Dart Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 19/11/2018 12:25

IQ IQ IQ ... Happy seeing our dear accountant (aka buffett's soul brother on this side of the pond) finally ses the difference between a trading PL and opportunity cost (which technically is relevant to him but not to a short termer who plays a completely diff game). As for our propaganda in chief - he must be confused by his hasty conclusions earlier on...

[wagnerlove] 19/11/2018 12:12

I am saying price is up from when you were short to price now, bingo boy. Might need to work on your reading skills as well as your maths. Plus, being the spread betting punter you are, you were presumably levered on your short so that 6.8% loss is more like 30 per cent. Anyway, keep up the good work. Watch out all. George "Tongo" Soros will be sat in his bedroom reading Wikipedia, plotting his next big trade to punt his giro on.

[tongosti] 19/11/2018 12:07

AND HOW IS THAT RELEVANT TO MY TRADING P&L?Please explain Einstein no 2 ...

[castleford tiger] 19/11/2018 11:50

550/590-1= -6.8%

Where did you get your 50% from?

PLEASE enlighten me Einstein??

And remember that you’re entitled to own opinions (useless as they may be) but not your own facts.

I THINK HE IS SAYING FROM THEN TO NOW IF YOU READ IT.

tiger

[castleford tiger] 19/11/2018 11:48

After latest results were announced propaganda in chief labelled them “smashing̶1; while his shoe shining boy immediately rushed to oblige.

That was before the dodgy MMs maliciously brought price down by 20% (how dare they)

In light of recent price action - I have to rest my case...

Ok tong you have hindsight on your side.

Taking my comment that results were Smashing......Well they were above expectations ,showed a huge increase in margin and huge pre bookings.

MM brought price down from 980 to 940 so close to the 4/5% mark.

That was based on forecasts showing a slow down 18 months away ( Dart have no realised their program for this period yet) so its hard to argue against it at this stage.
I think then momentum took over on a bad Brexit day and a few short term traders panicked.
Remember I see it the opposite way as a cheap entry point.

Which ever metric or valuation you look at DTG are trading well below fair value.

I note the posters concern re EZY but the model is completely different.

From booking in the uk ,to check in , to loading your bags, the flight, the transfer , the contact in resort ,the resort check in and all things back DART control the whole holiday.

That's the only way to stop errors and upsetting people.

Tiger

[tongosti] 19/11/2018 11:41

550/590-1= -6.8%Where did you get your 50% from? PLEASE enlighten me Einstein??And remember that you're entitled to own opinions (useless as they may be) but not your own facts.

[wagnerlove] 19/11/2018 11:27

Numbers don't lie bingo boy. Facts hurt. Stock is up 50% from when you were short. Feel free to keep degen-ing off your giro after a wikipedia session about beta and explain it away later with some crisp packet Soros quotes. Take your own advice mate.

[tongosti] 19/11/2018 11:12

Thank you for making my point - shorting at 550 and covering at 590 is indeed a blowup. Go figure who's clueless and who's not in this game. I wonder what your highness would make of the David Einhorns of this world going shortTesla and Amazon when the rest of the "accounting" community were creaming over them. Ps. You should write less genius and think more. Much more. Do yourself a favour.

[wagnerlove] 19/11/2018 11:05

Tong, you are clueless. Tragic case really, as many on here are sitting on multiples of their original investment. You got blown up shorting at 550p. The only person lacking self-awareness here is you. End of story.

[tongosti] 19/11/2018 10:29

Impressive copy and paste of a very old broken record. Markets - better listen up and come to your sensesPS. Being bearish at £10 prior to results were announced proved indeed BS - funny world one lives in.

[wagnerlove] 19/11/2018 10:10

What is the market telling us? A simple DCF calculation shows that at £8 the market is implying/belives that Dart has just 10 years of life left as a trading company, and it will grow at 2 per cent a year over that period. That is based on discounting the present value of 94p of earnings for this year, growing at around inflation (2%), at a disount rate of 5% over the 10 years (10 year Gilt is at 1.41% today). That 820p value takes no account of net cash or assets(£1.2bn of brand new planes etc) ater cash flows finish in year 10. That seems quite pessimistic to me. So current price implies either no growth over a decade, and then winding up, or sharply lower profits going forward. On same calculation, if you believe company grows 10% a year for next three years, then at inflation for 15 more years then shares are worth £16, or double. All these cacluations involve making some broad assumptions, but help frame current expectations far more than Tongo's hand-waivy, big book of trading cliche BS.

[hatfullofsky] 19/11/2018 09:39

A little calmer today (bit hairy at the open) happy for a slow and steady recovery.

[tongosti] 19/11/2018 09:02

As the old saying goes - the market is designed to fool most people most of the time and teach us all humility. Extreme reactions should always beg the question - what is the message the market is trying to convey? To some the market conveys FA message if goes against them (the ultimate in human hubris under the guise of investing "conviction") whereas to a few others it gives a fresh reason to rethink their original thesis.

[tsmith2] 19/11/2018 08:53

Still trying to get my head round the near 25% last week!

[woozle1] 18/11/2018 21:07

wagnerlove,
Jet2 are fully integrated and EZJ is not, which means that the minute you check in you are in Jet2's hands. With EasyJet you pay for your own transfer and there's no in-resort assistance. The resort transfer is £22.5 per person (nearly £100 for a famliy of 4), Moreover, EZJ's the hotel back end is provided by booking.com, whereas Jet2 have either paid deposits or bought outright the accommodation. Also it's very limited. At the moment, no EZJ holidays to Spain, for example. Jet2 is a very different business.
w1

[wagnerlove] 18/11/2018 17:03

I am not particularly concerned with Thomas Cook, as it is stuck with a dying model (UK arm) and a terrible balance sheet. I am more concerned with EasyJet’s holiday business expansion, which is a well-funded and serious competitor entering the market using Jet2 model. EasyJet has registered 700k passengers for its ATOL this year in first year of licence. It could double that next year and become top 4 in UK package holiday market. Thomas Cook may be pushed over the edge if EasyJet is aggressive on price, but this will be felt across the sector. I think Jet2 should have the flexibility to fight it out toe to toe and prosper, but will be watching closely. Interested to hear thoughts on this if anyone has any good info/insight.

[snorkelparker] 18/11/2018 16:34

Yep, English was not a strong point..:)..Just to add there is a reason TCG with 9 bil of rev has a market cap of 750mil and DTG at 1,227mil on around 3 bil.Unfortunately I dont think the lows are in place yet. After brexit vote and small profit warning it hit 6 times earnings ..thats a fair bit down from where we are now ..hope a bit of sanity returns this coming week

[tresham] 18/11/2018 16:24

Snorkelparker, Your English is crip. But you are rite. I agree
Those numbers on Thursday were excellent. Still trying to take in the market reaction.
Tresham

[tsmith2] 18/11/2018 16:16

Appreciated

[snorkelparker] 18/11/2018 15:45

Thought I would review a few things in light of the weeks price decline and found a few notes on TCG numbers earlier in the year, with respect to balance sheet.
So thought it gave a nice compassion between TCG and DTG, i think in a few metrics it shows the very stark differences between the health of the two companies and follows on from both mine and Tigers thoughts that TCG could get into a lot of trouble.
Figures are taken from TCG at their H1 31st March and DTG H1 30th Sept so may paint the numbers excluding the summer contribution from TCG but not expecting much change to their B/S. They also use basic crude metrics that are to only reflect a flavour than be 100% accurate.

Share holders equity as a staring point
First set of numbers represent the share holders equity including intangibles
DTG 862 Mil
TCG 35 Mil
Second with the subtraction of intangibles.
DTG 855 Mil
TCG (3028) Mil

Conclusion. Intangibles Minimal for DTG, but rest assured TCG owners 3 billion of assets are goodwill and brand value, cant see that going far in an asset sale or cashing in at the bank.

Second set of numbers reflect current cash and current liability associated with advance bookings. For these numbers took cash and cash equivalents plus trade receivables on the asset side. Then subtract advance booking / deferred revenue plus Trade Payables on the liability side

DTG Cash 1397 Mil plus TR 266 Mil giving a total 1663 Mill subtract advance booking rev 529 M and Trade Payable 435 M which equals 964 Mil ..This leaves a balance of +699Mil in free cash on the balance sheet.

TCG Cash 624 Mil plus TR 932 Mil giving a total 1,556 Mil subtract funds received for advance bookings 2,075 mil plus Trade Payable 1,419 which equals 3,494.. this leaves a negative short fall in free cash flow of 1,938 Mil

Conclusion DTG maintains a positive cash account however TCG running a nearly (2 billion GDP) shortfall they have been utilizing advance cash for funding of other areas of the business, divs, salaries ect, they are reliant on further advance payments to pay the cost associated with holidays already paid for by customers a precarious position if margins and rev comes under further pressure.

Finally though it was worth visiting the property, equipment and planes ect coupled with provisions required to support plane leases.

DTG property, planes equipment 1,176 Mil subtract borrowings 937.4 Mil Balance +238.6 Mil
TCG Property, planes equipment 733 Mil subtract borrowings 1,303 Mil Balance -570 Mil

Lease Obligations / liabilities
DTG provisions 55.7Mil
TCG provisions 429 Mil and lease liabilities 199 Mil

Conclusions

These numbers provide the value of investing in the long term future through both new and well placed 2nd hand plane purchases and having the expertise that DTG has in Philip Meason rather than loosing margin to leasing companies. DTG will end up owning their fleet a much more advantageous position to a competitor leasing their planes on a long term basis.

Final Conclusion
I think the numbers speak for themselves, comments if I have missed any big assumptions creating a bias approach in my conclusions
SNK

[s34icknote] 18/11/2018 13:25

What is going on with Advfn and the prices !!!Sicknote

[snorkelparker] 18/11/2018 08:25

Tsmith, i wish too:) how do you make the deduction of the share opening 20% up Monday? Have to wait for pre opening auction for that price or it's just a mistake..

[woozle1] 17/11/2018 22:57

Has someone given Tongo his bottle?
Nanny w1

[tsmith2] 17/11/2018 22:07

I've got the price showing up 19.7% at 983. I'll take that for Monday ;)

[tongosti] 17/11/2018 20:10

After latest results were announced propaganda in chief labelled them "smashing" while his shoe shining boy immediately rushed to oblige. That was before the dodgy MMs maliciously brought price down by 20% (how dare they)In light of recent price action - I have to rest my case...Borrowing from Goodfellas' Billy Bats character: you'd better go home and get your shine box!