Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mondex] 16/5/2023 13:45

Lab305, given that the price of NG has fallen 71% YoY, a fall of 33% in DEC's share price is not too bad!

[bluemango] 15/5/2023 21:36

I suspect people who mention the dividend (and my post was only in response to a query about timings) are as disappointed about the capital loss as everyone else.

But if you can afford to take a longer view, and are focussed on income whilst being bullish about energy prices over the coming year and beyond, then one can be both disappointed but also relatively sanguine about the situation.

[marksp2011] 15/5/2023 21:30

Yup. It is strange there are posters on Advfn who go on and on about the dividend in XYZ while they sit on big capital losses Lgen ans Aviva are both 20% plus down and everyone is excited by an 8% dividendI don't follow the thinking myself. Lgen has underpermod a global tracker, jggi and wildly underpermod Fundsmith Equity that's no divi at all. Not sure what DEC is doing but value generally is having a poor time at the moment.I have a holding in caml and slp. Both are struggling badly

[bluemango] 15/5/2023 15:37

Incidentally, just noticed the Q1 dividend amount is incorrect on the HL website and have messaged them asking to correct it. Should be 0.04375, same as Q4.

Advfn is even worse, hasn't been updated since Q2 paid last year in December.

[tdickit68] 15/5/2023 15:34

Ex div on 25/05 pay 30/06

[bluemango] 15/5/2023 15:25

#4776

Q4 dividend was announced 21st March, 0.04375, payment due 30th June.

[rolo7] 15/5/2023 15:20

has the Q4 dividend been annouced or paid yet?

[drk1] 15/5/2023 11:33

Well personally, more than happy to top up (as I have this morning) @ under 90p - my average now being 96. Time will tell. ;-)

[johnhemming] 15/5/2023 11:27

The Tanos deal, however, will bring in quite a bit of cash quite quickly and they are not intending to increase spend on dividends with that. Hence that cash will be available for doing more deals.

[lab305] 15/5/2023 11:22

"There's going to be lots of activity that you're going to have to keep up with. For our investors. It's going to be a big ride this year, an enjoyable one.”
Rusty Hutson March 2023

[scrwal] 12/5/2023 12:13

lab305
True there may well be liquidity of $100m but if that is used on buybacks aren't you then causing the problem of no money for acquisitions so what do you think could happen then.

Yes I have concerns about the way they present well retirements etc but it is based on DEC exceeding the minimal legal requirements but falling short of their 10 year target included in the ARO model which includes significant increases after that. Also they have not given a cost figure for current well retirements.

I have suggested a reason for continuing weakness may be due to the ARO but if you read my posts you will see I have slagged the company off for doing a snap placement saying the market doesn't like them based on the previous placement and that any further macro changes would hit the price even harder which is what happened.

[lab305] 11/5/2023 23:01

Scrawl I did not say directly that it would but the 2bn market cap which I understood to be a wish for a US listing has fast disappeared . In my opinion the Tanos2 deal is a decent one but its execution has done great damage to both the share price and trust in the company.
You assume the opposite of me. Mopping up shares over a sustained period would have a very positive effect indeed.
From 2 days ago ...
2.3x Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio(f) and $110 million of liquidity
Last time I looked liquidity meant cash.
I would go further and even borrow more at around 7% to cancel shares paying out 15%.

You think the share price is so weak because you believe they are behind on decommissioning and have said so several times ,but that's false. You don't shut down productive wells just for the sake of it and remember under their SWM programme wells are producing for longer. They gave examples a few years ago of wells still economically producing after 50 years. Decommissioning will obviously follow an exponential curve not a linear one. If nothing changes the company will be debt free in under 7 years. That leaves a lot to address those concerns when required . They are also exceeding their legal obligations year after year. Every analyst researching the company has dealt with this question and have all concluded it is not a problem, and that was also before Next Level . You have to give them credit for tackling the Bloomberg accusations head on. Now they have to tackle this negativity which feeds on itself.

[scrwal] 11/5/2023 21:10

lab305
How does any buy back help a US listing - aren't you reducing the market value (assuming no big change to the price)?
I presume you have read the 2022 accounts and seen the cash balance so could you explain where the cash is to buy back 100m+ shares immediately?

[1knocker] 10/5/2023 16:16

After the past 6 months I would be pleased to see DEC regain 3 figures, never mind reach 160 Bluemango! The extraordinary thing is that at 160 the dividend would still be notable.

There are a good many prices across the sector which seem to me to be out of kilter to the downside at present. I guess that after such a hit gloom becomes a self fulfilling prophesy, and it may take a while to turn the share price ship around. Great for those building holdings of course. There must be many more of us with a sub 100 average now than there were 6 months ago.

[aleman] 10/5/2023 14:41

Has DEC overreacted to cable a bit?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[bluemango] 10/5/2023 12:23

Broker note on DEC from Dowgate Capital - target price 160p.

[lomand01] 09/5/2023 22:36

All resource companies have declining assets. The trick is to either discover or acquire replacement assets and run them effectively. With DEC you don't have the same risks as a traditional E&P resource company. Its model is almost unique which is probably why investors are struggling to understand it. Watch the emeth value video on YT for good analysis

[scrwal] 09/5/2023 22:03

alotto
The ARO model shows how funds are to be spent including all $1.5bn of debt paid within 10 years.
There is no long term company value as it has a 50 year life span - you make your money on the dividends.

[alotto] 09/5/2023 21:13

The balance sheet carries around $4bln in total asset and around $4bln in total liabilities. I assume the total asset accounts for the estimate value of the gas in reserve. The total equity (total assets minus total liabilities) is around nil. I consider that the cash flow in the coming years will come from the sale of the natural gas in reserve, which is no more than $4bln in value and I factor in the cost of debt, repayment of debt, operating costs and so on. I am ignoring the contribution to the cash flow of ancillary operations such as, third party well plugging, solar farms, etc. Where is the value left for the shareholders in a company that relies merely on the sale of its 'inventory'? It baffles me that the dividend payout is so high, is it sustainable? If my assumptions are correct, the company would run out of gas and plug all their wells before they will have repaid their debt.
By comparison, Shell PLC has around £200bln equity, which is in line with its market cap. Is Shell PLC in a better place than DEC, why would I invest in DEC rather than Shell if I was to hold with a long term view?
(Disclaimer: I have a small position in DEC already. Disclaimer 2: I apologize in advance if my post is not the clearest, English is not my fist language,

[lab305] 09/5/2023 21:10

NATURAL GAS
2.263 +1.12%
Gas up over 10% over last 4 or 5 days. Share price a car crash. Good statement today but not anywhere near enough. We need substantial share purchases. After the shameful placing and confidence lost the company must show faith in itself. Harping continuously about the dividend is not helping the share price We are in territory now where most believe the dividend is either false or non sustainable especially potential new investors. How can they now possibly expect the market cap to warrant a US listing? For God's sake restart the share buybacks with a vengeance and save yourselves 10% .

[1knocker] 09/5/2023 13:39

That all looks perfectly satisfactory to me. We are heavily hedged going forward, providing certainty. I also like the fact that we rein the well closure business servicing 3rd parties in addition to r own portfolio of wells. Whether there is much substance to the solar partnerships is unclear to me, but not a bad thing in these ESG times, even if it does not add much to the bottom line.

[11_percent] 09/5/2023 12:49

Presentation, 9th May 2023.

[oneillshaun] 09/5/2023 12:44

Just missed sub 90p I have a feeling we will see it again.