Debenhams Share Discussion Threads

[niggle] 16/4/2018 09:13

Say they revise predicted profit to £44m as speculated in the Retail Gazette then on a PE of 7 then ~ 25p, on a PE of 5, 18p.

Say £30m on a PE of 7 (same as M&S) then the price should be around 17p. With a PE of 5 - declining profits, no assets, then 12p.

Just speculating here - any other views based on what we know?

[niggle] 16/4/2018 08:42

Q - see Debs’ post - I think you do; and I’ve already told you I’m not short - keep up old boy.

[debsdowner] 16/4/2018 08:36

BBC business

8:25

Household spending falls to lowest level since 2012

"Household spending has fallen to its weakest level in more than five years during the first three months of 2018, hit by weather and waning consumer confidence.
Visa's UK Consumer Spending Index published today found that pending fell by 1.4% year-on-year across the first quarter of the year - marking the worst quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2012,.
Overall consumer spending fell by 2.1% annually in March, with face-to-face spending on the high street down by 3% year-on-year.
Online spending decreased by 1.2% annually - the first time in 10 months there has been a decline and the fastest rate since 2012."

[qantas] 15/4/2018 23:16

Man on a mission

Two lawyers one degree

Niggle you still need to do more research.

Please do your own research..

[niggle] 15/4/2018 23:08

Anything forecast in Jan will be in the bin. Jan-March has been an unmitigated disaster for retail.

It isn’t getting any better in April.

They could be looking at a loss. The only thing that could help would be revamped store performance but it won’t be enough. Too little too late. dyor etc

[diku] 15/4/2018 21:56

Computer automated poster is back...

[qantas] 15/4/2018 21:11

Barvin in your dreams perhaps you have hadt to much vino?

Shorts doomed to failure..

Major buy backs this week.

Results may be better than expected.

What happens if a hedge fund goes bust before buying back the shares they sold..

Please do your own research.

[debsdowner] 15/4/2018 20:15

They shouldn't have paid final dividend imo and I think they may pass next dividend.

If they pass the dividend no yield share price may well fall to 15 pence level.

[barvin] 15/4/2018 20:05

That'll come when its on its knees and Mike Ashley swoops along to buy it off the administrators.

[diku] 15/4/2018 19:47

Re negotiate rents with landlords...

[barvin] 15/4/2018 19:28

They have £30m or so tied up in dividends that could be released. But no doubt about it, this is going down. Will be bust before 2020 imo.But even so, if it gets down to 15p levels it's worth a punt over next 6 months or so still. That dividend pot will be released over time and give them a bit of breathing space. But the size and handcuff deals on those stores is what will sink it.

[debsdowner] 15/4/2018 19:17

Footfall decline worst in west midlands say Springboard.

[diku] 15/4/2018 18:10

Give me my bonus now!...

[debsdowner] 15/4/2018 18:07

Barvin,

Have you a link to your post 4801? Thanks.

[hvs] 15/4/2018 17:34

Looks interesting from a fart perspective.

[barvin] 15/4/2018 17:32

and all the Debenhams credit card signup bonuses they just didn't pay Https://www.quidco.com/debenhams-credit-card/reviews/

[barvin] 15/4/2018 16:23

Quidco withdrawal cashback now 20% added on top of withdrawals from today (up from 15%). Way above any other.Just these little signs - canary in the coal mine stuff, showing things are getting a bit desperate at Debenhams. A brave souls who holds going into results. Expect lower forecasts, dividend cut and possible shop closures.

[debsdowner] 15/4/2018 12:49

There hasn't been 1 year in last 7 years where Debs has made 50% of first half profits in second half. The analysts estimates seem to be way out for second half projections on historic data.

[debsdowner] 15/4/2018 12:37

Here are the figures for interim and final pre tax for 7 years:

Interim pre tax: (million)
11. 125.3
12. 127.1
13. 120.3
14. 85.2
15. 89.9
16. 93.8
17. 87.8
Final pre tax (millions)
11. 160
12. 158
13. 154
14. 105
15. 113
16. 105
17. 59

If you compare the 7 years figures first half and second half, there have been times when second half has been worse than first half. I appreciate there could have been exceptional amounts which have distorted figures but historically second half is the much weaker half.

edit: Last year second half went into loss (inc exceptional items)

edit. In fact second half makes on average much less than half first half profits,

[debsdowner] 15/4/2018 12:18

libertime,

They may have said that but I'm sceptical because second half is normally the weaker half and could actually go into loss.

According to the T one or two of their stores are seeing better trading under the new format however one or two stores isn't good enough with the large bricks and mortar they have.

With consumers tightening up things can only get worse imo.

The city will make its own mind up on day of results.

Its an extremely big gamble at the moment.

[libertine] 15/4/2018 11:39

debsdowner

There was more to the Telegraph article that you conveniently forgot to include.

`` City analysts have pencilled in profits of around £44m, putting it on course to hit the £55m to £65m range Debenhams had anticipated for the full year in January. Like-for-like sales for the three months dropped 2.4pc.``

So they are saying Debenhams will hit the target announced to the market in January, and the figures analysts had anticipated.

No shocks there then!

[debsdowner] 15/4/2018 11:17

Grim news on profit margins for Debenhams outlined by the FT. Seems online sales do not make up for in store sales as profit margins lower.



"The point here is that the damage to margins could be permanent, even for retailers which do not fall off the bridge. On the UBS projections, Next’s experience translates into 12 per cent off M&S’s pre-tax profit and a gruesome 78 per cent off Debenhams’. There are going to be many more drownings in this industry."

[debsdowner] 15/4/2018 10:42

robot

Posters on here don't want you to lose any more money, we are trying to help you from yourself. Its very easy to get carried away and in love with a stock you will not be the only investor who has made that mistake.

I would be most pleased if Debenhams came out with a positive statement and surprised the market but I don't think that will happen.