Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[carpingtris] 07/3/2024 20:14

Would Generali be interested in DLG?

[wba1] 07/3/2024 19:18

The most interesting news today is the story about Generali's interest in takeovers up to half their market cap, so a max of perhaps £15 billion. But in the Indie the list of those they are looking at includes Ageas (as well as Aviva), which would be a relatively comfortable bite. This means that Ageas have an interest in fattening up in order to avoid being eaten themselves. If they pull back now their vulnerability to a bid is increased. I guess this is one reason for the DLG price edging up further. My view is that Ageas makes a much more attractive target than Aviva simply because the latter would be right at the top end of their appetite and more likely to become an auction.

[nellynell] 07/3/2024 13:21

Ffs the down ticker is back. Reveal yourself!!!!!

[carpingtris] 07/3/2024 13:11

Who is buying up all these shares? have Ageas increased any holding?

[tuftymatt] 07/3/2024 12:54

I don't think so based on the size of rise but it's another good day as a holder.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[pander45] 07/3/2024 12:43

Incoming news?

[tuftymatt] 07/3/2024 12:06

Yes and the fact we had a mild winter should have helped.

OK it was wetter than normal so let's hope flooding issues were not too elevated but burst pipe damage / car crashes due to ice must have dropped in a huge way.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[nellynell] 07/3/2024 11:48

So Admiral have released a pretty solid set of results today. Profits up mainly because of increased prices for policies and a increase in the solvency ratio of 20%. Should give us an idea of where we might be with direct line.

[elbrus55] 06/3/2024 16:43

The most positive thing I can see is that the Ageas share price is holding up well.It suggest that their shareholders are happy with the potential acquisition.Note the ageas will require support from the Belgian regulator, UK regulator, UK competition authority, their own shareholder, DLG shareholders and their lenders to go ahead.It is a lot of hurdles!The market appears to be pricing in about a 50/50 chance of this going through. (The share price is about half way between a 'walk away' price of 170p and a realistic acquisition price of 270p)..

[vikingwarrier] 06/3/2024 10:31

High demand her6e

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/3/2024 07:34

We are 22.7 pence light on dividends at least from 2023, anything would be better than a miss, but clearly there is a lot of catching up to do if the BOD want to demonstrate to the market their future intentions and strengthen the SP, giving holders a reason to hold the equity going forward..

[elbrus55] 06/3/2024 07:16

Yes, looking at it a bit more closely you would expect both a special dividend AND a reinstatement of the dividend with the FY resultsSomething like a 10p Special and reinstating dividends at 60% of historical levels seems plausible. Obviously actual numbers will depend a lot on the results.

[vikingwarrier] 06/3/2024 06:58

for me any bidder would want this wrapped up before any results. Any decent boards first defence would be to throw the kitchen sink into those results thus boosting the final price. We shall see. I;m calling the final bid at 275p

[zimbtrader] 06/3/2024 05:34

I topped up my holding yesterday as I can't imagine a scenario where a potential predator has made a single offer, been rebuffed and walks away. This goes one of four ways;1. A revised offer has already been made and is being considered by the Board2. A revised offer comes ahead of results3. They wait until the results are announced then make a revised offer4. They simply walk away (and the share price tanks regardless of the results)Personally, I think we'll see a revised offer worth between 250 and 255 but less convinced that a third and final offer will be made should that be rejected

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/3/2024 18:13

DLG would have saved around GBP300M on the missed dividend payouts which would go a long way to restoring the CSR, plus the asset sale of the commercial unit..

Nice run on the share price this afternoon, smells of a raised offer..? .. :o)

[elbrus55] 05/3/2024 15:24

They sold a commercial lines business late last year so should have a very strong capital ratio at year end. (190%?) and in a good position to resume dividendsHowever, if the motor business is still loss making or borderline they be cautious about the level of dividend.The market knows all this, so don't expect a big share price just because they restart dividends.

[pete160] 05/3/2024 15:23

You would hope that they can find some money in the coffers given the money they saved from completely cutting out the previous dividends and also then selling the commercial business for 500+ million.

We only have preliminary results on Mar 26th so they can opt for announcing a relatively small dividend at that stage but talk up the final dividend amount and beyond (whilst no doubt adding in the usual caveats about 'hope', 'anticipate', 'seek to' and this year 'if we still have a job')

[huckers] 05/3/2024 14:55

True. But reserving is a dark art and perhaps they can give a very nominal dividend. Failing that they may opt for language that promises something worth waiting for.

[tuftymatt] 05/3/2024 14:54

Not so sure it would get signed off if not financially possible.

Don't get me wrong I see your point and like the idea of it so fingers crossed.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[elbrus55] 05/3/2024 14:52

The dividend policy is largely determined by the need to target a capital ratio of 160%. In turn that is influenced by how much profit they make over time and their volume of business. They've published this and told the regulator that is what they are going to do. They are unlikely target a short-term share price reaction, or contradict what they've said they will do. Nobody enjoys an unexpected visit from the regulator.

[alex1621] 05/3/2024 13:21

I think they will be forced into reinstating a dividend and talking up the medium term prospects, because if an offer north of 270p arrives I'm not sure why any shareholder, retail or institutional, would remain loyal to the Board.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/3/2024 13:17

IF the dividend is reinstated, we would be back up to 225 pence PDQ without any interest from AGS for starters..

Not long to go to find out on both counts.. :o)