Dart Share Discussion Threads

[wagnerlove] 15/11/2018 12:59

Tongo, basic finance class mate. FCF = operating cash flow minus Capex. Don’t know where you “worked out” your numbers lol. Dart expected to spend £200m on Capex this year finishing plane purchase. Depreciation last year was £111m, next year will be about £130m. Operating cash flow last year was £427m. This year higher, as we have seen c.70% increase in CFFO today compared to same period last year. So, say we have conservatively £400m in operating cash flow, minus £200m Capex that puts DTG on a FCF yield today of 16%. If we take depreciation as maintenance Capex, and assume 25% growth in CFFO based on revenue growth we have already seen you get FCF of £407m, or a FCF yield on todays price of over 30%. Is that low?

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 12:40

what a muppet. if you bothered to read that earlier post those were the FCF numbers i had myself worked out but again genius enjoy yourself. literally...or not!

another loser filtered.

[wagnerlove] 15/11/2018 12:30

Tongo mate, you are a funny guy. Your comments further reveal your complete ignorance. “FCF yield” is not a trailing number you find on Yahoo finance. I cant be bothered to waste my time explaining why you are confused, you wouldn’t listen anyway. Good luck.

[castleford tiger] 15/11/2018 12:29

Net cash generated from operating
activities 423.8 257.2 414.9
------------------------------------------- -------------- ---------------- ----------

Cash flows used in investing activities
Purchase of property, plant and
equipment (132.1) (90.4) (411.1)
Proceeds from sale of property,
plant and equipment 1.6 - 0.3
Net increase in money market deposits (265.0) (244.9) (19.9)

Net cash used in investing activities (395.5) (335.3) (430.7)

[castleford tiger] 15/11/2018 12:23

Yes i bought right at the start at 940 for all i could get 750 shares.

Since then i have bought from 820/849.

My view this morning was that the market would mark these up.
Why ? Because the results are outstanding.

TCG that is saddled with 1.5b of debt makes less than 1p net EPS and so is valued at 50x earnings.

Dart and i agree with an earlier poster will make circa 120p well above the 95p forecast ( which in turn was raised from 65p ) so how can it only be worth 8x earnings.

Its given me another great chance to buy stock cheaply.

Lets talk about this in a few weeks when everything settles down.
Of course the market never lies but it does get things wrong

Tiger

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 12:21

thought a few days ago i wrote re FCF yield selling at very unattractive levels and the market vindicated me big time but now another genius has yet to be convinced re my "grasp" of free cash flow. go figure.

most cannot be convinced against own convictions - does not matter what one says.

p.s. shoe shiner has bought on the cheap. inspires confidence.

[woozle1] 15/11/2018 12:11

My advice to anyone attempting to enter into rational debate is not to bother and just filter him.
w1

[woozle1] 15/11/2018 12:08

Just bought more!

[wagnerlove] 15/11/2018 12:08

Instead of his hand-wavy macro platitudes, I would be interested to hear if Tongo is capable of outlining a sensible view are on what the fair value of this company is? Are the odds the market is offering way above or below this? If so, why? If macro factors are more important, to what extent is Brexit/higher oil/toppy markets already in the price or not, based on current valuation? He talks about high market expectations but doesn’t know what they are. His last attempt at fundamental analysis on here showed he doesn’t have a basic grasp of accounting or corporate valuation, doesn’t even know what free cash flow is, and doesn’t understand the business. If he came up with a reasonable argument I would be very keen to listen. I want to hear a well articulated bear case. Very easy to sit on the sidelines and macro bullshXXit all day.

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 11:59

one wonders where's the shoe shiner disappeared today???

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 11:58

master of universe himself in action:


Castleford Tiger15 Nov '18 - 08:04 - 4439 of 4491
0 0 0
940 !!!!!! To buy


BOOM!

[getscenic] 15/11/2018 11:49

Flybe effect is working in MM's favour. A lot of chat about Jet2 but what about the brexit effect on FW?

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 11:48

Tresham -do you want to expand a bit on your markets are driven by options statement? thanks.

[hatfullofsky] 15/11/2018 11:46

Tip for the group

Not sure if anybody is interested in Large Cap's but AHT is forming something a nice base after a correction. HY update due on 11/12

11 September 2018 - Current trading and outlook

Our business is performing well in supportive end markets. With the benefit of weaker sterling, we expect full year results to be ahead of our expectations and the Board continues to look to the medium term with confidence.

Statutory results Q1

Revenue 1,047.4 880.1 22%
Profit before taxation 274.4 228.9 23%
Profit after taxation 209.9 150.0 44%
Earnings per share 43.0p 30.2p 47%

MCAP 9,000M

[hatfullofsky] 15/11/2018 11:38

Alchemy of finance - Will add to the list. Tnx

[tresham] 15/11/2018 11:35

Many Institutions can’t buy these shares because they are on the AIM. Large capital sells have no where to go.
Bankers and Institutions can be upset. I wonder if Jet2 was asked to buy up the TCG fleet or whether Institutions wanted Dart to buy Flybe?

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 11:34

re reflexivity - if i may suggest, best source is alchemy of finance not new market wizards.

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 11:32

Where are you on you positions tongosti ? Did you short down (as you should have done with reflexivity) or are you a fence sitter without position ?

- why do you think i am here? ....

[tresham] 15/11/2018 11:15

It seems futile to explain the merits of The Dart Group, they are plenty.

Reasons for Share price fall:
Business:
 Profits encourage competition.
 Airlines are cyclical
Market:
 Individuals sell as the share price rises. I admit to having sold 25% of my holding since buying in 2012. I did this to balance my portfolio. This explains why long term momentum is still worth buying.
 Holders may sell because they have a rule, No investment in companies with joint chairman and CEO. (Norwegian Sovereign fund?) Shroders has sold down from 20% to 5%. There are people in the know I expect.
 People read tea leaves. Logic goes increase dividend to pay for disappointment.
 Markets really are unpredictable. Buffett agrees with this.
 People borrow against the value of shares and have to sell to pay back borrowings.
 Markets are driven by options.
 Nervous market, (Brexit day) magnifies volatility

[hatfullofsky] 15/11/2018 11:11

I'm aware of Druckenmiller(his performance) and influence Soros had (yes I to have read New Market Wizards).

You mis-quote me (which I presume by your tone you do often to suit your arguments) I never said "reflexivity is all rubbish", please re-read my post (this time without blinkers on).

Where are you on you positions tongosti ? Did you short down (as you should have done with reflexivity) or are you a fence sitter without position ?

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 11:11

hatfull - forgive me for stating the obvious but i wasn't referring to you as a rookie.

re market timing - yes it's unbelievably difficult but not impossible. whether folks accepting it or not, we're all in the market timing business.

re reflexivity on being a herd mentality - strongly disagree. it's about taking advantage of such mentality instead. once you realise which side the boat is tipped (pretty much like DTG), you have a potentially skewed risk/reward situation in your hands.

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 11:00

Hatfull - compare the 30year tracking record of Stan Druckenmiller with Buffett or anyone one else you fancy. 30% per annum without a losing year ever (unheard of!). Dedicates it all to Soros's concept of reflexivity. And you (an anonymous poster) come telling me that reflexivity is all rubbish? Get sérios pal.

[tongosti] 15/11/2018 10:54

DTG plunging to fresh depths. Very close to wiping out both latest company announcement. I look forward to our resident propaganda fella on why the market gets it all wrong because it does not make sense to some (in their infinite wisdom?). Day in the sun shorts - downwards and southwards!!!

[hatfullofsky] 15/11/2018 10:53

tongosti

You could also use Buffett's comments "Be greedy while others are fearful" an over-reaction on the down side to great news in indeed a buying opportunity.

Reflexivity is simply herd mentality, a self fulfilling prophecy. Very very few can predict the Market. Reflexivity, may explain subsequent fall / rises but does not explain the initial movement.

No rookies here