Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[huckers] 22/1/2024 07:33

I understand they are hedged. That really isn't the point. The whole sector will just be marked down.

I'm invested here, too (and believe in the model).

[bountyhunter] 22/1/2024 07:24

LSE Friday close £9.58
NYSE Friday evening close £10.53 equivalent

[bountyhunter] 22/1/2024 07:19

..and it's an opportunity for DEC to make further accretive acquisitions at bargain prices while prices remain low.

[leoneobull] 22/1/2024 07:16

With 85% of prices hedges to 2025? You are kidding?

[huckers] 22/1/2024 07:10

Nat gas prices looking horrible - expect to weigh on this. Can't see a recovery until they rise and stay up.

[bountyhunter] 22/1/2024 06:42

No surprise there then.

[leoneobull] 21/1/2024 17:41

First Berlin noteToday 12:52Why we expect Diversified to hold its dividendhttps://t.co/xEzYThGnqXAnd 3600 GBP target

[leoneobull] 21/1/2024 17:26

The seeking alpha thread quite interesting. Useful to see what USS investors think, such as....Darp [e-mail] fantasy for DEC (longshot) is that this winter uses up a bunch of gas, then with LNG ports opening here and Canada in 2024 gas actually has a big rally and they can hedge years out over $5. If that happens it will be a money machine, they will need to plug many less wells as marginal ones will be quite profitable, cash will pile up like crazy. And a use for depleted gas wells comes along. A wild fantasy".

[leoneobull] 21/1/2024 17:20

Yes, I'd imagine they are desperate to close their short prior to the impenetrable results

[justiceforthemany] 21/1/2024 16:10

&? What did they say?

[bluemango] 21/1/2024 16:07

Yes, last 3 years they have issued a Trading Statement around end Jan/early Feb. Last year's was 31st Jan.

[kaos3] 21/1/2024 15:27

Good to see you plas. I loaded as much as i could in the last week

[con90210] 21/1/2024 15:25

Trading statement due soon

[plasybryn] 21/1/2024 15:16

Shareprohets covers DEC today

[bluemango] 21/1/2024 14:47

"The consultancy S&P Global Platts forecasts that growing LNG exports will push demand 4.2bcf/d ahead of supply over the next two years. The expectation of brisk LNG-driven demand growth is the main reason for the current upward slope in the gas futures curve to an average of USD3.47/MMBtu over the five year period January 2024 to December 2028"

[papillon] 21/1/2024 14:34

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


DEC log chart showing EMA's. Not a good looking longer term chart since the start of 2023.

[lonrho] 21/1/2024 13:58

QPP was easier to understand than DEC. In 2024 interest and ABS loan repayments should cancel out free cash flow from trading but further ABS loan deals and disposal of undeveloped land could enable the dividend to be held. Of course further transactions similar to the one on 2nd january could assist matters.

[brucie5] 21/1/2024 13:44

Hmm. Who on earth to believe. I remember similar arguments being had about QPP once upon a time and now here come Whinnifrith. FWIW, I do actually hold some.

[bountyhunter] 21/1/2024 12:32

Seeking alpha chat as mentioned by TM above..



I'll add that link to the header - added towards the end.

[gary1966] 21/1/2024 12:30

Anyone read the First Berlin note? Not sure if I am going mad but says $365m EBITDA that translates to $320m FCF after INTEREST, tax and CAPEX. They then go onto say, when they are calculating the FCF deficit, that $200m debt repayments, $120m INTEREST COSTS, and dividend of $168m. Surely that means they have double counted the interest cost that nearly wipes out there deficit. I would also throw out there that the decline rate will reduce on existing production as the shale wells get older. I don’t know where the $120m interest comes from either. The ABL were at an overall rate of 5%ish? RCF not being used much. Their borrowings would have to be nearly $2bln to get an interest figure of that size, and I know their debt is nowhere near that. I would say that is any deficit gone. Production jumped rapidly from just under 95 to 145 with a quick succession of deals and I expect a similar thing to happen again to offset and some the decline rate.

[elpirata] 21/1/2024 11:26

Whinny trying to talk his own book but probably too late to the party

[elpirata] 21/1/2024 11:17

December First Berlin note

[action] 21/1/2024 10:24

That is the normal in this day and age.

[the millipede] 20/1/2024 22:45

“US liquidity must have come through sellers on the LSE“

There was something that traded in New York, an ADR maybe, not sure exactly.

There is a bit of chat on seekingalpha - a US shares site - about brokers switching these to the new listing and messing it all up.