Dart Share Discussion Threads

[hatfullofsky] 16/11/2018 15:50

As I feared .... we could retest 800

[hatfullofsky] 16/11/2018 15:47

Scaling in

[tongosti] 16/11/2018 15:21

Could have waited a bit for cheaper prices. An object in motion tends to stay in motion. Newton's first law

[bwm2] 16/11/2018 12:46

Having sold all on the July results, I have bought back in today. Dart has been a long term successful investment.

[tsmith2] 16/11/2018 11:13

Excellent buy at this level

[hatfullofsky] 16/11/2018 10:52

Agreed Woozle, just moved things around and increased holding by 50%

[woozle1] 16/11/2018 10:45

Patience is the key here (an attribute not familiar to the idiot trio). Of course, they are going to beat the numbers and TCG's could be more upside. Meeson is not building a business for the share price but for the long term. He knows that by keeping his customers and staff happy, the share price takes care of itself. When all the political turbulence finally clears, investors who bought at these prices are going to be very happy.
w1

[hatfullofsky] 16/11/2018 09:06

So with increased H2 losses

eH2 losses £100M = FY PBT £237M x 5.14 (MCAP / PBT)
eH2 losses £125M = FY PBT £212M x 5.75

Still totally under valued

[castleford tiger] 16/11/2018 09:05

Brokers cut a target on tcg yesterday to about 106p.
Thats a p/e of over 100,

Tiger

[meijiman] 16/11/2018 08:48

Bit odd if Gary B is steering you one way and steering Arden another! Still I can see how it can happen and no doubt the lower numbers are a worse case scenario which PM likes to have onboard early doors.
For better or worse DTG is seen as a big Brexit play..so can't be helping.

[hatfullofsky] 16/11/2018 08:47

snorkelparker16 Nov '18 - 08:03 - 4536 of 4539

Loss in h2 last financial was a lot more than 30 mill if I remember.

Snorkel - Thank you for the challenge, you are correct.

2018H2 LBT £78M uLBT £84M

[tsmith2] 16/11/2018 08:45

I think 1100 is fair value here

[snorkelparker] 16/11/2018 08:44

Something sure doesn't stack up.. but it is what it is...broker vs company guidance time will tell

[tsmith2] 16/11/2018 08:43

You would think house broker would use these too then?

[castleford tiger] 16/11/2018 08:37

Thanks for that.Clearly explains the early mark down. The Mm had the new forecasts.
2020 is not on sale yet and as ............
fuel and hotel costs are fixed before they decide the price they sell their holidays for.
51% of all seats are people going on holiday.

So forecasts are finger in the air.
Dart are masters at hedging and then selling at a profit.

I think these figures are conservative to say the least.
Margin to fall from 13 to 5.3 is extremely unlikely.

However FLYBE and TCG are both going to fail if they get hit by a reduction in margin like the above.
TCG simply has too much debt to survive on those margins ( and dart is far more cost effective)

There is huge upside in my opinion.

Tiger

[wagnerlove] 16/11/2018 08:18

Tiger, yesterday both the analysts at the house brokers, Arden and Canaccord, downgraded 2020 EPS numbers based on rising costs, but kept 2019 numbers the same. They are main MMs in stock, and that is why price moved down in the morning. As previous poster said, Arden have EPS of 81.7p in 2020, but has revenues at 3.4bn, so they are being very conservative on cost impact for 2020 as implies op margin of 5.3%, lower than all recent years.

[castleford tiger] 16/11/2018 08:04

That s a crazy set of numbers.

I have eps 110p and 130p following year.

Guidance is from Gary Brown and the bod.

Tige

[snorkelparker] 16/11/2018 08:03

Loss in h2 last financial was a lot more than 30 mill if I remember.

[hatfullofsky] 16/11/2018 07:47

Arden published a Buy recommendation but their numbers are very strange :

FY2019E PBT £173M / EPS 94P
FY2020E PBT £151M / EPS 82P

Which means they are expecting a loss in H2 of £164M v £30M in 2018.

This just does not make sense.

[castleford tiger] 16/11/2018 07:24

Come on we all know what sells periodicals and its not a good news story.

I question the reply to my comment MM opened this 40p lower.

Someone has to make that call as no trades are yet reported. I tried to get a price pre 8 am via my broker who was on the phone to MM and there was no price.

The focus has clearly been on HEADWINDS.
Well oil was hedged, sales are up 38% on the same time last year and margin has recovered 3 points.

I question the term winter losses and a fair percentage of it could be Phrased investment for the future. We have seen this time and time again.
I also think the 95p eps will be well beaten and at some point we will get
" dart expects to exceed current market expectations due to reduced winter losses"

The bit that many fail to see about DART is that the Slack they have by Wet leasing
aircraft at the busy times means they get shut of them in the quieter months.

I think 110p is my new target which is close to double what the market +65p was expecting a year ago.
I expect a price close to £15.00 a share by NYE 2019.

Finally TCG have a load of debt and trade on a p/e of 60 what will happen there with their results?
Remember they blamed world cup and the hot summer for slowing down. Clearly it didn't affect dart.

Tiger

[snorkelparker] 16/11/2018 02:49

Yep Shanker ..not particularly balanced to say the least..anyway that's the way these days, bad news maybe gets more attention. At least Morningstar covered all the points

[shaker44] 16/11/2018 02:35

Investors chronicle did brief write up with absolutely no mention of results!! Sole focus was clouds on the horizon, and investment costs ahead.daft.

[snorkelparker] 16/11/2018 01:52

For some reason for the market to push this higher was just not there. I cant explain why you get a steady buy up over 2 weeks, then no follow through on decent numbers.. not a great day with all the pending brexit news which would have taken the wind out of any interest as the day unfolded ... so all in all a bit of a surprise. Would it have changed things if profits had been 50 mil more probably not..So today is taking stock of the situation, marshall wace covered a tiny tiny bit on the 13th nov moving from 0.6 to 0.59. Like to see if the volume at the 8.20-8.3 mark was covering, would be positive if it is. Over the next day or so this will become apparent. Thought the coverage from morningstar ect went straight for the negatives , seemed like the profit and rev increase was an afterthought, other times its been reported the other way round. Anyway time to take stock dont do anything rash and see how the next week or so pans out..But the big question now is, what is it going to take to go higher again ,we all know the numbers we know the current growth path and we have to be mindful that things at some point will get more difficult to grow, Ryan will come after Jet2, the staff cost headwinds are part due to Jet2 bidding up salaries to poach staff. Now the extent of the damge Ryan can do remains to be seen. Will Flybe /TCG just go out of business or continue to muddle along. Add all the other uncertainties oil, gbp etcThe stakes are getting higher if a serious downturn bites, only positive is dtg is in a stronger position than most, but that isnt going help the share price I think valuations of 12 times plus are a bit ambitious for a while. If 10 times "and I hate to use this metric as a valuation method in isolation" then its a ten quid stock ..My thoughts for what they are worth..

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 21:12

"MM clearly don't like the figures as they moved the price down 40p at the start". Ultimate in idiocy. Anyone in the business knows that market makers are not directional traders (and lord knows how extra careful they are especially with fairly illiquid smaller stocks) but simply are there to scalp the spread and facilitate the market. If one were to make this statement in a job interview they will never ever manage to get anywhere near a Wall Street toilet let alone something fancier. The underlying message of a typical die hard loyalist like our propaganda in chief here is that when the price goes against him there is either a conspiracy (dodgy mms) or markets are stupid. On the other hand, if it goes in his favour, hes vindicated as a genius. Quite smth to see some knowledgeable posters on here letting some off the hook spouting such out and out rubbish.