Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[holts] 07/7/2022 22:02

That’s the uncrossing trade .

[mrnumpty] 07/7/2022 20:05

Another big purchase today , according to the LSE site : 398,117 shares bought at 16.35 pm @ 111.4 p , for a total consideration of £ 443,500

[mrnumpty] 07/7/2022 19:00

Whilst I am fully aware that DEC’s output is hedged for some time ahead ( 100% this year and 70% next year , I believe ) , it’s pleasant to see that , at the moment , natural gas is up 13% at $ 6.22 .

[mrnumpty] 07/7/2022 08:47

Incidentally , for those who don't subscribe to a certain tip sheet , which I won't name , DEC was their front-page " buy " tip , at £ 1.23 . The magazine reached subscribers in late-May , so it seems highly plausible that a subsequent increase in purchases by subscribers to the magazine could account for the share price increase which then occurred , followed by the drop to current levels , as those immediate purchases faded away .

[mrnumpty] 07/7/2022 08:20

On page 23 of today's Telegraph , in the Business section , there's an article titled " Brussels backs move to label gas and nuclear investments ' green ' " . The article seems to contradict itself , so I presume that the writers expressed themselves badly . Anyway , the reasonably long article commences ' The European Parliament has approved plans to allow gas and nuclear energy investments to be labelled ' green ' as Brussels battles to meet zero targets . A total of 328 MEPs voted in favour of the move yesterday [ I wonder ion that should be " voted AGAINST " , as that is the overriding sense of the article ] , falling short of the 353 votes needed to block the new rules which will mean gas and nuclear power is included in Europe's so-called ' green taxonomy ' from next year . Nuclear and natural gas projects could now get subsidies and cheaper loans as a result of the European Commission's proposal , which will become law unless 20 of the EU's 27 member states oppose it ..... " . I suppose that , if this law is passed , it would ultimately be bad for DEC , as it would encourage greater natural gas production in Europe , but it will be some time before any new plants would be producing and , anyway , the move by Brussels illustrates the urgency of the gas and energy situation .

[asp5] 07/7/2022 06:55

The current market turbulence should provide DEC with a great opportunity to acquire assets at reasonable prices as their historic performance has shown.

I would expect better deals to be available later in the year as the financial turbulence plays out and liquidity issues start becoming an issue for companies. DEC need to continue their patient approach and only acquire when it makes sense and not rush into deals - would not be surprised if acqusitions are announced later in the year. Think the locking in of long term hedges to cover the ABS transactions has been a great move and provides excellent cashflow visibility at a time when I believe it will be highly valued.

Given the 13+% yield - its a great time to be accumulating shares in my views. At these rates I make a 100% return in ~6 years (assuming reinvest of div) excluding any capital appreciation. As said in my previous posts - short term market & portfolio moves create a great opportunity for those with available patient capital. DEC fundamentals have not changed.

[lomand] 06/7/2022 17:36

I agree although just reread transcript of Rusty's comments from 22/03 when he stated it was an option. Asset acquisition is obviously preferred route but there comes a point when stock buybacks make sense. I suppose we have to take his word that there are assets available at attractive prices. So far he has delivered.

[scrwal] 06/7/2022 12:33

Stock buy backs are off the table as they do not form part of the ARO plan.

Excess cash will be used for acquisitions to negate production declines and put toward the Pre-Fund ARO and Dividends Cash Account, albeit slightly in advance of expectations.

[lomand] 06/7/2022 10:08

With $400MM of liquidity, production hedged for the next 3 years at excellent margins, finance in place for further acquisitions and tight gas supplies generally you would think so. At some point, stock buy backs becomes most effective use of capital. Unless of course I am missing something..

[redtom1] 06/7/2022 09:41

Yield is currently 13%+. This is crazy value isn't it??

[mrnumpty] 06/7/2022 03:22

Asp5 . Thanks for the prompt , albeit nocturnal , clarification .

[asp5] 06/7/2022 00:56

mrnumpty - if you take a look at the trade tab at the top of the page at 09:57 you will see a trade for 1.7M shares at 113.15 which is marked as ? as it is exactly in the middle of the bid offer spread i.e. unclear if it was a buy or sell.

More importantly than if it was a buy or sell is the fact that there is a fund(s) or large investor(s) conducting activity that will skew the share price in the short term (depending on the nature of their activity).

As per my previous posts and examples this activity started around early/mid June. I believe the DEC share price is being impacted negatively by these activities rather than on any negative change to the fundamentals. Given the hedges we have in place changes to gas prices do not have a material impact on DEC so do not believe this to be the driver.

I am treating this as an opportunity to add to my position.

[cassini] 06/7/2022 00:20

I've had buys show as sells and vice versa before.

Just how reliable are the buy/sell figures?

I understood they are not primary data, they are a guess based on the spread at the time of the trade, but this can be wrong as I've confirmed with my own trades.

[mrnumpty] 05/7/2022 23:49

Asp5 . As I wrote just now , below , according to the LSE site , there were 505,548 DEC shares sold today , with 786,785 shares bought . However , you stated that there was a single trade of 1.7 million shares today , which obviously exceeds both figures ( indeed , you didn’t specify whether the 1.7 million share transaction was a buy or a sell ) . Could you please explain ? Thanks

[mrnumpty] 05/7/2022 23:34

Initially , today’s share price drop is unwelcome . However , stock markets fell today , together with most commodities ( oil fell quite badly ) . However , things are much more upbeat if you check the LSE site for DEC : volume of shares sold today 505,548 shares ( £ 565,261.01 ) , but volume of shares bought 786,785 shares ( £ 876,325.13 ) . LSE states that , at 16.35 today there was a purchase of 337,944 shares @ £ 1.10.6 ( £ 373,770 ) and there was another major trade at 18.02 of 180,737 shares ( £ 200,950 ) - although LSE does not state whether this was a purchase or a sale , the fact that the purchase price was £ 1.11.183 , being at the top of today’s range , indicates that this was another major purchase . I pointed out here that there was a large purchase last Friday at 16.35 . Question to asp5 : was the 1.7 million share transaction this morning which you referred to a buy or a sell ? Hopefully it was a buy !

[asp5] 05/7/2022 20:36

Another large 1,7M share transaction this morning. Looks like this activity needs to play out before a consistent rise in share price can take place. In the meantime I will look to take advantage of any dips.

[lomand] 05/7/2022 20:18

A nice asset acquisition by DEC would be welcome in the current environment. The more visibility of cash flow over the next few years the better.

[aleman] 05/7/2022 07:34

I thought the fall in mids and longs was pausing at the end of last week but they continue down so far this week.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[podgyted] 04/7/2022 17:15

Sorry I was actually thinking of Foreign Tax Credit Relief, but looking at it further I'm not so sure it can be used against UK zero tax items.

Best ignore me.

Apologies.

[greygeorge] 04/7/2022 13:55

redtom1, you are correct. The 'Double Taxation' convention is there to do exactly as the title suggests - It's there to avoid being taxed TWICE, it's not a scheme to get one country to refund an individual or organisations' tax liabality in another country.

[bluemango] 04/7/2022 12:43

Did a switch in my SIPP this morning, from an IT holding earning a quite respectable 5.10% yield and put it into DEC - and in the process more than doubled the income from that capital to around 12.69%. Obviously taking on more risk, but I believe there will be a renewed energy price squeeze towards the Autumn/Winter which will drive out-of-favour stocks like DEC higher. In the meantime being paid handsomely.

[3800] 04/7/2022 12:34

that was my understanding of it too redtom1

[redtom1] 04/7/2022 11:38

Podgyted,
Are you sure about claiming back withholding tax.
That is not my understanding.
If WHT is properly applied (ie 15%) by the US authorities I do not believe it is repayable under any circumstances.
WHT can be used as a credit against taxes due but I do not believe that you can claim it back just because no tax is due (ie within your £2000 divi limit).

[1knocker] 04/7/2022 09:09

you are not going to need to hold much DEC to go over that amount, even if you have no other divi income at all.

[renewed1] 04/7/2022 08:47

Very interesting point from Podgyted....so outside an ISA can claim back the full 30% up to £2000 without paying tax. Giving over 12% yield!! So potentially better than holding in ISA. Has anyone done this??