 31/1/2024 08:16

30% plus dividends, great results, and we are down. Cmon SNOWCAP, time to close. Happy to take 1300.

[bountyhunter] 31/1/2024 07:40

Diversified Energy Company PLC (LSE:DEC, NYSE:DEC) announces that, in accordance with the terms of its share buyback programme announced on June 27, 2023, the Company has purchased 12,000 ordinary shares of 20 pence each in the capital of the Company (the "Shares") in the market at a volume weighted average price of 929.58 pence per Share through Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited ("Stifel"). The Shares acquired will, in due course, be cancelled.

[bountyhunter] 30/1/2024 21:18

Absolutely, and there is hedging out to 2025 to protect cash flows.
The link to today's Oak Bloke article is in the header alongside the other links.

Closed blue in New York following a decent rise since the LSE close at 16:30.

$12.15 close, equivalent to £9.57
LSE close £9.30

[elpirata] 30/1/2024 21:06

the sustainability of the divi is well covered in oakblokes latest analysis

It is fair to say that a 30% dividend costing $160m a year could not be afforded for 71 years. Or at least my model does not support that. The depletion and current PDP reserves do not support that. After 8-10 years so in 2032-2034, a dividend cut will be necessary ceteris paribus

I can live with that!

[podgyted] 30/1/2024 20:57

Not mixing up anything. Was just pointing out that stating they were planning to maintain the Q4 dividend would have given some comfort to a very skittish market.

There are two sides to the market at the moment - one that thinks Dec's business model is broken the other thinks it's not - and its pretty binary.

[drradcliffe] 30/1/2024 20:55

SP ANGEL note today:

Diversified Energy Corp (DEC LN) 966p, Market Cap £464m: FY23 EBITDA exceeds expectations • Diversified announced average FY23 net production up 1% y/y to 136.8kboe/d generating estimated adjusted EBITDA of $540-545m (51% margin) and a 21% free cash flow ratio. • The Company exited December with a production rate of 129.2kboe/d, reflecting a ~10% y/y production decline rate, and retired 200 operated wells during the year. • Diversified commented that the Company’s 2024 hedge portfolio has a weighted average floor price 10% higher ($3.09/mmBtu) than the current strip and focus continues on layering additional hedges to 2025 and beyond. Diversified shares have been under significant pressure over the last 12M, driven by falling natural gas commodity prices and disputed commentary largely emanating from US detractors following its recent listing on the NY stock exchange. Nonetheless, the Company has established an excellent track record in the last few years and offers good visibility on robust hedge-protected cash flows that boast a >50% EBITDA margin and pays an implied ~30% annualised yield via its quarterly dividend. We expect management to deliver a robust defence of Diversified’s strategy of consolidating mature assets at attractive multiples while enhancing operating margins through vertical integration of the energy value chain from production to retirement at the FY23 results presentation in mid-March.

[pogue] 30/1/2024 20:48

podgyted
why would the divi not be maintained? Income is fine and is hedged. Just because the share price has been driven down by shorters making the divi look high doesnt mean the company cannot cover the divi. You are mixing cause and effect up.

[podgyted] 30/1/2024 20:32

Don't think the shorters will be actually quaking in their boots given share price action today and US looking like its drifting down to London on low volume.

Heard a lot about the dividend being maintained - it was announced months ago. What people probably wanted to know was there was going to be a maintained dividend for Q4. That is not the normal at this time, but it would have had a greater impact.

I think Snowcap might be burning the midnight oil writing another report.

BWDIK
GL

[elpirata] 30/1/2024 20:10

good update on the numbers from oakbloke today if you havent seen it already

[leoneobull] 30/1/2024 19:12

Concerns are mounting at SNOWCAP Research that Snowcap will not be able to cover their shorts following a very decent set of results from DEC. Over to you, baldies!

[drradcliffe] 30/1/2024 18:56

@pogue - thank you.