Distil Share Discussion Threads

[janekane] 21/10/2020 14:27

Daz “simply Wall Street “

[daz1712] 21/10/2020 13:05

Where is the Real Mr Big? Holding 1%🤔Interesting list of holders anyway where is this available btw

[janekane] 21/10/2020 11:36

Trouble with some posters here is they will never admit that their blinkered view is flawed
These figures are from September 2020
Why don’t you except the other posters comments on the way this penny dreadful is viewed in the market
If I posted in red print one poster here would say it was green
I suggest this poster gets his head out of the sods and look at the real world
Regards the comments about millions of shares changing hands
What school did he attend it was certainly low on the arithmetic tutorial


Shares traded
2,096,685
16/10/20

4,968,751
15/10/20

61,450
14/10/20

[petersinthemarket] 21/10/2020 09:59

This is a confusing list; some of it is inaccurate - one or more holders left the list several years ago - some figures are missing - some figures are double counted. If you are presenting this as a definitive holders list, you are misleading yourself and others.

As to millions changing hands - I must have missed that - it is true that a few chunky trades in the 100's thousands have changed hands in recent weeks, but millions? I think this is exaggerating the position.

From my own data, I do believe that the free float is below 25%, but I don't know the real figure any more than you do.

You seem to think it is ok to post inaccurate data to back up your views. It used to amuse me to tussle with your negative chipping away, but it's gradually getting more annoying, so I think I'll pass on this one.

LATER EDIT: looks like the list I disputed in #8823 has been deleted.

[janekane] 21/10/2020 08:00

15% shares in free float

[someuwin] 20/10/2020 19:47

Good to see they've given the old RedLeg website a total refresh. Looks a lot better and a good indicator that things are on the up - imo

[neo2725] 20/10/2020 19:27

Recently invested here after the update last week. I like this company and the fact the products are in a range of stores both high (John Lewis) and low (Iceland) incomes. A previous comment about advertising spend not carrying on due to low funds, their products are out there and building a base, once established and brand loyalty kicks in plus the low cost of the product compared to rivals I think this will go from strength to strength IMO. Any thoughts on DIS being taken over by one of the big boys? Would be a shame as I this this could grow and grow, think of red bull 10/15 years ago and it’s a household name now

[petersinthemarket] 20/10/2020 12:53

Jane, I note that your #8783 received no response regarding stock overhang. I can hardly believe that you don't already know the answer to this, so maybe I'm putting my head in the noose, but I'm going to respond as if it was a serious question in case some newbies dont know.

A stock overhang is a large chunk of shares which would cause havoc if put onto the market in one go. A lot of newly freed stock being suddenly available would inevitably send the share price down.

It often becomes known if an investor, most likely an institutional holder, wants to offload a large part of it's holding. A good example we saw most of a year ago was Miton readjusting its DIS holdings. Luckily we had someone waiting in the wings who wanted them. Another was a couple of years ago when the government tried to offload a chunk of RBS shares it held after the earlier bailing out. Knocked hell out of RBS stock for some while as no one really wanted to buy. It sometimes also happens when company insiders decide to sell off a tranche of shares they were previously granted.

For as long as it takes to dispose of a large quantity the share price will normally get held back.
I am not aware of any overhang on DIS shares.
If you were trying to make some particular point, I missed it, so perhaps you would explain.
pete

[petersinthemarket] 20/10/2020 12:31

A modest chunk just (11:48:53) been printed. 400,000sh at 1.25 which some sites are showing as a sell (spread 1.20/1.35). We know it has to be off book but LSE shows no trade flag so we don't know if it's today or not. It's only £5k's worth, but trades of this size are becoming fewer. If anyone is hoping to accumulate a decent holding, it's getting much more difficult.

[petersinthemarket] 20/10/2020 12:16

Jane - Your point in #8815 is very well made, but providing a satisfying response to your question is difficult. Pro and anti contributors alike here observe the same daily frustration that you highlight. Holders long for the day when buyers come beating at the door. Knockers keep implying it's not going to happen.

I suspect in the end that an attempt at an answer might come down to glass half empty, glass half full. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the finances, the management, the products, or the continuing ambitions of the company. It is growing well and imo will continue to grow, just not fast enough for everyone.

I would paint myself as a realist, with a slight tendency towards optimism, hence glass half full. Perhaps others are more pessimistic and don't believe in a company until it is already seen to be successful with it's shares commanding a high and rising share price

As for your main point ''why are we not getting more investors..? I wish I knew, but I would guess that as things stand there is little room left for many more large investors. We know we already have several declared large holders including management and I believe that very many more have lesser undeclared holdings.

We commonly see a more or less daily pattern where a few people punt and a few people get bored and move out.

But when good news is published the sudden scramble for shares implies that there is not a lot of free stock available and the share price rises quite markedly. Good news also seems to bring out a few more of the very many lurkers on here who may have reasonable holdings, but who have no wish to join in the daily banter.

If you look at this year's chart, the share price is rising in a very healthy stepwise fashion. Nothing wrong with this stock - but still more patience needed. pete

[daz1712] 19/10/2020 13:06

Let’s say the revenue for the full year is 5mill with a 10% retained PBT giving 500k. This would be excellent, however the it’s still only 500k divided by the shares in issue. So it’s not a company most investment funds would want and an individual investor can’t build up a big stake of say 5% easily as available stock issues would send the shares sky high, so that’s why I think the shares are trading on a low earnings ratio

[janekane] 19/10/2020 12:28

So why are we not getting more investors ,is there any reasonable answer that makes investment here a problem
The way you’ve posted your opinions on our companies future looks rosy
Why isn’t the market reacting in a positive way
Every thing looks rosy but lack on investors is very worrying
Little gems always shine
This one looks like there is a shortage of polish

[berny3] 18/10/2020 15:24

Doing a few more observations. Look at the trading strength of the business.

Trade receivables compared to last year

2020 £1,157,00
2019 £379,000
That is being funded through reduction in cash £266,000 and increase in payables £233,000.

This shows the profitability in the business. £499,000 allocation of cash is funding £778,000 of revenue.

Taking payables away from inventories, receivables and cash gives

2020 £1,776,000
2019 £1,465,000

If you remove cash and just look at inventories, receivable less payables

2020 £1,206,000
2019 £ 629,000

What this shows is the opportunity for cash to be used in the business to generate growth. We are seeing almost a doubling from last year.

Cash balances were £570,000 at end of period showing excess cash available illustrating the company is not cash starved to fund this growth rate.

Lots of great stuff in these figures, and shows the company is thriving in a difficult market, will be taking market share and building brand awareness and longevity.

A very strong and positive future in my opinion.

[berny3] 17/10/2020 08:14

DC - assuming no change in net profit margin at 8%. That means for every £1 in revenue equates to 8p on the bottom line.

2 scenarios
1. No change in 2nd half revenue growth from last year
£3,685,000 revenue Net profit £278,807 current pe 23
2. Same growth rate in sales over H1 translated tonH2
£5,563,340 revenue Net profit £445,460 current pe 14

My thoughts somewhere in between. I think margins will improve in H2 due to costs being lower as there has been investment H1 which will take until H2 to translate to revenue.

I think sales will increase yoy H2

On first case we should be trading at 9-10mln market cap
On second case we should be trading slightly better 20-25mln market cap

Any buyout premium would be a multiple of those numbers.

Either way trading at 6.5mln market cap is an opportunity to fill your boots. Good luck all and a good week ahead.

[dietcoke197] 17/10/2020 00:08

That's assuming:
1) No improvement in margin from H1
2) continuing 30% of sales for Adv/promo
3) H2 contributing 60% of FY sales
4) 20K extra on admin

[dietcoke197] 17/10/2020 00:02

Anyone prepared to have a stab at the full year??

Here's my go.

Sales uplift% 37.1%
Gross margin 55.0%
Promo spend % 30%

Revenue 3878
Cost of sales -1747
Gross Profit 2131

Promo costs -1165
Other admin - 644
Total admin -1809

Op Profit 322
Profit change% 76.9

[petersinthemarket] 16/10/2020 22:09

Two moderately chunky trades today:
500,000 at 1.33 and 772, 366 at 1.30, both LRGS
Spread today 1.20/1.35, so both above mid price,
Getting more difficult to pick up very large amounts in one go, but frequent accumulation in modest chunks with a bit of patience might still get you there.
A 1% increase in holding would require 5,020,000 shares.

[petersinthemarket] 16/10/2020 21:40

Spam alert - sohaa3 filtered

[dave4545] 16/10/2020 21:20

Spam above

All twitter users should block this account it belongs to smallcappick

[daz1712] 16/10/2020 20:51

Anybody else got any predictions for full year next April?
Revenue
PBT

[gleach23] 16/10/2020 17:47

Good to see the underlying Bid firm from 1.2p to 1.25p late afternoon, no doubt helped by the 500k buy @ 1.33p. Roll on Monday.