Dart Share Discussion Threads

[shaker44] 01/8/2018 08:31

but tiger if mr tongo maestro chooses to go short let him put his money where his mouthbis- and burn,!

[castleford tiger] 01/8/2018 07:22

Mr Maestro

You sound like an old friend we had on here a while ago.
EPS in current year forecast to be 95p and you think 650p target is reasonable?
Growth may well slow next year to circa 15/20% but targets have not been raised yet.
The company is sitting on a huge cash pile ( most of it customers money) but this is financing rapid expansion.
The 2 new bases are now bedding in and I see new opportunities from summer 2020 especially the SW of the UK.
More overseas bases will allow for expansion at Airports like Leeds that are short of stand spaces by flying in reverse ( starting and finishing at an overseas summer base)
There is still much to play for in the UK especially short break and out of season 50+ age travellers.
Unless a short term issue develops ( like a volcano etc)I see this going much higher when compared to many other companies.

I would like to look at numbers now and those I forecast for current year.
Turnover I see increasing by 20% to 2.9b
Profit at 166 m and eps about 95p.
However last year prices per sector flight were down from 86£ to £73.65. The second half saw a big recovery after Monarch went bust.
If you suggest a more normal market and a £5 per sector improvement to £78.00 that adds £50m to net profit.
I am certainly paying more than last year and the level of support to London/Birmingham is reducing.
There is a fair chance of as much as a 30% potential uplift just on this one factor.

Net debt ( after ring fencing pre payments) is about 500m and covered several times by the new fleet acquired to date.

There is a chance that the company may make as much as £200m this year if all goes to plan.

Tiger

[fokker45] 01/8/2018 00:07

Primers Air announced its ending operations at BHX, 7 routes of which I believe 4 are direct compete with Jet2: AGP, ALC, PMI and TFS. It's not exactly Monarch going bust, but it all helps.

[fokker45] 31/7/2018 23:59

I am absolutely not worried about Meeson selling half a million shares, as he still has 55 million shares. He draws a very low salary for his position of 458K. Given that Meeson is now +70, I guess his tax adviser told him to sell some shares. I would expect more larger sale shares on a regular basis.

[snorkelparker] 31/7/2018 23:25

Mr Maestro and your facts to support a move to this levels are? Or are you suggesting chart patterns are predicting this?

[mr maestro] 31/7/2018 22:45

Bull flag will fail. 760p target.

Eventually 650p will be ultimate target.


It will take time, but it's happening.

[castleford tiger] 31/7/2018 22:29

Oh yes but looking at his holding it’s a tiny %
He doesn’t have time to spend it. Jet 2 is his family

[snorkelparker] 31/7/2018 19:53

CT, it does looks like a real sale to me..what do you mean by a paper filler? Would have thought If it was transfer from one hand to the other there would have been an explanation. This tranche was probably placed to raise some personal cash..

[castleford tiger] 31/7/2018 18:10

S and G sold only enough to pay tax etc. I think PM selling 500k is just a paper filler.

doogle
Yes, thanks for the fuel update CT. Your contact info is very helpful.

Even at $685 that's still very decent.

TCG...........is thomas cook group.................not sure where the S came from
NOTE THE 685$ is what they said next year s hedge is at. DART are much lower

tiger

[snorkelparker] 31/7/2018 18:06

Was this last sell off due to that I wonder along the tax sales for Stephen and Gary option positions? May be PM fancies treating himself to something.. Certainly deserves it..

[snorkelparker] 31/7/2018 18:03

Any thoughts on the sale of 500k shares by PH.. Took me a little by surprise.

[snorkelparker] 31/7/2018 18:02

See TC's results went down a storm...

[shaker44] 31/7/2018 17:48

because of some music?? hahahaha

[rick802] 31/7/2018 15:32

Time to get out??https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/news/jet2-com-s-use-of-jess-glynne-song-leads-to-complaints-1-9278330

[doogle99] 31/7/2018 13:25

Yes, thanks for the fuel update CT. Your contact info is very helpful.

Even at $685 that's still very decent.

TSCG???

I've never been good at predicting forward currency movements, very happy to get this very wrong.

[shaker44] 31/7/2018 13:07

thanks tiger. you have great contacts! I think good chance oil will drop back a little

[castleford tiger] 31/7/2018 12:44

Hedged rate Summer 18 $559 winter 18/19 $596 Summer 19 $685

The above is from todays trading update at TSCG

Doogle99

I think the other way and fully expect the pound to gain strength post brexit.
The problem there is it will depress overseas earnings of many ftse 100 companies and a stock market pull back is likely.

I spend half an hour on the phone to Gary trying to get my head round this every year.
looks like our fuel costs are well under control but we could do with aviation fuel dropping a little before we buy any more futures.

Tiger

[shaker44] 31/7/2018 09:55

since jan ,17 it has moved between about 1.25 then and 1.40 a short time ago, settling at 1.31 now in expectation of uk rate rise. pervesely trump sounding off about strong dollar being bad news may force the fed to raise rates to prove their indepence.
I realise this doesnt really answer your wuestion but the currency hedge doesnt seem such a big deal compared to oil. but whether they hedged currency at the same time may have been.influenced by gbp/usd at that point

[doogle99] 31/7/2018 09:28

Unlike Cathay Pacific who lost a shed load in bad fuel hedging....

I don't think aviation fuel /tonne cost will be the main issue. I'm more worried about the GBP/USD problem.
Maybe someone can explain the currency hedge please???

[shaker44] 31/7/2018 09:23

wow hedged at $467 is really smart, and lucky. many thanks doogle. great post

[doogle99] 31/7/2018 09:22

DTG also currency hedge with their dollar fuel costs. I haven't taken the time to look into these. Needless to say further Brexit turmoil will put headwind pressure on the strength of GBP. I can easily see a scenario where if no deal is agreed GBP taking a 10-20% hit vs USD. BOE won't be in a position to increase interest rates much in such a scenario.

Although I don't have a good track record in currency dealing....

[doogle99] 31/7/2018 09:19

Page 60. 2017 Accounts. £203 million on a $674/tonne fuel cost.
2016 £209 @$922, 2015 £233 @$961, 2014 £222 @$979
Their 12 months requirements have been hedged at 97-100% for the past 5 years.

2018 Fuel hedged at $467/tonne 97%.
2019 at $516 90%.
Didn't Gary at the AGM say they were hedged out to 2 years?

I'm personally hedged on oil too with an equal holding of Petrofac in my portfolio.

[shaker44] 31/7/2018 09:10

and do we hedge the cost?

[castleford tiger] 31/7/2018 07:36

Fuel costs could be 20% higher next year.

Without me looking at the accounts what do we spend on fuel?

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 29/7/2018 21:58

We are taking TCG market share. The 2.5 holidays last year maybe close to 3 m in current year.
Hopefully get a steer at the AGM.
With us looking at more overseas bases to add to AC we might get more inbound mid morning.
Still have to find out how we keep busy in the winter months as schedule is under 40% of available frames.
My target raised to 13.00 by 2020 looks very much on track.
We just don’t want any seismic activity in Iceland!
Tiger