Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[pete160] 24/3/2024 17:01

and for all of those reasons above, my view is that DLG will end the week at around 190p
There will be a drop tomorrow, of course there will, but don't forget it's not as if DLG was trading anywhere near the bid level in any case - the market was already disbelieving that the bidder was going to be victorious.
The shakeout tomorrow will be just that, a shakeout, whilst the traders and the nervous head for the exit, whilst those that perhaps see this as a heads you win, tails you win turnaround story will support the price from returning to where it was pre-bid interest.

[pander45] 24/3/2024 14:01

It's still very vulnerable for further bids.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/3/2024 08:13

Could be a tin hat day Monday, but we are in a much stronger position than before in FY2022, the dividend albeit small at 4 pence is there for holders to have, 2024 will be better still, and AGS put their own valuation of 233/237 pence on the share as it was pre-results..

We get what we get in the morning, but the turnaround strategy can only aid the recovery, supported by further results..

[nellynell] 24/3/2024 07:33

Mr Winslow a confident man with his reassuring words in the results....I have transformed legacy businesses before and understand what it takes to win in general insurance. There are immediate actions we can take in 2024 to address some of the gaps and deliver quick wins.

[wba1] 23/3/2024 21:18

hi elbruss; Lancashire also operate a Bermuda reinsurer (as well as London and other operations). It is the periodic capital returns in the form of specials which make it attractive and seems like a model which would work for others.

Pander; an easier call for me with a low average. If I had been in at a 200 average I would probably have run the bet on a new bid. But whilst I suspect the game may be over with Ageas it may not be with other players. Another bid may emerge but that could be at any time over the next year.

[nellynell] 23/3/2024 19:36

We go ex dividend on 4th April. May the Dividends long continue :-)

[pander45] 23/3/2024 18:44

Good call on cashing out wba. Nice trade. Monday will be a bit painful I suspect but I do also expect a recovery over the next 18 months and to hit the 235-240 range.

[elbrus55] 23/3/2024 17:40

Thanks for comments .I read the accounts and if anybody offered me 190p to sell on Monday I would bite their hands off . (Although u have sold all my stock on Thurday)CRE is a rather different kettle of fish, they are Bermuda reinsurance co..

[jrphoenixw2] 23/3/2024 17:03

Jugears/1366^: 'IMO nothing is dead in the wood until that deadline passes which I believe is Wednesday'

Yep, my notes have it as Wednesday 5pm.

[wba1] 23/3/2024 16:44

elbruss55; what you say about pricing is true but especially in the aggregator channel. In the direct channel there is the added factor of propensity to buy which can be factored in. There are several quite sophisticated suppliers of software and models which do this. It pretty much started with Earnix 20 years ago and I know DLG used them at one time. Not sure who they use now (or if they rely on in house).

I am sorry for those who bet on an increased offer but still expect the share price to recover to close to the offer level over the next 12-18 months. I will look to get back in if the price goes to circa 190. I would probably have been happy to buy in at anything below 200 except that I used spare funds to top up Phoenix following results. My broader advice would be not to get too greedy on DLG (unless another bidder emerges). The 2024 results will be greatly improved and 2025 better still, but motor price rises have stalled and I think 2025 will be the peak profit year for the market in motor. Of course, DLG has a lot of improvement possible, not just in motor pricing but in both processes and other lines so may be better placed to manage the next downturn in the pricing cycle. But it is and will remain heavily exposed to the motor pricing cycle. Still, if it can be bought at 190 I would be happy to cash out if it reaches 235 sometime in the next 18 months.

Good luck all.

ps; elbruss55; I hold LRE (and have done so for circa 10 years without trading). I do so for its dividend record which is volatile but a high average due to periodic returns of surplus capital as specials. I am not as familiar with Conduit. Do they follow a similar approach?

[elbrus55] 23/3/2024 16:40

Comments on this Group seem.bazarre.It seems like many people have little understanding of how insurance actually works , combined ratios, earned premium, GWP, the whole concept of 'underwriting' etc.Is that unfair?I sold out on Thursday but have other insurance stocks including CREM

[jugears] 23/3/2024 15:10

I think that with the new manager this could turn round quite rapidly, everyone was dismissive of Rolls Royce's new CEO but over the last 12 moths the company has turned round & the share price has gone from below £1 to £4.20.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/3/2024 15:03

Looks like we are invested for the turnaround now, but AGS valued us at 233/237 pence, and we now have a 4 pence FY dividend coming with H1 hopefully improving on the FY..

Q1-2024 trading update early May for starters..

[jugears] 23/3/2024 15:01

Probably trying to call Dlg's bluff, this happened years ago to a company I was invested in, then just as the deadline was about to pass they came back with a higher bid, despite saying they wouldn't ,IMO nothing is dead in the wood until that deadline passes which I believe is Wednesday, but TBF probably going to see a better long term return if they are not taken over.

[pander45] 23/3/2024 09:29

Disappointing news.

[dope007] 23/3/2024 08:33

just took this off my favourites and now will put it back on. Expect it to dump and drift so will keep an eye on it. Thanks goodness this bid let me get out over 200p, but it could be a decent buy at some point again.

[elbrus55] 23/3/2024 03:10

It is not as simple as premiums too high or too low. You need to be able to calculate an accurate premium for every potential customer based on how likely they are to claim. They have not done this as well as their competitors recently. Some premiums need to be increased and some reduced but they don't know which are which.You also need claims systems so they don't pay over the odds for repairs or injury claims, and identify any fraud.

[tuftymatt] 22/3/2024 21:26

Oh well and it's back to waiting for the turnaround.

Not one to check on Monday morning in my opinion!!

Good luck all 👍🏻

[boix] 22/3/2024 21:22

Even rejected deal not priced in.
Will dip but more?
Direct Line ADR closed down 7.8% tonight in NY trading so it makes London price tonight c.195p - In theory that’s Monday open?

[nellynell] 22/3/2024 19:12

Full your boots time come Monday Xmas has come early hehehehe

[carpingtris] 22/3/2024 19:05

What we need are directors buys showing they have faith! As in back up there confidence going forwards by putting some of the own £'s into it..

Especially as they rejected offers.

[jrphoenixw2] 22/3/2024 19:02

From the source, announcment re: offer for DLG withdrawn


This came out post London close, 19.30hrs CET. = Tin hats on for Monday?

[skinny] 22/3/2024 18:48

The Board of Direct Line Group (the "Board") notes the announcement from Ageas confirming that it does not intend to make an offer for Direct Line Group. As a result, Ageas is bound by the restrictions set out in Rule 2.8 of the Takeover Code.

The Board is confident in Direct Line Group's standalone prospects. As communicated at Direct Line Group's 2023 preliminary results on 21 March 2024, the Board believes under Adam Winslow's leadership the Company is well-positioned to drive material improvement in performance that is expected to unlock significant value for Direct Line Group shareholders.