Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[11_percent] 23/1/2024 08:49

SHORTS

This aint good.....short positions are heading up.....with some recent increase in shorts on 19/01/24.

They think they can push it down further.

[bountyhunter] 23/1/2024 08:47

..and Walleye Capital LLC's short has dropped back to 0.49% on 19th January from 0.52% on the 17th January.

[11_percent] 23/1/2024 08:43

Yup....I spoke too soon.

[bountyhunter] 23/1/2024 08:41

But only Voleon is an increase? ..and that by only 0.03% to 0.52% which is why it now shows up on the list

[whites123] 23/1/2024 08:40

New Lows to be tested this week.

topazfrenzy22 Jan '24 - 12:23 - 37649 of 37655
0 1 2
Keep hoping for your 5% return with this dog lol

RED FINISH!

The guru has spoken..
I do foresee an £8.00 close end of the week so in a way I agree for once with Topaz

[fordtin] 23/1/2024 08:39

Two new players have popped their heads over the fence;



Position Holder
 
Name of Share Issuer
 
Net Short Position (%)
Position Date




 
 
 
 
 
 


Adage Capital Management L.P.
 
DIVERSIFIED ENERGY COMPANY PLC
 
0.66
01/03/2023


Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd
 
DIVERSIFIED ENERGY COMPANY PLC
 
0.51
19/01/2024


Voleon Capital Management LP
 
DIVERSIFIED ENERGY COMPANY PLC
 
0.52
19/01/2024


Walleye Capital LLC
 
DIVERSIFIED ENERGY COMPANY PLC
 
0.49
19/01/2024

[whites123] 23/1/2024 08:37

New lows to be tested this week.

[bountyhunter] 23/1/2024 08:34

Someone's selling now to knock it back, easy on this morning's low volume but the discrepancy with NY can't go on for ever. Also we are due a trading update in around a week's time. It was on January 31st last year. Then XD 87.5c on February 29th.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/1/2024 08:23

#PodgyTed, if the BOD had left us exposed to the near term gas pricing volatility I would not be invested, a 2 or 3 month outlook strategy given our debt profile would be nuts.. :o)

From the last presentation Nov 2023
70-90% hedged <12 month forward
50-70% hedged 12-24 months forward
25 month + long-dated hedge portfolio underpins investment-grade debt and fully amortising notes..

[11_percent] 23/1/2024 08:21

Indeed.....starting to see it acting like a serious share.....not getting the wild swings.....usually down....at the open.

At some point they will change the switch on the bot/algo......to rise...as opposed the sell position.

[renewed1] 23/1/2024 08:21

Thanks Aleman ....much appreciate your sharing of the knowledge your gaining around an opaque set of nos.

[bountyhunter] 23/1/2024 08:17

Going in the right direction on the LSE from the open.

[aleman] 22/1/2024 23:07

DEC will mostly be selling into 2026 and 2027 timeframes - not necessarily contracted to Henry Hub prices. (They've told us their average price tends to be slightly lower, and there are other ways of forward selling, and they actually use their expertise do a little trading on the side.) The lowest price of those 24 Henry Hub contracts is $3.35 for 4/27 and the highest is $4.70 for 1/27 so that suggests the general markets DEC are selling most of their production into are still probably very profitable at the moment.

Whilst we can see that short Henry Hub futures are weak, spot prices at regional hubs actually hit $17 briefly in Boston and North California last week as demand rose into production freeze-offs. Prices closer to main Permian and Appalachian Hubs spiked to around $8 though are already back close to the short contract Henry hub prices. It's not quite as simple as Henry Hub when you look under the hood. If some production was frozen off, whose was it, and who took advantage of the spike in prices? I have no idea.

DEC sell some NGLs, too. Spot propane is up 34% in the two weeks to last Friday. It was 94 cents versus a low of 59 cents in October and a Q1/22 Ukraine high of about 160 cents. I have no idea how that affects DEC and but it's clearly better than a fall.

It's all very complicated. I would not panic over some weakness in some short contracts at a different hub that DEC do not sell at to any significant degree that I know of. I'd concentrate on futures trends at 2 to 4 years. The short stuff is likely only a few % and the several % sold at spot is very volatile indeed and nothing like short futures.

And I'm still learning ....

[justiceforthemany] 22/1/2024 21:34

Same pattern again and again bountyhunter. Blatant manipulation to the downside here by short sellers. LSE closes and as if by magic the stock rises.
Who's contacted the LSE regulators....:)

[podgyted] 22/1/2024 21:03

LLB

Understand what you are saying but I've had a change in heart and sold out today.

The near-term contract prices are collapsing again today.

Feb -3.6% $2.42
Mar -5.3% $2.13
Apr -4.9% $2.16

As far out as Nov 24 the contracts are down by at least 3% today. Only in Nov 24 does the price go back above $3.

Whats going on in the near-term suggests to me that supply is exceeding demand and this will kick on into later times as storage volumes increase - late 2024 and 2025 contract prices may dive - low volume means these are by no means firm. Think there may be a problem fixing at the sort of levels DEC has been doing for the last few years in the future (for 2026 onwards) and that would compromise its business model - plus 20% is unhedged - this used to be a windfall now it could be a problem.

On the sidelines for now.

Just my opinion FWIW.

GLA

[bountyhunter] 22/1/2024 20:49

Surprise surprise, rising in NY after the London close.



£10.45 equivalent close in NY vs £9.62 LSE close.

[1knocker] 22/1/2024 19:32

graham, you seem to have all bases covered in your last post!

[assagai] 22/1/2024 19:29

Chk well 68,900 shares at market offered / bought at closing auction or appr £650k worth across circa 40 parcels.

[nigelpm] 22/1/2024 18:58

I still don't understand the obsessing over the variance between NY and UK price - if you really think it's wrong open an IG account and arb it.

[aleman] 22/1/2024 17:50

grahamg8
22 Jan '24 - 17:33 - 7458 of 7458

Big movements, London up, New York down.


Eh? NY seems to be tracking London very closely over the last week.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[grahamg8] 22/1/2024 17:33

Big movements, London up, New York down. Getting more unstable by the day. I say it will break upwards is more likely. Or shares suspended of course.

[cool hand kev] 22/1/2024 16:49

Where? I can’t see loads of trades

[assagai] 22/1/2024 16:35

Wow! Look at the auction. A lot of retail shorters trying to close!

[bountyhunter] 22/1/2024 15:37

DEC: Lse vs Nyse, 5 days: