Evening NMRN
I think nearly everyone is aware of the person that is responsible for the OCD level of downticking across large swathes of ADVFN. He's been at it for a a very long time now and everyone pretty much just discounts a red thumbs down from every post, thus negating the point of doing it in the first place 🤷a94;️
Sad individual with nothing better to do really |
Good evening all,
I was flicking through some of the previous posts on this thread and noticed an astonishing coincidence.
89 of the last 100 posts have at least 1 thumbs down vote. The remaining 11 posts are the only exceptions and, unbelievably, they were all posted by the same person!
I spoke to a high level mole I know at MI5 and he has given me the posters name but I am unable to tell you for fear of my mole being discovered.
NMRN |
jrphoenix,
Aviva price = £5.10 x 0.2867 = £1.46
Cash per share =£1.297
Value of bid = £2.759
Possible max dividend £0.05
Max bid value (at todays price)£2.809
Obviously if Aviva price changes up or down the total bid value will follow in the same direction but the percentage of the share price (28.67) and the cash element (£1.297) are set in stone.
Hope this helps,
NMRN |
12:44hrs today, from rolling business news/Telegraph - 'Aviva jumped 3.5pc after JP Morgan upgraded its rating of the insurer to “overweight” from “neutral”.'
FWIW my notes from just pre the bid, 27/11/24: DLG was 158.78, Av. was 489.3. If I have all correct that presently implies a bid value of 287p
ps. Link for those who might also now want to keep a weather-eye on Aviva |
At current Aviva price of £5.10, the offer is worth £2.75. |
Dumped at 265.7. Pleased with 5%. |
Might sell out on my 251 merger arbitrage position if l can get around 263.5. FTSE breaking news highs. |
Only holding a small amount as I and others await the magic 270 level.
The current turmoil in the bonds and gilts which I am reading about will I am sure have an impact
Is a moot point but under the present circumstances what is the worst that could happen maybe adjustment of the price in line with the confusion presently enveloping
the market at the moment.
Has anyone got any thoughts .
Tread warily for now
Enjoy the weekend everyone
Good luck next week |
DLG may be just behind Imp Tobacco on 2024 gain but there was an additional opportunity for an easy profit on the Ageas bid - so DLG was the winner for most. |
BPC10,
I don't think this has been referred to regulators. It might not be necessary given the not unreasonable market shares achieved after integration.
ALL imho,
NMRN |
Waiting for 270p. |
When will regulators likely approve the takeover? |
Just running some of my annual numbers this pm. Was interested to see DLG was +40% year-on-year. Only just pipped at the post by Imperial Tobacco at +41%.
The above were tempered by the energy sector, notably SSE -14% and Shell -4%. Ironic in some ways as the energy sector has been quite a post-Covid recovery theme, supposedly compounded by Russian oil being widely embargoed.
DLG + IMB...help make up for a pretty bleak 2022 + 2023! Let's hope DLG get through their merger without undue delay.
[Benchmarks, FTSE100 +5.7%/yr, FTSE250 +4.7%/yr]
Good luck all! |
Sold out this morning for a small profit.
Can now use the proceeds towards other undecided as yet investments.
Hope all have a Happy New Year :) |
The main risk to the success of the takeover is none of the matters mentioned. I agree savings will be greater than stated and whilst integration will have bumps on the road it will not be a showstopper. And due diligence should have removed obvious financial risks such as DLG still having black holes in reserves.
The biggest risk to success is a collapse in retention rates. The value of the business into the future lies in being able to both retain the existing DLG business and use its market position to help drive new business. A failure of the former crushes the value of DLG to Aviva (and is the reason why, historically, valuation of insurers getting their business through non-controlled channels like brokers and aggregators is so much less). It will be an interesting challenge for Aviva. |
I believe av has got a good deal with dlg.
The remaining issues at dlg are already on the way to being resolved or will be very quickly.
The scope for synergies and removal of costs at dlg will be greater than the estimated £125m.
The combination of av and dlg builds their market share and competitive (pricing) position
There is a risk that av. Might struggle to integrate dlg, but I don't believe that it will.
Under Blanc, av appears a well managed company and they have not forgotten that a strong and growing dividend is critical. It is the market which means that the price is not higher to reflect this.
At some point, there is always the chance that a bigger fish will swallow aviva. |
Pete160
Serious how do you work out the buy condition for Av ?
I hold both thinking of topping up but for the life of me cant work out the play |
Pete you make a good point. I'm looking for around 260 for me to sell out. |
Nelly, or looking at it another way, the longer the cma take to decide, the longer av. shareholders will collect undiluted dividends (which are higher than dlg).
If dlg ticks up another couple of pence between now and the first week of the New Year (as i suspect av will do) I think its time to sell dlg and switch to Av. |
Well the longer the CMA take the more likely we are to pick up additional dividends from dlg as stated In the formal offer RNS. |
The interesting issue which commentators have ignored when opining on the competition issues is the need for Aviva to bulk up to be able to compete on a level playing field. Aviva are a medium size local insurer who may be big in the UK but are competing with the UK arms of the biggest insurers in the western world in the shape of Allianz, Axa and one or two others. Either Allianz or Axa could, if their global HQ deemed it a good idea, simply use its global financial power to build a far stronger position in a local market such as the UK than Aviva can achieve by this takeover. I am not saying they would do this, only that it is that power the CMA should factor into their view of the takeover. I expect the CMA to waffle around for some time, as they usually do, but not intervene materially in the end given the still relatively small market share (20% is small by the standards of other industries) and the competitive power of other major insurers should they wish to exercise it. |
Not read anything yet and unfortunately our most reliable source of information, Stevensupertrader, is no longer posting here.
I suppose we'll just have to wait for RNS.
Merry Xmas,
NMRN |
Any talk yet whether the Competition and Market Authority are going to stick their oar in here? |
I was also surprised about that, no mention whatsoever on the BBC business news today. |
Register for streaming realtime charts, analysis tools, and prices.
Hot Features
Premium
