Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[lwaxf13] 23/5/2018 17:05

If they continue to perform in their unique world leading way then 0p is inevitable. IMO. the hundreds of thousands invested by the smart cookies will not look too smart then. In fact it does not look too smart now given this share only goes one direction.

[cancun tango] 23/5/2018 12:45

Realist

You're spot on regarding the delayed contract. Inventories at year end up £800k yoy. Which, I imagine, is what they produced but didn't get paid for. Value of the delayed sale would depend on what price the stock is booked at.

[emptyend] 23/5/2018 12:16

I agree the point about further funding being needed - but I think it is a mistake to assume it would have to come from shareholders.

[realist1950] 23/5/2018 09:55

It is, imo, misguided, to blame the poor 2017 revenues exclusively on the so called 'delayed' contract.

The revenues are in fact perfectly in line with CYAN's past historic performance, ie poor. Poor year in, year out.

So nothing has changed.

Perhaps by highlighting a delayed contract, it brings the illusion of 'progress' along with the effect of shifting or deflecting the focus of blame for yet another financially bad year.

And now you have a new contract.

And you're told payments to come this year.

I am of the mind that I'd rather 'watch the birdie'. That is, watch for the 'delayed' contracts before I focus on the new. There is form here for announcing contracts only for them not to materialise and in the meantime, new opportunities flagged.

If you remove the excuses or reasoning, the fact remains that CYAN have sold little, banked little....all of which is in line with previous years.

The new broker note, which has just landed on my desk, seems more sober and cautious.

The need for more working capital to actually execute/deliver orders is not what you want to see. And there is now plenty of warning of the highly speculative nature of the business, at this stage.

I do not view cyan as 'early stage'.

I have followed it for over a decade and have seen it flux and reinvent itself.

It has, on several occasions, been on the brink of apparent breakthrough, only for nothing to arrive and for the company to instead bend to the demands and bureaucracy of the emerging markets it targets. Trial after trial. Trial after trial. Smoke and mirrors.

Sensible investors, who make money, would probably look at this and wait for the situation to become derisked and buy at a higher price.

You have pretty much been told further funding will be required so I can not think why one would want to throw money in at this point.

As ever, these are just my views / opinions and ADYOR etc.

[smithless] 23/5/2018 09:45

A staggering £57m of cash has been thrown into this business over the years to generate £1.17m of revenue - unbelievable. I would say Ken was better at running a business than John, but he wasn't. Same sort of promises year after year.

[mtw] 22/5/2018 21:11

There is a good reason a competitor hasn't done a buy out... even at this MktCap it is not seen as good value.

[lwaxf13] 22/5/2018 17:06

They over rate their own abilities IMO and threw money into this believing they had what it takes to deliver. Time has proven that the smart cookies at Cyan called it very wrong. The scary bit is they are on the inside and know how bad things really are but they threw money at this. There is no way to sugar coat this. It has been a f££ing disaster. World leading?!! Please ...

[emptyend] 22/5/2018 15:22

Not quite. I've gone into this with my eyes open. I've got a lot of time for some (not necessarily all....) of the directors who I know have forgotten more about tech than I will ever learn. And I know they don't throw their own money about. Now some will say that they have been well-paid.....and that is broadly right..... but they have no need to turn around and reinvest it at the rate of £60-100k pa, as some have done.Of course they might prove to be wrong. And they might fail to spot some threats etc. But I think they have a decent shot at growing the business and making their money back (some of which went in at triple my own average).We'll see.

[owenski] 22/5/2018 13:34

".....well in essence you are just dressing-up the share price fall"

I think emptybellend is dressing up the business case.

[realist1950] 22/5/2018 13:21

The Bull:-

I agree. 5p - 7p will be the next trading range.

The question I have is, will CYAN fall to that level before or after the next fundraising.

The results and accompanying statement are riddled with so many issues (existing and further potential issues) it's really very hard to know where to start.

CYAN hasn't been a sound investment for years and years and years.

And I personally do not think anything has changed.

Clearly the cost base, although reduced, is still high. Clearly further funding will be required. Clearly there remains uncertainty over revenue flows. Clearly there remains uncertainty over project roll-outs - and not just for cyan. Clearly there remains uncertainty over industry standards and what the overall direction of travel will be (technologically) across multiple territories / markets. I could go on.

In the face of the above, why anyone would bother bottom fishing this one is beyond me.

Pretty much everyone, in the history of CYAN being a listed company, are down on their investment.

Let someone else fund it and buy the risk imo.

Sit back.

Watch.

Remove yourself from that risk................and buy a few years down the line - de-risked......and that's IF they make it.

All imo. ADYOR.

[escapetohome] 22/5/2018 13:15

Company good, method of finance not self sustaining , un sustainable.

Company cant control take up of orders , exposed to third world.

Fund raising after fundraising after placing after rights issue ad infinitum, never ending.

[mtw] 22/5/2018 10:45

Cronin announces that the new technology is excellent news for shareholders as it creates additional value. Ermmmm…..

[realist1950] 22/5/2018 09:40

And that, emptyend, is exactly what you're intended to think.

Like waves of PI's before you.

Regards.

[emptyend] 21/5/2018 23:20

.....well in essence you are just dressing-up the share price fall. Certainly some reasonably lumpy pieces of remuneration have been reinvested (unwisely to date, it seems) in the shares - so one needs to look at that picture in the round.Of course there is a question over whether the business model will actually deliver as expected, but the broad picture is that the level of investment cash required (and the time required) to reach the current stage has been longer than expected. But that is at least partly down to unforeseen events, such as the client not taking products, not paying etc....with the result that Cyan need an additional X million of working capital.The fact that a new venture requires more time and money than the promoters originally thought is not unique to Cyan. Indeed it applies to the vast majority of growing companies. What matters is whether they are actually near "turning a corner" on revenue generation or not. If they are, then the share price could easily recover smartly....because once the business generates enough cash the dilutions will stop.Similarly, if the industry thinks they could be near turning a corner, then there is a high(ish) chance of a strategic investor taking a 20-30% interest and funding the next 2/3/4 years before cashflow kicks in more strongly. That could happen tomorrow for all we know - and, if it did, would be transformative for the share price as it would lift the spectre of further dilution.I don't think the board are idiots. In fact there are at least a couple of smart cookies on there who would see though any sales-oriented b/s and wishful thinking. I don't see this drift continuing indefinitely.

[lwaxf13] 21/5/2018 21:56

When do we find out what cracking bonuses the top drawer team got in 2017? I hope they get bigger this year for the value add they bring to the table. It can't be easy getting things so wrong over and over and a share price down about 90% since arriving.

[realist1950] 21/5/2018 20:02

Because there aren't really any 'major share holders' here as such. None, in my opinion, of any serious note anyway.

The shares from placings, over the years, have, on the whole (although not exclusively) gone to fairly poor quality investors and funds imo. No one has, apparently, ever really taken a sufficient quantity to really care. And in any case they've been pretty much diluted out of existence anyway, as we've seen.

Companies like CYAN, which are inherently high risk, and who are conducting BRR media interviews and talking to sites like proactive investors don't really attract the kind of institutions the likes of which solid, growing companies (with proven business models) do. They do attract certain kinds of fund manager.....who have instruction from clients to have 'X' percent of their portfolio exposed to high risk tech, for instance, but the amounts invested are paltry in comparison to others.

These funds, along with certain quarters of the retail investment community are the lifeblood of companies like cyan.

As I have been at pains to express in recent months.......do a google search for the company. Many, many of the search results are all investment related. There is in contrast a paucity of results which actually relate to cyan's (industry) operations. Further, the company is seldom mentioned on third party company search results either.

The investment community has therefore become CYAN's primary 'customer' over the past 10 years. After all, it is from this source from whence the majority of their money has been derived.

The above is purely my opinion and people should reach their own conclusions.

[lwaxf13] 21/5/2018 19:44

Why is no major share holder calling the executive performance here for what it is?!!

I listened to the BRR Media production earlier and had a sense of I have heard this all before more than once. I did have to chuckle when I heard we are back at the ARM licensing type model. That makes everything alright then. Cyan Inside :-) Licensing model lol. Trouble enough as it is just trying to sell products.

[realist1950] 21/5/2018 19:40

Iwax, they are not going to sack themselves. And the shareholding structure / concentrations ensures that no one else can do it.

[lwaxf13] 21/5/2018 19:37

Err ... The share price is very controllable. All the world leading team needed to do was call something right for a change and sell stuff that generates real money. Not just money on PowerPoints. They call it wrong time and time again, year in, year out. Cyan has failure down to an art form but never let that get in the way of a nice bonus. Sackings should have been on the cards years ago. Anyone thinks this is not going to 0p please explain why not :-)

[realist1950] 21/5/2018 19:32

Extraordinary post, emptyend.

"So the main charge seems to be that the share price has fallen."

The charges here are varied, numerous and go back years and years.

I suggest you compare the renumeration packages vs performance for one. Also take a look at the catalogue of 'promises' over the years that have not come to fruition. Further, look for other sizeable announced contracts that actually never materialised. Also the near constant need to 're-invent'. All whilst never delivering any significant revenues.

As I have said, the company would have gone bust a decade (yes a DECADE) ago (I was a relatively young man) had the company not regularly tapped the market for more money and created serious dilution as a result.

If you're hanging your recent share purchase on the most recently delayed contract, then you're deluded.

I suggest your research extends back further than the last six months.

There remains, at this point, no business here; the model is in no way proven.

All in my opinion, as ever.

Regards.

[lwaxf13] 21/5/2018 16:36

How did cyan end up with these clowns in charge? Still no one at the top is sacked for this train wreck.