Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[nellynell] 15/3/2024 17:13

I feel the same. I'm hoping by next week after the results two fingers will be stuck up to Ageas in the friendliest of ways and told to take a hike with their offer and the rebuild can commence(it already has behind the scenes).Obviously Mr Winslow will have known what the task was at hand before he took on the job and I'm fairly confident he will do a much better job than the previous.

What im hoping/expecting in the results next week....
● a robust solvency ratio of 180% +
● a comprehensive response on why the offer from Ageas is way too low
● a time frame of when Dividends are likely to start
● cost cutting measures Mr Winslow will be undertaking and had already under taken to make the business more profitable.

[stevensupertrader] 15/3/2024 16:07

I don’t think any white knight coming out .
Just only Ageas and the result next week .

[elbrus55] 15/3/2024 04:43

Ageas shares are on Euronext and can be traded by major UK brokers like HL and iii so that's not a barrier for most. But some shareholders may prefer not to hold such shares for a variety of reasons.https://www.ii.co.uk/shares/ageas-sa-nv/EURONEXT:AGS

[tuftymatt] 14/3/2024 21:06

If there is someone else interested they won't break cover yet in my opinion.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[carpingtris] 14/3/2024 20:32

Thinking they might be trying to test if anyone else is waiting in the wings? No counter offers yet either... that we know about.

[carpingtris] 14/3/2024 20:30

Ageas have till the 27th to make there minds up and haven't yet pulled out? We've seen nothing official as of yet.

They recently appointed some more advisors so I'm leaning towards there being a third final offer... what that is and whether acceptable? Jury is out..

IMO DYOR etc.

[pete160] 14/3/2024 20:17

Exactly, it's not rocket science is it!
If you don't want to accept shares in a bidder, then sell in the market just beforehand

[stevensupertrader] 14/3/2024 17:48

If the deal is done - then my advice to small shareholders to sell their DLG shares in LSE before the conversion date to get yourself into all kinds of foreseen hassle .

[jrphoenixw2] 14/3/2024 17:42

Snuddz/#1268: I've an account that can trade across international exchanges. For me if I were to receive Ageus shares they'd go straight into that account. I'd then be able to sell them via the Belgian exchange. But I could really do without that hassle, the FX on Euro funds. The potential for EU form-filling and witholding tax on divs and so on. That's why I want an all cash offer = all done and now time to move on. I've zero interest in holding shares of a random company I hadn't even heard of until a week or two back.

But your point. What if you offered BE listed shares without an account that can receive them? I suspect they'd perhaps offer a cash alt for such a situation... hmmm. It would be interetsing to know if they'd *require* that the share part of an offer be received in an account that can take them. That might really stuff a good proportion of small investors. I'll be interested to see if anyone else knows...

[wba1] 14/3/2024 16:58

As a PI I would not be put off by the share element of an offer as I would just trade my shares before completion, accepting paying a small fee in the form of a lower price than the offer.
I suspect that the future of this saga now depends on whether another bidder is flushed out. If not I suspect it will settle at or a little below 200p. I do not know if others are looking seriously. I am now looking across the insurance sector for opportunities with my DLG holding now back to normal levels after slicing and happy with my AV and LGEN holdings but not wanting more at current levels. I remain suspicious of Sabre (although I may be wrong) and am now looking at the rather odd insurer/broker/consultant/IT mix that is PGH. I cannot see much downside but anything on AIM is a gamble.

ps; I agree with Pete160 that not all the rot has been cut out. The underreserving at the heart of the profit warnings had to be actioned by the senior claims team, either on the instructions of PJ (in which case they should be sacked for not raising a red flag) or accidentally (in which case they should be sacked for incompetence). And the rest of the board have questions to answer for their oversight. I do find it odd that the failures in prior year reserving are now being quietly forgotten with a narrative about claims inflation, pricing and other factors relevant to accident year, but much less to prior years. It smells of a collective misdirection.

[snuddz] 14/3/2024 16:34

Ageas are not listed on U.K. index so how would PI's trade shares offered as part of the deal? Ageas are listed on the Belgium exchange!

[pete160] 14/3/2024 14:41

On the contrary nelly,
The poor performance of Aegas - showing that they are not committed to buying DLG, will hopefully bring forward more serious bidders (albeit I doubt until after the results now). DLG is after all still 'on sale' and any bidders now know that a price of 275-300p is likely to clinch it (particularly if after results and Aegas deadline of 27th sees the share price collapse below 190p)

I'm an investor here since before the dividend was cancelled, and as much as I want to see the dividends resumed, I think it will be a very very long time - if ever, that they will reach the level they once were and /or the market forgives their previous errors.
(PJ was not acting alone and I am not confident that all of the rot has been cut out).

As declared previously, I only remain holding here waiting for an exit point where I do not lose my original capital. I suspect that point will come quicker from a bidder than waiting for new management to rebuild.

As an aside, I think that whoever has been advising Aegas needs a kick up the behind. They've no doubt spent millions on bankers and the only result seems that Aegas are now a target themselves having highlighted their own weak /desperate strategy.

[nellynell] 14/3/2024 14:13

Excellent hopeful now this will flush out all the traders and predators and leave the company to rebuild and bring back the lovely dividends

[speedsgh] 14/3/2024 11:36

Mark Kleinman @MarkKleinmanSky

Revealed: One of the largest shareholders in Ageas, the Belgian insurer, believes its pursuit of London-listed Direct Line Group is “aggressive and opportunistic” and should be abandoned, in a fresh blow to the prospects for a deal.

------------------------

Direct Line suitor Ageas faces investor opposition to bid pursuit -

[huckers] 14/3/2024 10:46

For me personally the offer was simply not enough though I agree an all-cash offer is much preferred. Anything less than 270p is unappetising as I think within 18 months or so we will hit 250p (and start to pick up dividends along the way). My average is about 250p and I am prepared to be patient. Of course, my view is immaterial. It is the institutions that will ultimately decide what happens but I expect they were not impressed with the Ageas second offer!

[ashbox] 14/3/2024 10:38

I think the Ageas paper element of the offer must be a bit of a problem for PI's and a number of institutions and will probably act as a drag on the DLG share price versus the offer price. This is happening now with a price of circa 239p rejected versus the current 218p. What we need is someone to come in with an all cash offer!

[city1911] 14/3/2024 08:03

I think we will have a better idea how far off these offers are when the results come out

[pander45] 14/3/2024 08:01

I still think there's a deal in there at 250 with the right combo.

[tuftymatt] 14/3/2024 07:13

Ageas wont come back with north of 250 in my opinion as they need to borrow for it. Can that draw out someone else though with deeper pockets???

Good luck all 👍🏻

[jubberjim] 14/3/2024 06:47

A bid of 270 gets the job done and to hell with the results.

[pete160] 13/3/2024 22:33

'serious takeover threat looming' ?? Not yet there isn't :-)

[pander45] 13/3/2024 21:37

None of the board might survive the results with a serious takeover threat looming. Can they fend it off with a en even remotely poor trading statement? I doubt it.

[pete160] 13/3/2024 20:54

He'll survive the results. He'll blame the last lot before he arrived.
Perhaps he's put a call into his former chums at aviva to see if they have a spare 4bn? They've just gone back into Lloyd's, perhaps they'll want to get back to car insurance?

[pander45] 13/3/2024 18:38

Yep, otherwise it is going to be a very bad start for the CEO. One that he may well not survive.