Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[elbrus55] 11/3/2024 17:43

Aviva: did you forget the £8bn of group debt?You'd be lucky to £100m for Aviva Investors as a stand alone company. When Aviva had a life insurance company the regulator made them choose their investment manager independently of Group influence and AI got very little because performance/cost wasn't great. Any decent staff there will walk out very quickly and what else do they actually have of value?

[huckers] 11/3/2024 13:47

I am a seller at around 275p. I don't struggle to find alternative investment candidates. And even keeping your powder dry in cash is worthwhile at the moment.

[wba1] 11/3/2024 13:39

I can understand those leaning to giving DLG a chance to turn around, although my view is that being a near monoline personal lines operator in a highly cyclical market makes that a leap of faith. I would certainly take 270p. I cannot understand the comments about there not being other insurers with as attractive dividend prospects. Putting to one side the questions of when and at what level DLG divis will be reintroduced, it is easy to buy Aviva at a 7% yield (and I have it as well as DLG). It is interesting to use recent DLG valuations to look at Aviva.

Aviva has a current market cap of £15 billion. Looking at the different business lines;
Av has circa £3bn of UKPL compared to the £3.4bn for DLG. That suggest a value of £3bn for that business line.
Av has £3.2 bn of UKCL compared to circa £0.65bn for DLG NIG. That suggests a value of £3bn for that business line.
Av has £4.3bn of Canadian GI GWP. Worth £4bn?
Av still has international interests in China, India and Singapore worth £1.5bn?
Av Investors must be worth £1bn
Av Insurance Wealth and Retirement makes over £1bn pa in operating profit and nearer £2bn in operating value added. It must be worth £10bn plus.
Add that lot together and you get a sum of parts of £22.5bn plus - 50% ahead of current market cap (and I am being conservative by ignoring bid premiums and the value of strong market positions in both the UK and Canada.

What is the relevance to us? Firstly it demonstrates that you can invest elsewhere in the sector for a very nice yield which is strongly asset backed and in a more diversified company with a solid recent record. So there is no need to support DLG due to lack of other options. Secondly, this suggests that if Generali are looking for prey then it will not be Aviva as the price would be much too high for their firepower. That pushes Ageas up their target list and makes a deal for Ageas with DLG an even higher priority than otherwise.

[elbrus55] 11/3/2024 09:41

Unlikely, as they sold part of their business which is a.chunk of their profits gone. You may get a special dividend for that but it is just a small one-off payment.+I'm sure the FCA didn't change the pricing rules for personal lines insurance to make insurers more profitable.

[alex1621] 11/3/2024 08:40

The point to consider is whether any dividend will be as attractive as before? I very much doubt that.

[nellynell] 10/3/2024 18:47

Pete I solely blame Penny and her team for the issues in direct line. Like I previously stated the Dividends were very attractive and for a long while direct line was a share I could buy and forget. I'm very confident the next set of results will kitchen sink any outstanding issues and soon it will all be in the rear view mirror. A 300p offer is a substantial 6 figure payout for me but will I then find an insurer in the ftse who paid Dividends as attractive as direct line? I doubt it so I for one will be voting against any takeover

[carpingtris] 10/3/2024 18:11

Let's see what this week brings.. interesting times. :)

[pete160] 10/3/2024 17:25

nelly,
You're presuming that DLG won't make the same mistake disastrous again and that the new management team (once in place) will also completely clear out the entire, inept set of people and systems that caused the issue in the first place?

Completely cancelling the dividend just weeks after suggesting that it was safe is absolutely inexcusable.

Plus I suspect that averaging out the period of nil dividend with the period when it was paid, reduces the average yield received over the entire period, quite markedly?

Bring on another bidder to make the situation exciting, but anything near to 280-300p and I’m off too.

[nellynell] 10/3/2024 14:01

Only taxed if not in a tax free isa.As someone who over time has collected almost 20k just in Dividends From Direct line before it was ended I'm more than happy to continue to receive them for many more years to come. A trader may prefer 280 and run a long term investor won't

[liam1om] 10/3/2024 13:51

Out of interest why are you keen on a dividend? Taxed at 37% on the higher rate, share price roughly drops by the dividend amount anyway. Offer at 280 and I'm out and onto the next.

[nellynell] 10/3/2024 12:26

Direct line was a cashcow before the dividend was slashed I would rather prefer regular dividends than Being sold off.

[con90210] 10/3/2024 12:02

Can't see this personally as the business has been poorly run for years. 280p a share should seal a deal. I would accept that.

[nellynell] 10/3/2024 11:25

A.I will be playing a big part in insurance in the future and Direct line will hopefully be involved.

[con90210] 10/3/2024 09:19

His defense is getting an app?! Jeez!! No more British business being left behind!!

[city1911] 10/3/2024 08:02

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13176877/amp/Direct-Line-boss-Adam-Winslow-bets-tech-repel-predators.html

[pete160] 09/3/2024 13:55

Without the bid hopes previously and the bid interest now, the dlg share price would be nearer 125p and the prospects of any firm of divi being reinstated still 12 months away whilst the new boy kitchen sinks everything related to the previous, completely inept, management team.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/3/2024 08:28

A long way back indeed, but that said, results time on 21st this month, and that could set the cat amongst the pigeons with a reinstated dividend and a bid in the making that would need to be uplifted by some margin to get it approved.. :o)

[jrphoenixw2] 08/3/2024 22:18

High for the week today 227.00p, on lower volume than recent days.

Striking how 225.00p was the high on Thursday. I thought odd-lot retail investors were more likely for simplicity to use round-pence prices/limits. But these seem to be insti/algorithmic levels, hanging around a while while being challenged. Usually Insti/algo is moving/discreet so as not to 'create obvious targets'.

+6.8%/week. Long way back to go for those who've held a while, but that's a nice week. Certainly after +25.1% last week too.

[vikingwarrier] 08/3/2024 09:33

and still we rise. At this rate the bid will have to e 300p

[jrphoenixw2] 07/3/2024 21:44

@Viking/1167^ re: 'High demand here'

.... and rising; LSE volume/million:
Mon 4.4
Tue 5.7
Wed 7.3
Thu 11.7