Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[stav5001] 26/4/2016 19:00

Cancun Tango

Still here held from 1P......not as wise as you

[rambutan2] 26/4/2016 17:15

Second half of today's Business Daily raised some questions in my mind re how the Iran deal will work. Well worth a listen.

[multibagger] 26/4/2016 14:46

Though there are about 7.1b shares in issue, it feels that the free float is getting tighter. People who wanted to sell have done so it appears (on the move from .0014 region) and now those that are buying/holding are in it for a slightly longer haul. I have added....Getting more interesting :)

[multibagger] 26/4/2016 13:58

Hi tightfist,I refering to L.S.E thread...

....all we need is a tiny sliver of the massive recurrent revenue smart grid market. With an early mover and technology advantage, we should get a decent conversion rate on the contracts that we bid for.

[dwall] 26/4/2016 13:47

sbp

Cronin answers the patent element in the above presentation, vaguely? circa 21 mins in.

[stupidboypike] 26/4/2016 12:24

Can anyone give a really short layman's explanation of Cyan's competitive advantage here. A quick glance at their website shows no patents, what protects the company from copycats?

Best regards SBP

[cancun tango] 26/4/2016 10:51

tightfist

There's a bit more detail here:

hxxp://indiasmartgrid.org/site/admin/upload/201604Wed174558.pdf

[tightfist] 26/4/2016 10:06

Many thanks Multibagger, the ISGF document and especially pp11,12 are critical and valuable reading for Cyan watchers/holders. (I am not aware of the other discussion Board you are referring to).

"It is proposed to engage a central agency who will issue tender for procurement of smart meters as per BIS Standards (IS 16444 and IS 15959.......The rates will be finalised......with rates of meter and different communication devices which the Discoms can choose based on their unique requirements". This indicates a new round of centralised (and highly competitive?) tendering, based on delineated communications/technology capabilities?

The government roll-out (aspirational?) plan was published last November, founded on the Indian government shoring-up Discom balance sheets. Now it appears that external financing is the way forward. "Hence in the interest of faster roll-out, it is proposed to have a financial intermediary who will buy meters and communication devices from the manufacturers and lease it to the Discoms against a monthly rent for a period of ten years".

"....it is feasible to undertake AMI implementation on LEASING and SERVICES MODEL at a approximate cost of Total - Rs 69/meter/month (167% RoI on capital cost for ten years)". Currently Rs 69 = 71p.

Plenty to chew-on regarding timing, technical standards/competition and financial attractiveness. One wonders how much clout the ISGF has with the Government and how their position paper is reviewed and adopted?


Cheers, tightfist

[stupidboypike] 26/4/2016 08:36

Thanks multibagger. The document concludes:- "300 million smart meters in
India in next 5-7 years!"
That's a lot of (hopefully Cyan) chips! Best regards SBP

[multibagger] 26/4/2016 06:46

Courtesy of BigShyTed on the other board, 16:09, 25 Apr 2016


Ministry of Power has recently announced the Government's
vision to rollout smart metering on fast track for customers with
a monthly consumption of 500kWh and above in Phase-1 by
December 2017 and for customers with monthly consumption
of 200kWh and above in Phase-2 by December 2019. This goal
is reiterated in the UDAY program and in the Tariff Policy
announced by MoP. In view of the massive investment
required for smart metering or Advance Metering Infrastructure
(AMI) to cover about 50 million customers in next 4 years, ISGF
presents an innovative financing and implementation model in
this paper.

axxp://www.indiasmartgrid.org/upload/201604Sat131710.pdf

[zengas] 25/4/2016 10:14

M/cap here is £18.1m

Considering the recent £10m Iranian order for 360k units and the suggestion that the next planned rollout of 1m units from there might come our way (possibly £29m based pro-rata that a broker suggested) this implies a very cheap overlooked company given where it already has made inroads such as India and a potential meter market of 131m units and 33m electric meters in Iran.

Has or does anyone follow or looked at AIM listed Smart Metering Sytsems UK and concentrates on the UK market though it also installs/owns some of the meters. Tunover to end 2015 = £53.9m. Profit £15m. Debt £76m. M/cap = £370m.

Cyan is debt free, just won it's biggest ever order and has a value of under 5% of SMS. Surely it can grow to 20-30% of what SMS is valued at ie £10-£15m revenue, little eventual debt, profits of £3-£4.5m and be worth 4-6 times its current m/cap simply on a pro-rata to SMS. Surely on its prospects/market wins it must look an enticing acquisition target while it remains so cheap.

Last month SMS secured a bank consortium facility up to £150m for growth and acquisitions in the smart meter market.

"Smart Metering Systems plc, based in Glasgow, connects, owns, operates and maintains metering systems and databases on behalf of major energy companies. The Company provides a fully integrated service from beginning to end to cover the installation of a gas/electricity supply/connection to the procurement, installation and management of a gas or electricity meter asset to the collection and management of customer data and ongoing energy management services.

[spike_1] 25/4/2016 09:59

timbo: my thanks also - much appreciated
Best wishes - Mike

[multibagger] 25/4/2016 08:22

Looks like we may be building up to a decent volume day with an improved share price at close :)

[bilbosenior] 25/4/2016 07:40

Thanx for your report and the time you gave. Much appreciated

[johnwall] 25/4/2016 07:33

Yes, thanks for taking the time and trouble timbo

[multibagger] 25/4/2016 07:23

Thanks timbo003 for taking the time and effort to share....much appreciated :)

[zengas] 24/4/2016 19:23

Thanks for the update timbo.

[dwall] 24/4/2016 18:33

Timbo

Again thanks for taking the time to update here.

[cancun tango] 24/4/2016 18:01

Thanks for that timbo, much appreciated.

[lynxboy] 23/4/2016 20:58

likewise Timbo, many thanks for taking the time and sharing views

[tightfist] 23/4/2016 20:44

Thanks Timbo; I wasn't able to go this year but look forward to the nuggets. Simon and John C seemed unusually upbeat when I saw them ten weeks ago, but they had the Iranian deal up their sleeves!

Cheers, tightfist

[timbo003] 23/4/2016 19:50

Cyan were at the Master Investor show today, JC gave the presentation which I missed as it overlapped with another one where I have an very modest interest (Valirx), I did however have a fairly long chat with Simon Smith at the Cyan stand which was illuminating and revealed a few nuggets which were new to me, I'll endeavor to write up a few notes later this weekend and post them here.

[multibagger] 22/4/2016 16:30

Taking advantage of the lull, I took another 3.1m @0.2550...not showing up, though later buys are showing up at 0.2575.

Some may worry about the consolidation and the inevitable debt arrangements but CYAN is de-risked IMHO. Given the scale of some massive markets where it has early mover advantage and new geographies, smart metering has the potential to take off like mobile phone adoption did in the late nineties/early noughties.

Good luck all :)

[tightfist] 22/4/2016 14:45

My only concern about an imminent consolidation is that it would likely be accompanied by a placing before we have more substantive newsflow.

I would welcome a consolidation in due course to immediately present Cyan as a more respectable investment proposition, and shed it's torrid past evidenced by the share price (and hence number of shares in issue).

History indicates that we could wait a very long time to get a framework deal inked with Tata; share price drifting steadily lower has to be quite likely, unless other Rabbits appear out of the Hat like the Iranian one! Of course, there are many other opportunities within India, especially now that Government incentives are involved.