Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[hybrasil] 02/3/2005 18:42

I have been selling these and they have further to fall

[lowtrawler] 01/3/2005 22:45

LoL. They have net liabilities of £196m including preference shares or £29m excluding preference shares. You should treat the preference shares as debt because they will need to be redeemed in the near term. I reckon 20p or $1.50 is around fair value. As always, the shareprice will overshoot and so we can expect a fall below this level before considering a punt.

[easykill] 01/3/2005 21:41

this is being hammered. Remember buying this a couple of years ago, did well.

bought it when it hit $1.50 intra day when a similar onslaught occurred. But exchange rate then was $1.5 to the £1 so it hit 25p before it bounced and went all the way over $5

tomorrow i assume it will open at around 21p mid (exchange rate being $1.92). So if it tests $1.50 when US opens, it could hit around 19.5p mid in the afternoon.

So tomorrow could be the day to have a speculative punt.

Anyone know what the net assets are for the company ?

[millionaire] 01/3/2005 16:24

Pile of poo. 25p is the test!!!!!!

[shirishg] 28/2/2005 11:48

Post removed by ADVFN

[hybrasil] 26/2/2005 09:01

Yes I plan to sell again on Monday. There is only one mm on the bid at 25p and I hope to get that.

[lowtrawler] 25/2/2005 22:54

US opening on Monday will be critical. If it doesn't rise back over $2 within the first 2 hours, you are looking at $1.50 for sure within the next couple of weeks - 20p.

[zulu001] 24/2/2005 13:32

American investors know this is not an "english company" despite it being listed in England for tax reasons.

[millionaire] 24/2/2005 13:13

Pile of poo. I am a holder and have been for a long time. Cannot see a reason for a rise. No interest = no buying = no rise. Shame really as once a well run company. The yanks don't like english companies being successful so they shaft them. Same as 1999/2000. I am not alone in that train of thought.

[easytimes] 23/2/2005 23:29

Now I am glad I sold at around 50p it's like catching a falling knife at the moment, still waiting for a time to re-enter would like to see some support first though.

[lowtrawler] 23/2/2005 23:18

The offer stayed solid throughout the day and although the US has tested $2 it is not clear what the outcome of that test is. Could still go either way. I reckon 60% chance of fall to 20p and 40% chance of moving to 35p.

[panagos] 23/2/2005 20:45

testing3 yr lows...looks bad

[hybrasil] 23/2/2005 20:43

Based on today I will probably sell some more tomorrow

[hybrasil] 23/2/2005 09:13

Sold this am at prices from 25 to 27p

[majic] 21/2/2005 17:06

Will attract some bottom fishers at this price. Not been in these for a while, might join you soon.

[blockbuy] 18/2/2005 13:44

thansk Lang gone then............not sure if it's good or bad.........

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 18, 2005--Danka Business Systems
PLC (NASDAQ: DANKY) today announced that, effective March 1, 2005, Lang Lowrey
will retire from the company's Board of Directors. Lowrey was the company's
Chief Executive Officer from March 2001 to March 2004 when he was succeeded by
Todd Mavis. He has been Chairman of the Board since January 2002.

As the company's Chief Executive Officer Lowrey was instrumental in
implementing plans to improve sales margins, significantly reduce debt, and
enhance the company's liquidity. In addition, Lowrey recruited the key members
of the current management team and significantly upgraded the company's
corporate governance programs, including the recruitment of several key new
board members. He also oversaw the completion of the company's Oracle systems
implementation in the U.S., and instituted numerous process and policy
initiatives to upgrade the company's operations.

"I would like to thank Lang for his leadership over the past several years
and his substantial contributions to Danka," said Mavis. "Lang came to Danka
during a very turbulent financial time for the business, and successfully
steered the company through a series of transactions which greatly improved our
long term debt structure. He was also instrumental in developing our Vision 21
strategy and growth initiatives which, as we recently announced, we continue to
implement today."

"I am proud of the accomplishments of the management team during my tenure
and was pleased to work with Todd this past year in the transition to his new
role as Chief Executive Officer," said Lowrey. "I was recently ordained into
the ministry and, as I have long stated, I am very much looking forward to
devoting my time and attention to this vocation."

"We wish Lang all the best in his future endeavors," said Andy McKenna,
Chairman of the company's Executive Committee. "Lang's leadership has helped
position the company to achieve success in this next phase of its development."

The Board of Directors has appointed Mr. McKenna as its Chairman. Mr. McKenna
is also a director at AutoZone Inc. He formerly was president and director of
SciQuest.com, a business-to-business electronic marketplace for scientific
products. He also served in several executive positions at The Home Depot,
including senior vice president of Strategic Business Development and
Import/Logistics; president of the Midwestern Division; and chief information
officer. Prior to that, Mr. McKenna spent 16 years with Deloitte & Touche. He
became a Danka director in February 2002.

[lowtrawler] 16/2/2005 23:16

US is sitting solid at around 27.25p. Makes a slight price fall in the UK inevitable. Clearly the test is whether $2 will hold. If not, I can see this falling rapidly to $1.50, that's 20p to the UK. Unless you're a gambler, don't buy until the test of $2 is through.

[johnymac] 15/2/2005 16:51

History dictates on this one that when it bounces it will bounce big time.. Im hoping history will repeat itself.

[blockbuy] 10/2/2005 13:44

nice one thanks..............just about to close my position anyhow just looked at level2 stateside and it shows another drop on the cards at the open.....

will use the extra margin to accumulate AXO .....being on the move an all..........

thing is with this and the next quarter being the seasonal best for danka there's always the gamble of a suprise..........

keeping a watching brief...........
;-)))))))))

[mrba5hir] 10/2/2005 13:37

blockbuy

usually, the higher the EV the worse it is for shareholders. It implies it has higher debt.. and Danka does high a lot of debt. EV shows how much debt the company taking over will have to take on hence will offer LESS than what shareholders expect. For shareholders, normally the lower the EV (lower debt component in the EV figure) the better.

[blockbuy] 10/2/2005 13:28

just been looking at the funnymentals page, the EV is 323m

shares in issue = 256m

strange, that makes the company worth 126p = $9.38 !!!!!

cant be right surely...............

;-))

[blockbuy] 10/2/2005 13:21

thanks lowtrader..........considering closing my long as AXO is breaking out and I'm tempted to further accumulate................
take a look..........it's one that's producing real results.......

thought DNK's debt wasnt that close....thought it was due 2008/2010?????

I may be wrong.........

anyhow ......... cant say I've remember posting $5 for ev for danky

;-)))))))))))))

[lowtrawler] 10/2/2005 12:33

Updating the figures above to 31 December 2004:

Total Assets (Excluding Intangibles) = £300m (£321m)

Short-Term Liabilities = £180m (£191m)

Long-Term Liabilities (Including Pref Shares) = £311m (£326m)

Total Net Liabilities = £191m (£196m)

[lowtrawler] 10/2/2005 12:24

Blockbuy

I repeat my post number 11921 of 15 November when the price was much higher than now:

Having sold a few months ago, I continue to hold a watching brief. Recent results are disappointing and debt (including preference shares - watch out for this hidden debt, it will need to be repaid soon) is too high. By now, we should have started to see an upturn in their finances, instead they have declined. I'm staying out until I can see the long promised turnaround.

Total Assets (Excluding Intangibles) = £321m

Short-Term Liabilities = £191m

Long-Term Liabilities (Including Pref Shares) = £326m

Total Net Liabilities = £196m

In other words, before the shareholders become entitled to ANY return, DNK will need to generate £196m. Applying a P/E of 10, DNK need to make £19.6m after interest and tax each year for the shares to be worth 0p. To justify the current share price, they need to be making over £30m after interest and tax. There is no realistic prospect of them getting anywhere close to £30m in the next year.

Arguably, with new systems, new organisation structure, increased digital base etc. etc., they should be able to generate up to £50m after interest and tax. However, competition is fierce and there can be no certainty of success. When I last invested in DNK, I had not taken into account the position with preference shares (currently £167m). Hence, the profitability required to support the current share price would only have been around £14m. I was comfortable at that level and believed there were good prospects to increase profitability to at least £30m, at which level a shareprice of around £1 was realistic.

Now that I better understand the preference shares, it fundamentally alters my view on DNK as an investment. My current view of fair value (balance of risk and reward) is around 20p.

Blockbuy - how do you get "Enterprise Value" of $5 per ADR? Have you excluded preference share debt?