Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[johnhemming] 30/1/2024 17:38

@apollocreed1 the ABS debt is bankruptcy isolated so the debt to compare to market cap is the facility which is under USD 200M.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/1/2024 17:37

Diversified ended 2023 with an annual average realized price of USD 3.48/Mcf, 27% higher than the average settled price for NYMEX Henry Hub during the year, demonstrating the benefit of the Company's hedging strategy in mitigating the impact of the commodity price environment during the year.

Having proactively established its 2024 hedge portfolio with a weighted average floor price of c10% higher ($3.09/MMBtu) than the current strip, Diversified continues to focus on layering additional hedges to 2025 and beyond, where forward natural gas prices remain strong.

2025 HH contract prices range from USD3 to 4.2 (average 3.60 or higher than 2023)..

[bountyhunter] 30/1/2024 17:22

He seems to be a one man band Imnot!
Probably TW.

[drradcliffe] 30/1/2024 17:21

#676 Couldn't see any mention of the DEC RNS in my copy of City A.M. Perhaps only visible using the City A.M. app?

[bountyhunter] 30/1/2024 17:13

Common sense prevails in New York where there is a strong post LSE rise, again, but particularly pronounced this time.

[loafingchard] 30/1/2024 17:06

Same old..... London closes and New York suddenly jumps northwards. Make of it what you will....

[imnotspartacus] 30/1/2024 16:23

The guy who is voting me down must be short.

[gonsan] 30/1/2024 16:11

Just keep the dividend.

[fluffchucker1] 30/1/2024 16:10

Whites. Maybe Congress may change the law for all O&G companies. Good luck with that vs chevron,BP and Exxon. Watch new production investment collapse! DEC accounts for it's AROs on it's balance sheet, just like everyone else!

[imnotspartacus] 30/1/2024 16:01

I read the city a.m. response to the trading statement, talk about negative slant on a positive Rns. It makes you wonder if they’re short.

[fordtin] 30/1/2024 15:36

apollocreed1 - re; "Isn't debt of $1320m a lot for a company with a market cap of $572m?"

Perhaps it's the market cap which is wrong. Nobody questioned the debt last year when the market cap was ~$1320m.

[bountyhunter] 30/1/2024 15:12

The Oak Bloke hot of the press...



To conclude:

Today’s results are a positive; rising profits, lower costs, progress via NextLVL…. there’s lots to like but also there’s nothing untoward based on what’s reported in the trading statement.

Keep the faith DEC-hands.

[bountyhunter] 30/1/2024 15:08

He's getting boring now.

[johnhemming] 30/1/2024 15:07

Working capital links to the gas price.

[hericsaba] 30/1/2024 14:51

"Estimated Adjusted EBITDA of $540 to $545 million" - is it not too high for company with nearly the same Market cap?

[aleman] 30/1/2024 14:33

I don't get the discretionary cashflows description on p14. Cash generated from operations was over $400m but it had a working capital boost. Take that out and it's $275m. Tax, interest and leases is $120m, leaving $155m to pay the $143m dividend. That was from 2022 adj EBITDA of $503m and debt was $1.55bn. We've just been told 2023 adj EBITDA is $540m+ and debt is $1.3bn+. Snowcap's discretionary cashflows of only $3m in H1 were hit by $101m taken into working capital that could easily reverse. Ignoring working capital movements seems disingenuous or needs explaining better as to why working capital won't reverse.

[apollocreed1] 30/1/2024 14:24

@aleman - Isn't debt of $1320m a lot for a company with a market cap of $572m?

[whites123] 30/1/2024 14:04

I fully comprehend the reasons behind die-hard enthusiasts persistently advocating for DEC. However, if one clings to the stock for dividend gains while being willing to endure a declining stock price, it raises questions about the soundness of such a strategy, especially considering the stock has plummeted by 60% in the past year. It's worth noting that short interest is only at 2.3%, which is relatively low compared to other stocks like PFC with over 11% held short. Nonetheless, this does not negate the fact that DEC has reported lackluster financial results and has not addressed the potential for dividend cuts. Despite the modest short interest, speculative traders may not relinquish their positions easily, as they often thrive on instigating fear, even when such fear may be unwarranted. The looming question remains: what developments can be anticipated next?
Possibly another crucification from Congress?

[keisersoze] 30/1/2024 13:56

This piece looks in detail at these issues and is well worth a read...

hxxps://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/dec-ent-future

[bulltradept] 30/1/2024 13:55

Oh we know there are paid bashers, and you can tell 'em.

[louis brandeis] 30/1/2024 13:55

ADVFN user for over 20 years pal.

[bountyhunter] 30/1/2024 13:48

Louis Brandeis
Member since: 24 Jan 2024

[louis brandeis] 30/1/2024 13:41

The figures aren't the primary issue. It is how they are being derived. There is no point talking figures if the fundamental assumptions are flawed. I suggest you look at Snowcap's presentation pages 13,14 & 15 plus appendices.



After you have done that, tell us how they are wrong.

[aleman] 30/1/2024 13:30

And I asked for your cashflow numbers. I'm still waiting:


Louis Brandeis
25 Jan '24 - 09:42 - 7657 of 7772
0 1 1
I'm actually always disappointed at the level of investor competence on ADVFN. You do get a few who know what they are talking about, but as time goes by, that number reduces.

OK, we are not all going to be able, or interested, in reading sets of accounts, but surely the level of curiosity should still be there?? Everyone seems to take what they are told at face value and will always remain steadfast in the narrative which they most like - even when facts obviously point to the narrative being false, or at the very least, questionable.

Snowcap have raised several serious issues in my opinion which need to be answered. The one that I'm most interested in is the cashflow. Very odd method of coming to a cashflow number. As far as well capping and long-term liabilities and risks - I'm happy with my conclusion: this stock is not investable.

You have to watch these type of companies. They have a bad habit of trying to push performance metrics further up the income and cashflow statements.

Aleman
25 Jan '24 - 10:16 - 7658 of 7772 Edit
0 10 0
Ok - I see no numbers in your post. Operating cashflow pre-working cap was $275m in H1. (Last year H1 $144, FY $275m). Let's assume H2 is only $225m so FY will be $500m. Annual dividend $143m. FY interest cash cost was $83m (mostly fixed rate) and leases $11m. That leaves $250m+ to pay down debt or play with. Can you tell me why that can't cope with debt of $1.3bn+ (after the recent disposal)?

(The capping business should have rapidly growing earnings as it expands but I don't know if is anything signifcant yet or ever will be. Further small disposals might contribute to debt reduction. Some already planned modest drilling is earmarked in recently acquired territory if prices firm. These might all help slightly though I would bank on none.)

What are your cashflow numbers?