Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[scrwal] 12/7/2022 22:31

Looking at the charts it appears that once it gets into the 120s something always happens for it to retreat to 100-110. If you want to trade you can make money. I have bought on the dips to get an av of 100.8p. If it drops any further then I shall top up but will have an open mind about keeping this slice as a lth or maybe sell once it hits the 120s.

[spawny100] 12/7/2022 21:09

The dividend is very decent here but the share price has done nothing much for a couple of years. Are the next couple of years going to see same kind of thing? Nice to have some stability in today's crazy market though.

[1knocker] 12/7/2022 21:04

This is already my largest holding, but if it goes much lower I shall have to exercise the utmost discipline to resist exceeding my intended quota by buying yet more,

[11_percent] 12/7/2022 07:44

Directors buying.....looks good.

[greygeorge] 11/7/2022 20:37

Sorry, my bad, that should be the acquisition of TWO well capping companies.

[greygeorge] 11/7/2022 20:32

gary1966. One point though, DEC has 'spare capacity' because it bought a well capping company that was added to its' own 'in-house' crew. But you knew that already, I'm sure.

[greygeorge] 11/7/2022 20:28

gary1966, I couldn't agree more.

[scrwal] 11/7/2022 16:56

Gary1966

I think the move into buying the capping operations was for several reasons including the obvious future needs of the company regarding capping levels. Maybe the Bloomberg cr*p steered them into thinking about a minor increase in capping might be a good idea. It also made sense to tie in expertise now and keep ahead of the curve and being able to utilise unused capacity is what all companies dream of so hats off to DEC.
It wouldn't surprise me to see one more capping acquisition as they seem to be able to promote the service well.

Any branching out could occur but its roots will be heavily seated in DECs expertise and ethos. The existing plan works, even if it sometimes irks investors like me occasionally.

[gary1966] 11/7/2022 16:04

Greygeorge,

This is probably the most prudently run company on the market, do you seriously believe that they are going to evolve into a commodity trader? They are capping wells for other companies as they have spare capacity that they may as well use. They know the costs involved and so know how much to charge. Well retirement is potentially going to be a huge business in the states and fits with DEC as it is as boring as hell.

[greygeorge] 11/7/2022 15:59

scrwal - Grow up !

[scrwal] 11/7/2022 15:51

greygeorge DEC isn't Glencore. You seem to make statements but don't substantiate anything when questioned. To me you don't "enlighten" readers of this board and to quote the end of post 3118 "your thinking is wrong, and ill-informed".

I am also filtering you so can't give you the opportunity to respond.

[greygeorge] 11/7/2022 14:57

numpty, as you said, you got it 'partly wrong'. On what planet - in what universe - is getting things at best 'partly wrong' in any way enlightening other posters and readers of this board ?

[greygeorge] 11/7/2022 14:55

scrwal, I'm not on the board, so can't answer any of your questions definitively. I would point out though that Glencore, for example, produce and trade commodities. Also, a year ago, DEC weren't in the business of capping wells for other companies, but have now evolved this side of their business. If in future the circumstances may favour some trading as well as production, I'm sure the board is far better positioned than ANY of us to take the company forward.

[garycook] 11/7/2022 13:23

s44,You need to sell up,and exit the Market.Your too impatience and sensitive,about short term pricing !!!

[sunbed44] 11/7/2022 08:12

Crazy low prices and sup 110p

[scrwal] 09/7/2022 16:44

The company presentation in May page 35 states that 90% of 2022 production is hedged at $3.15Mcfe and 2023 70% at $3.27Mcfe and 2024 55% at $3.02Mcfe.
"Corporate Btu factor of 1.07 should be used when converting Natural Gas pricing from MMBtu to Mcf" ie I think the $s above need to be divided by 1.07 but not sure.

[mrnumpty] 09/7/2022 16:20

Greygeorge . In stating the percentage of production which is hedged , I was quoting from memory , and it seems that I was partly wrong . My source is a tip sheet , which stated in its June 2022 edition “ DEC has hedged circa 90% of 2022 and 70% full-year 2023 forecast production at average US natural gas prices of US$ 3.17 / MMBTU ( that’s one million British Thermal Units ) and US$ 3.07 MMBTU respectively , against open market prices which have more than doubled since the hedge was taken out “ . I imagine that these figures are correct , as the editor of the tip sheet would fave carried out a thorough analysis of DEC before recommending the Company as a “ buy “ at about £ 1.23 . However , as the purpose of this chat site is to enlighten each other , I would be more happy if you can provide further information .

[scrwal] 09/7/2022 13:26

greygeorge

Well do DEC hold/halt their production as part of their normal operations even if they could?
Do DEC carry significant stocks of gas for any length of time apart from that in "transit"?
Do they do short term buy/sell hedging on a margin basis?
Is the actual book profit/cash flow greater from your idea than that generated if they let things ride?

I think you are using margin trading and trying to dovetail it into the day to day production aspects which isn't relevant or appropriate.
To make full use of the high gas prices physical production should be increased and the additional net cash flow used to acquire assets to replace said consumed production. There would be funds left over to allocate to other things.

Anyway your last post isn't reflecting the hedging model that DEC use anyway and is more relevant to a futures trader as you are banking on the spot falling which is not certain and the uncertainty does not follow DECs ethos either.

I'm not sure what you are trying to prove as the production is already hedged anyway. at much lower than current spot prices and so to carry production as stock by buying at spot which will exceed the sale price so makes no sense at all. Furthermore your point doesn't apply to unhedged production as that would has a far greater margin.

[greygeorge] 08/7/2022 23:23

Well, say, if I guaranteed to sell you x units of a commodity at y dollars, on 19th September 2022, and on 19th September 2022, I was able to purchase up to x units of said commodity at a spot price y - z dollars, then my company would make a profit of (y - z) dollars, the commodity would be delivered from the seller to my buyer, thereby allowing me to hold those units of said commodity that I'd originally sgreed to sell in my inventory for sale at a later date.

[scrwal] 08/7/2022 19:56

I'm confused - if the spot price falls why would DEC purchase on the spot market to fulfill sales already made???
My simplistic view is that any sales already made are at DECs hedged prices which are at a big discount to market prices so buying at spot will be above said prices and will cause a realised loss.

[greygeorge] 08/7/2022 18:59

numpty, IF (which I'm not sure you're correct about) 100% of DEC 2022 output is hedged, why are you hsppy to see spot prices climb ? I mean, DEC has to pay a production tax based on these spot prices, so IF 100% of DEC 2022 output is hedged (again, I don't think you know that you're talking about there), then lower spot natural gas prices would mean less production tax being paid by the company, plus if the spot price continued to drop, DEC could consider purchasing gas on the spot market, to fulfill sales already made, thereby reducing production form existing wells and extending the lifespan of existing reserves. But, basically I think your thinking is wrong, and ill-informed.