Deltex Medical Share Discussion Threads

[schloo] 10/2/2022 12:54

Afraid not this time: bad timing with having to pay the 2020/21 income tax at end of Jan and the very small pot of the SIPP not already in DEMG is taking a punt on SENS. If that comes off, will buy some in the market

Did you subscribe?

[nobbygnome] 10/2/2022 11:40

Excellent post schloo! Have you taken part in the fund raising?

[janatha] 10/2/2022 11:29

Thanks for that, Schloo.

[doglover2003] 10/2/2022 11:25

DL > Schloo

Thank you very much for your very informative and interesting post.
I will try now to digest it.

Best

DL

[schloo] 10/2/2022 10:53

Hope I can clarify a little.

The new monitor will have multiple modalities. It will continue to have ODM and run ODM probes. This is invasive (albeit minimally so - "about as invasive as a chicken tikka masala"). It will continue to have PPWA. It is not clear if PPWA will be just off an invasive arterial line as now or also off non-invasive sources or if Deltex will be selling their own non-invasive blood pressure signal acquisition device: they will be missing an open goal if they do not sell their own as for many doctors/hospitals this is the now what they think comprises the advanced haemodynamic monitoring market, regardless of actual clinical capability.

The combination of ODM and PPWA is unique and extraordinarily powerful as it gives a complete picture of all the components of central blood flows. In early iterations, Deltex have made this far too fiddly to use (only works with two perfect signals but has to be continuous - the modality will be massively easier to use if based on a series of snapshots).

It will continue to have wholly non-invasive impedance cardiography. This should be fully integrated into the monitor, but is likely to be a separate module to start with, which is a shame but not that material.

The BIG change is that it will have wholly non-invasive suprasternal Doppler integrated into it. This is huge, potentially, as it allows doctors to get all the rich haemodynamic data from the ODM probes but much more quickly and anywhere in the health system and with far less skill or knack or fiddle.

Reading between the lines, the first iteration non-invasive device will be "good enough" but not that easy to use and allow quite a bit of intra-operator variability. However it ought to be plenty good enough to attract enthusiasts and make them want to buy the box or upgrade their current boxes. It ought to allow for flow pressure combination in snapshots to allow this part of the offer to take off properly.

The SMART award announced back end of last year is very important even if the market didn't react to it. This is to develop the second wave commercial suprasternal probe, probably using pulse wave rather than continuous wave Doppler which will allow users to find the optimal signal on an individual patient and then lock in on the focal depth to eliminate intra-operator variability as well as making a stronger clinical case for a single patient disposable device: disposability is less important in modern SaaS world though so will be interesting to see some creativity in the commercial models.

Taken together the new box should be a game changer. It will be the first iteration of a first advanced haemodynamic monitor which could meet all the needs throughout a whole hospital, meaning one supplier for the whole hospital. That is a wildly attractive proposition to the big medtech companies.

It is a shame that a number of major mistakes (no names!) mean this box will only get to the market several years late and without all the functionality that would maximise commercial demand. It is also a shame that this meant yet more dilutive capital was needed to give Andy a chance to launch it. It is a shame that, even with the extra capital, Deltex has never had the cash or culture (no names!) to properly market its technology. However, the new box is finally close to market and it is very hard indeed to see how Deltex won't be able to sell a good number of them in H2 this year and a lot more next year. In fact it is almost impossible to come up with a scenario where H2 revenue this year won't be up at least 100% up on H2 last year as a result. And there is huge upside long term from the non-invasive Doppler which ought to attract several of the big boys.

All in all, we really ought to be into a classic medtech endgame: launch new product, deliver very rapid sales growth, sharp increase in share price, exit at a substantial premium. Despite the recent further dilution, they really ought to be able to get a buyer at at least 6p, potentially a lot more with enough ambition and if the Board lets Andy get on with it.

[doglover2003] 10/2/2022 10:38

DL > gbenson

I have now noticed in the share subscription document the following:


"Reasons for the Subscription and use of proceeds

The proceeds from the Subscription will be used: (i) to launch, market and commercialise the next generation TrueVue monitor as well as a new non-invasive Doppler probe"

This indeed clarifies that a non-invasive probe is to be introduced and I therefore regard this as a game-changer for Deltex if it proves successful.
The introduction of a non-invasive probe will sidestep the major objection to use of ODM by clinicians.

The only question I have remaining is whether or not clinical trials will be required to determine the suitability and effectiveness of the new probes.

After so many years the most significant hurdle to the adoption of ODM will have been overcome.

DL

[gbenson1] 10/2/2022 10:10

I'm not sufficiently qualified to differentiate its operation, however I can read, and it states in the article on their website it is truly non invasive. I'm only a retired bridge building old soldier. My interpretation is that the probe can be administered outside of the operating theatre ie A&E or on the ward, therefore making it easier and cheaper to administer, I take from that it is perhaps and external type of monitor/probe? still we should find out soon enough as it's to be launched early 2022! I'm an ethical investor here from the offset many years ago..

[doglover2003] 10/2/2022 09:34

If you read my post carefully it is clear that the company do NOT say that the ODM aspect is non-invasive.

The statement only seems to refer to the monitoring:

"Deltex is working to deliver the monitoring power of ODM+, but from a simpler-to-use and completely non-invasive system."

This is circumlocution. It does not specifically say that ODM+ will be used only "the monitoring power of ODM+"

Anyway, how can you avoid the use of probes irrespective of the monitor device?

[gbenson1] 10/2/2022 09:22

Reading the articles from the companies website, leads me to believe it is truly non invasive, and can be administered on the hospital ward, which should mean less cost to the NHS and hopefully more sales!! imho.

[doglover2003] 10/2/2022 09:03

Can anyone explain what the company means when they state that the new Truvue monitor to be released mid 2022 will be totally non-invasive.

Does this relate to ODM function which currently requires insertion of a probe or does it refer only to the other monitoring regimes such as PPWA etc?

The answer to this question will determine whether or not this is just a marketing exercise or a genuinely novel development which will encourage adoption and uptake of ODM.

DL

[gbenson1] 09/2/2022 16:01

Yeh, but difficult to separate the buys from any sells, still volume is volume so not complaining..

[chrisdgb] 09/2/2022 15:26

bIG VOLUME TODAY....???

[nobbygnome] 08/2/2022 13:07

I see it as a big positive. Ultimately it's all about selling the company and this money should get them to a point where that is possible....

[chrisdgb] 08/2/2022 12:53

Gives a real platform to build from......

[mrc2u] 08/2/2022 09:16

Is it enough? It should be, as they don't have to do very much to get stellar looking growth and that long awaited exitGood news I suppose. This dilution is not as horrible as the Board awarding themselves shares a year or two back as it may actually make us richer. Or less poor anywayMrC

[nobbygnome] 08/2/2022 07:17

Well a better price than I expected....

[mrc2u] 02/2/2022 13:21

All very quiet here after the flurry of news. The 'Americas' news was good, the trading update pretty limp.Seems to be all about the next generation monitor now. Get it to market mid year, sell enough to get a good growth curve, then flog the company. Hope they/the chairman have the cash to do that?Any thoughts?MrC

[gnnmartin] 26/1/2022 14:57

I assume that is somebody moving shares into a SIPP, or some such. No change of beneficial party.

[gbenson1] 26/1/2022 14:15

2 very interesting real-time trades just gone through, large trades like these are normally delayed by an hour or so!!

[doglover2003] 26/1/2022 11:57

What else is in the pipeline that we don't know of?

We need patience as we already have Patients.

[the count] 26/1/2022 09:50

--->SIDAM

Yes, how I read it too.

Most likely South America, but maybe not Peru as sure they would have mentioned that otherwise.

They do seperately refer to the USA in the RNS, so it doesn't look as if it is the US. And in any case, I didn't think we were using distributors in the USA.

TC!

[sidam] 26/1/2022 08:02

It reads to me as Americas not the US. Distributor not direct, but still a good start.

[babysitter] 26/1/2022 07:52

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[janatha] 26/1/2022 07:38

Great news. Well done DM.

[ramnik007] 26/1/2022 07:33

This is a surprise bonus RNS. Will this be the start of turnaround narrative of Deltex; having waited and waited for over 12 years ?