Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 14/6/2022 20:07

2023 contracts recovering a little so most only down 2-6% now. 2022's are still down 14-16% - but still at levels that would see DEC's limited residual unhedged production sell at extraordinary margins anyway.

[asp5] 14/6/2022 18:59

Given that we have hedged most of our 22 & 23 production, we are insulated from any immediate impacts to LNG processing capacity from a revenue perspective.

However it strikes me that this could be a very good time to be negotiating acquisitions if you have some liquidity to deploy :-)

[aleman] 14/6/2022 16:49

Reports do say that Freeport will be out for 3 months and only partially restored until the end of the year. I find that odd from the modest damage I saw but there you go. Gas flows from the Appalachia and Central regions generally go Northeast. I doubt DEC will use Freeport much if at all, though it might depend on individual contracts. Anybody any idea? I believe exports are generally restricted by the number of LNG ships available rather than liquifaction plants? If so, some southern US output could be diverted to load elsewhere - but is there pipeline capacity? This time of year, I'd guess most gas will go to local power stations to power air conditioning, while Freeport exports would probably be satisfied by local offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm just guessing, though, and happy to be corrected.

[aleman] 14/6/2022 16:20

Futures falls are large on shorter contracts but losses only extend out to about 2 years after which there are no price falls (as yet).


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December 2025


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[flyer61] 14/6/2022 15:23

All that Gas stuck in the states and not coming to Europe….makes you wonder if it was sabotage…

[push n run] 14/6/2022 15:06

Freeport LNG export terminal in the US will be out for a few months. Gas collapsing in the US, spiking in Europe.

[rogerramjett] 14/6/2022 15:02

Funny how it knocks the share price here when more or less everything is hedged.

[apollocreed1] 14/6/2022 14:49

US NG down 17% in just a few minutes. What happened?

[redtom1] 14/6/2022 14:44

What just happened to price of NG?

[seanworld] 14/6/2022 12:06

We will all be paying the price soon. Still hopeful for now that the debt market meltdown is not just yet. Expecting a FED pivot at some point next few weeks.

[tom111] 14/6/2022 11:38

lol interest rates have been abnormal low I remember when they were 14% we should never have got to where we are now.Average rates were 5% - 8% before now we are paying the price.

[seanworld] 13/6/2022 20:34

That volatility thingy, could be closer to seeing drops like never before if the debt market implodes!

10 year yield currently 3.437! Jeezus .

[woodhawk] 13/6/2022 19:16

Re volatility - if you take out the CV19 drop in 2019, the share price has probably moved roughtly only 10% either side of the mean since mid -2017. What on earth did you expect? In my book, that is pretty bloody stable.If investing was that *easy* we'd all be billionaires. And, in the end analysis, whether or not you have "bought more than any of you" (and, frankly, you have no idea whatsoever what anyone's holding is, so why pretend you do?), you can sell up and move on if you don't agree with what the company is doing any longer.

[lab305] 13/6/2022 18:57

Well that was predictable. I started buying these on 23 June 2017 and bought around 500k shares over the next six months. I have probably been here longer and bought more than any of you. Their idea of buying old long life low decline wells appealed to me and the stock performed well rising to 1.32 in 2018. There was no hedging , real profit's and no dividend, but who cared when my average was 65p and they got to 1.32p. I bought an apple and it tasted like an apple for two years, then it became a pear. I am sick of the sycophantic rubbish and in some cases complete lack of historical knowledge exhibited by some on this thread. Low volatility !! You have to be joking !!! Just check the graph over the last 5 years. Up and down like a yo-yo.
I lost count of the times it lost 10% over a couple of days. Blogger, Bloomberg report, covid , placing ( a self inflicted disaster )
We have had initiative after initiative, change of name, main market listing, change of auditor etc. and none have worked.
US listing is the next idea and let's hope that works . Worst of all though is the hedging , insidiously creeping year on year until we have little chance at all to take any advantage of increasing prices. Contrary to what many believe we did not have to sell off all the family silver to borrow from the banks . The position that we are now in showed appalling lack of judgement. We are in a straight jacket , unable to capitalise fully on the higher gas prices for years.
We have diverted from our original concept of old long life low decline wells where for around four years these legacy assets gas output stayed level , to newer shale wells and consequently our output falls much faster. In order to replace this we have to buy more wells just to maintain production.
The last deal was an excellent one but prices will have rocketed together with the gas they produce .Unfortunately due to our constraints the rocketing profits we should by enjoying are not there to buy them.

[asp5] 13/6/2022 12:19

Currently Bitcoin down over 10%, FTSE 250 down over 2% and pound now below 1.22 . Cannot think of a better share to own right now - real assets, with real cashflow that is protected providing a real return vs inflation with plenty of dry powder to make accretive acquisitions.

DEC share price has held up well (relatively speaking) over last 6 months.

[woodhawk] 13/6/2022 11:40

Quite right,1knocker. Too many blame a company they themselves decided to become a part owner of for their own inaction and/or lack of judgement. If lab305, doesn't like the way this company does business, then the answer is in his own hands. Unfortunately, it is far easier to whine endlessly in a forum than to take positive action, realise your own error, and move on.

[1knocker] 13/6/2022 11:15

During the four years since the share price was 132, how much have you collected in dividends? Its the total return which matters. If the price is down when this month's dividend is paid, I know where mine is going. If anyone has a low boredom threshold and wants a bit more volatility in his portfolio at present, there are plenty of unhedged gas producers he can sell his DEC holding and buy instead. If you want an apple, buy an apple, don't buy a pear and complain that it does not taste like an apple.

[asp5] 13/6/2022 10:35

Lab its only ~12 months since the last equity raise of 20% of the share capital of DEC. Markets need to see evidence of change which will only be visible in the upcoming reports once the $500M of liquidity has been put to use and our independent ESG audits are out.

Back in May 2019 when share price was ~1,30 the market cap was ~890M. Today we are at ~1,050M. This is an 18% uptick in Mkt Cap - spread over 3 years - approx 6% pa add in the div of ~11% then as a rough proxy we have gained ~17% pa returns over this period.

This period was when we had the headwinds of the ESG topic, regular dilution based on the old DEC business model, concern over capping costs etc. - a highly negative period.

We are now in a period where we should benefit due to ESG being addressed, a switch to a non dilutive ABS approach and our plugging costs reducing due to being subsidized & more efficient. This is starting to be reflected in broker upgrades which I believe have a lot further to go and eventually the share price.

DEC has been clear from day 1 on its approach and offer to shareholders, however if you want the volatility of returns as per traditional E&P firms then you are owning the wrong stock.

[lab305] 13/6/2022 08:40

Well all this talk about the price of oil and gas is irrelevant since we have sold most of the next five years production off for around half of what we could have today. The share price says it all . Four years on from when we were at 1.32p and today at 1.21p. I believe that Rusty said that they were going to concentrate on improving the share price this year. Well I'm still waiting.

[mrnumpty] 13/6/2022 08:14

An editorial in today’s Telegraph states “ The last thing the world needs at the moment is another conflict in a region that produces significant quantities of oil and gas . Yet developments in the Gulf should cause alarm . Israel’s prime minister Naftali Bennett believes Iran is now ‘ dangerously close ‘ to completing its nuclear weapons programme …. Israel has made it clear that it will not allow Iran to become a nuclear weapons state “ . It seems pretty unambiguous that , if it considers that other , peaceful efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear programme have failed , then Israel will launch a pre-emotive military strike . The likelihood of this happening is increased by the claim by the Telegraph that “ Iran’s rulers may have concluded that if they want [ sanctions ] lifted , they should complete the programme and negotiate from a position of strength “ . The only ones incapable of seeing the implications of this for the price of hydrocarbons are out Numpty politicians .

[woodhawk] 13/6/2022 08:08

3.43p per share. Nice!

[asp5] 13/6/2022 07:52

Dividends due end of month. The current GBP/USD exchange rate of 1,23 also means the current 17c annualised div is still yielding 11% (for those who collect in USD) even after the share price appreciation over the last 6M.

Given the recent inflation report out of the US, it looks like the FED will continue to raise interest rates by 50 bps or more in each of the upcoming sessions so I expect USD strength to continue for now.

[sunbed44] 13/6/2022 07:34

Decisions decisionsUK economy shrinks as firms battle higher prices https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61780450