Dairy Crest Share Discussion Threads

[limit up] 13/12/2010 18:47

mazarin.
bought 8000 shares today £3.80 ,there has been a buyer around for the last week,picking up stock usually at the end of the day..and no serious sellers around in size.
regds

[mazarin] 13/12/2010 17:33

Up 17.3p (+4.56%) with a strong finish is a very welcome event that later trades pushed us into the day's top10 risers column. I have just scanned various financial news sources without finding any mention of Dairy Crest Group so far. The old adage 'no smoke without fire' generally holds true, so for the time being at least it looks like we'll just have to wait to discover the reason.

[fergy4] 13/12/2010 16:43

Anyone got any ideas for the late spike today. Is a bid finally going to happen ??

[aleman] 18/11/2010 16:47

Would have thought that GNC's bid for NFDS and the talk of a higher private equity bid might have highlighted the value of foodies' cash generation but it doesn't seem to have had any effect here. NFDS rose 25% although the shares were arguably a bit depressed.

[mazarin] 11/11/2010 08:21

DCG will be making a presentation to Analysts today on their first half year results. Panmure Gordon expects DCG to reveal a 6% increase in profit before tax, made possible by an improvement in the cheese division's profitability.

"On a divisional basis we expect Cheese to report a 36% increase in profitability to £10.8m, reflecting the impact of cheese stock profits"



Today's results also report a 4% increase in Interim Dividend of 5.5p
- Additional Update -
Goes ex Div on 05/01/11 payable on 27/01/11

[aleman] 10/11/2010 10:49

RNS shows Dairy Crest non-exec, Carole Piwnica, has been appointed non-exec at Eutelstat. Owner of Naxos (hedge fund), also director of Amyris (biotech), Toepfer International GmbH (trading), Aviva, S A Spadel NV (Food and Bev),Amylum, Entenial, and advisor to Monsanto and Novetas Energy. She's a practising corporate lawyer. She's done well for herself but do non-exec's represent small shareholders?

[mazarin] 05/11/2010 11:55

Wow what's just caused this to blip up 17p a few seconds ago...? Is Theo Muller back on the trail of his slice of UK Cheese cake...?

[aleman] 04/11/2010 12:33

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd HOLD 07 Oct 2010
2010 83.00 46.47 18.90 1,629.74
2011 88.50 48.58 20.00 1,667.53
2012 94.00 51.63 22.00 1,706.40

Panmure Gordon SELL 20 Oct 2010
2010 83.50 44.50 18.90 1,631.00
2011 86.30 45.60 19.10 1,598.00
2012 89.90 48.00 19.90 1,617.00
2013 91.70 49.40 19.90 1,625.00

Shore Capital HOLD 22 Oct 2010
2010 82.00 43.80 18.90 1,629.70
2011 83.50 44.40 19.80 1,659.00
2012 82.10 43.70 21.00 1,691.00
2013 89.90 47.80 22.30 1,724.00

[mazarin] 28/10/2010 16:34

Interim trading announcement due on 11th Nov 10

[timbo003] 11/10/2010 13:10

I bought into these last week at about 380p

For me, they tick lots of boxes (in no particular order):

* FTSE 250, listed on main market, very easy to buy and sell shares, they can be held in an ISA

* Profitable

* Huge turnover

* Divi well covered

* A few nice long term contracts on the commodity buisness (milk and cream to supermarkets), they have just renewed 5 year contracts with Sainsbury and Morrison.

* Unloved by the city

* Quite a few very profitable brands which they are investing in and these are growing.

* The home delivery buisness may be just beginning to reverse it's recent decline with the introduction of milk&more.

* A competitor (Muller: privately owned with approximately 2X the turnover of Dairy Crest) have just taken a 3% stake (they probably know more than I do about Dairy Crest)

* Potential takeover target (see above)

* Another competitor (Wiseman) seem to be in a bit of bother (recent profits warning)

* No big pension liabilities, defined benefits scheme closed to new employees and further accruals for old employees.

* Nice yield (circa 5%), so I'm getting paid to wait.

* A company culture that (probably) motivates employees

[trendfloor] 01/10/2010 15:22

Dairy Crest surged 23.6 to 372.6p after Germany's Theo Mueller Group, which makes Müller yoghurts, said it had acquired a 3pc stake in the London-listed company. The move triggered speculation the secretive German dairy giant may be lining up a bid for Dairy Crest.

Damian McNeela, an analyst at Panmure Gordon, told Bloomberg: "This indicates that Mueller may make a formal offer for Dairy Crest – they might be looking to widen their product base in the UK".

[trendfloor] 30/9/2010 14:42

Bullish article from Investors Inteligence this morning.......

Among the bulls, Dairy Crest is a notable one. Price surged from the range support, at 340p, to challenged the pattern of lower highs. Its relative strength also rebounded (see right). This, we reckon, could be short-term positive and we expect prices to reach 400p, a psychological level.

[mazarin] 30/9/2010 08:30

Following from today's pre-close trading update DCG have previously announced two important long term milk supply contracts with Sainsbury's and Morrison's and are maintaining a strong focus on cash generation. Increased cheese sales across five key brands (Cathedral City, Clover, Country Life, St Hubert Omega 3 and Frijj) have improved in the first half and overall anticipate that borrowings at 30 September 2010 will be similar to those at 31 March 2010.

Mark Allen, Chief Executive, commented: 'This has been another good performance from the business. ..............We are confident that we can deliver profits this year in
line with our expectations.'

[aleman] 29/9/2010 16:29

Evolution Securities Ltd NEUT 27 Sep 2010
2010 - - - - - - - -
2011 85.90 46.20 19.80 1,605.10
2012 - - - - - - - -

Shore Capital HOLD 24 Sep 2010
2009 - - - -
2010 82.00 43.80 18.90 1,629.70
2011 83.00 44.20 19.80 1,659.00
2012 82.10 43.70 21.00 1,691.00
2013 89.90 47.80 22.30 1,724.00

[skinny] 29/9/2010 10:40

Dairy Crest Group plc ("Dairy Crest")

DAIRY CREST RENEWS LONG TERM MILK SUPPLY CONTRACT WITH MORRISONS


Dairy Crest is pleased to announce that it has renewed its fresh milk contract
with Morrisons through to 2015.

Toby Brinsmead, Managing Director of Dairy Crest's Liquid Products business,
commented: 'We are delighted to have been awarded this extension to our contract
with Morrisons. We believe our clear focus on quality, service and cost puts us
in a good position in a very competitive market".

Dairy Crest will issue its pre-close trading update for the six months ending 30
September 2010 tomorrow.

[aleman] 29/9/2010 09:48

Among the mid caps, Dairy Crest jumped 24.4p to 373.4p. After the market closed yesterday the milk producer revealed that German dairy company Theo Müller had raised its stake from 3.85m to 4.05m shares, taking it to 3.04%.

[ian77] 17/9/2010 09:21

Thanks tesco every little helps!!!!!!!!!! more reasons to shop at morrisons.

[jeavom] 16/9/2010 21:27

Thanks spob - a good bit of reporting.

I bought another lot at 337p this morning. You've got to love when the selloff is done by 10am in the morning. :-)

[muffinhead] 16/9/2010 16:00

Tesco the big school bully

[aleman] 16/9/2010 14:31

Statement Re Share Price Movement






Dairy Crest notes the RNS statement issued by Robert Wiseman Dairies PLC this morning.



The liquid milk market is currently very competitive. However, our broad customer and product base and clear improvements in our cost base, quality and service make us confident that we can deliver profits this year in line with our expectations and provide a sound base going forward.



In accordance with our normal practice we expect to issue our half-year trading update on 30 September 2010.

[spob] 16/9/2010 13:08

from Ft Alphaville markets live blog today


NH
the big news todayNH
is milkBE
It is indeed. Huge profit warning from Robert Wiseman.BE
Blaming competition.NH
milk warsNH
Asda cutting pricesNH
and Tesco followingNH
I'm kicking myself because someone pointed this out on MondayNH
and I had meant to mention itNH
not that I thought it would knock 30% of the share price of Robert WisemanRobert Wiseman Dairies PLC (RWD:LSE): Last: 353.50, down 132 (-27.19%), High: 370.00, Low: 330.10, Volume: 3.90mBE
Actually, I did make a couple of light enquiries about this yesterday.NH
andBE
As, conveniently, Dairy Crest had a big meeting for investors and scribblers.NH
they didBE
And the feedback was: "nope. Nothing happening here."NH
Foston visitNH
ActuallyNH
there's a note from RBS on thisNH
have a lookNH
just goes to show that when a management team saysNH
that won't affect usNH
or the slowdown won't affect usNH
because people will always need to drink milkNH
it's time to sellNH NH
No major surprises came out of the Foston site visit, but 'milk&more' looks to be
doing better than expected and there is as yet no profit impact from multiple
retail price competition on liquid milk. Prior to the 1H trading update at the end of
September, we reiterate our Buy recommendation and 440p TP.NH
here's the key bitNH
As has been widely reported in the trade press, the UK multiple retailers are currently heavily
promoting fresh milk. Dairy Crest management observed that retail prices are a matter for retailers.
Thus far, promotion has been most intense at retailers where the company has little or no
exposure. If milk remains a promotional battleground for an extended period, this could change,
but we believe promotions are so far having a minimal impact on Dairy Crest. Overall,
management's body language seems confident prior to the IMS expected at the end of this month.
We see the shares, on 8.2x FY11F PE, as cheap given the positive progress the group is making
across a range of fronts.BE
Oh dear.BE
Fast forward to today and RBS, who bear in mind are shop to Dairy Crest, are sending around this.BE
Dairy Crest*
Wiseman profit warning implications
Dairy Crest's shares have fallen 8% today in the wake of Robert Wiseman's profit
warning. While we understand the market's caution, we believe this is an overreaction,
as we believe trading remains on track and the risk to Dairy Crest's
profits is materially lower than is the case for Wiseman.
BE
Robert Wiseman profit warning
Wiseman this morning issued a profit warning, indicating that its FY11 profits are expected to be
£7m lower than it had previously anticipated, while its FY12 profits will be £16m lower, equivalent
to EPS reductions of 16% and 33% respectively. These have been attributed to the "recent intense
competitive pressures across all sectors of the market", a reference to the impact of the aggressive
promotional activity being undertaken by some retailers on UK liquid milk. However, we believe the
overwhelming cause of this profits shortfall is a reduction in its margins with Tesco, which accounts
for 50% of its major multiple volume, as a result of recent renegotiations. It had previously
successfully agreed terms with its other two major retail customers, Sainsbury and the Co-op,
hence it is reasonable to conclude that Tesco is entirely responsible for this profit warning.
BE
Readthrough for Dairy Crest
We believe Wiseman's problems should not impact Dairy Crest's trading performance. DCG does
not supply Tesco with liquid milk. In addition, earlier this year it reached a three-year supply
agreement with Sainsbury and negotiated a new contract with the Co-op, in total covering around
45% of the group's major retail milk volume. While the group is not in a position to discuss the
specific arrangements it has with its other key customers (Morrison, Waitrose and M&S), we do not
believe these carry any material risk to the group's profitability. In addition, Wiseman's profit
warning highlights the benefits of DCG's broadly based portfolio, with retail milk accounting for an
estimated 21% of operating profit in FY11 vs 100% for Wiseman. Hence we believe any profits
shortfall in DCG's retail milk business would have a materially smaller impact on group profits. By
way of illustration, a 33% fall in its retail milk profits in FY12F would lead to a 7% fall in DCG EPS.
BE
Weakness provides a buying opportunity
We can understand the market's nervousness here, but believe the forthcoming 1H update should
provide considerable reassurance re the group's prospects. A 2011F PE of 7.3x and well-covered
yield of 5.9% offers significant medium term upside.NH
24 hours is a long time in milkNH
and I don't follow the argumentNH
surely Sainsbury will followNH
and MarksNH
annd the restBE
True. The point of a defacto monopoly sector is that they all move together.BE
And, usually, the suppliers get crushed.NH
just back to Robert Wiseman for a momentNH
the back story here is that on MondayNH
Tesco matched Asda's promotion on milk
which reduced the price of a 4 pint poly from £1.53 to £1.25NH
equivalent to a 12ppl reduction in the shelf price, apparentlyNH
and that triggered today's warningNH
that operating profits this year would fall £7mNH
and a lot more next yearNH
anywayNH
this note from InvestecNH
broker to RWD sums it all upNH
Robert Wiseman has issued a trading update for the 1H10 period and whilst this
states that the 1H performance is in line with expectations, the outlook for the
second half is likely to be impacted by the results of recent competitive pressuresNH
Volumes across this process have been retained so we still anticipate the group
processing something in the region of 1860m litres this year, but intense
competition has resulted in lower selling prices and RWD expects this to impact
on FY11E profits to the tune of £7m. This would reduce our old forecasts (shown
above) from £43m to £36m and EPS to 36p (-16%). This equates to a FY pence
per litre margin of 2p. Assuming no improvement in margins, the annualised
impact on FY12E is £16m and this would reduce our forecast from £44m to
£28m, with EPS of 28p (-36%). The margin on this basis is 1.5ppl which is the
lowest we have seen from the group to date and a level at which the group would
question the benefits of further sizeable investment projectsNH
RWD has previously reported successful conclusions to negotiations with
Sainsbury and the Co-op and these have been factored into our forecasts.
Hence, we can only conclude that the main issue has arisen post a review
conducted by Tesco. On Monday, Tesco matched Asda's promotion on milk
which reduced the price of a 4 pint poly from £1.53 to £1.25. This is the
equivalent to a 12ppl reduction in the shelf price. Additionally, Tesco is
announcing that it will be increasing the price it pays to farmers by 1.28ppl.NH
This is clearly very disappointing for shareholders and RWD management alike
and for the next 6 months there are no obvious catalysts which could change this.
However, we should be aware that there are two retail accounts due to re-tender
in the coming year, Asda and Morrison, neither of which RWD deals with
presently. If there are any repercussions for pricing on these accounts it will not
impact on RWD, but it will of course be looking to see if there are any volume
opportunities for them in this process.NH
who knewNH
milk could be so interestingBE
Hm. On a day like this, I guess "interesting" is a relative term.

[jeavom] 16/9/2010 11:18

The fall is due to a profits warning at Robert Wiseman, where a milk price war has resulted in a profit warning for the next 18 months.

[aleman] 16/9/2010 10:54

Took advantage of the dip to take a small holding here.

[mazarin] 16/9/2010 10:02

Robert Wiseman's (RWD) reported future profit reductions by around £7m knocked 30% off its opening 'sp' today and clearly has had a knock-on effect here that may have triggered 'stop loss' horizons.