Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[courant] 07/8/2012 07:04

Perfect timing with my sale ;-). However, I've bought back in - this significantly changes the game as there appears to be a very obvious value outer on the way, making the medium term business outlook far less relevant. Should be an interesting few weeks!

[dangersimpson2] 06/8/2012 21:02

Yes, 1% a day seems to be the liquidity level the market will give them with modest price increases driving out loose stock. I wonder whether the disclosure will slow their accumulation however the relatively modest price rise today suggests there is still some loose stock around for them to pick up despite everyone having a good idea as to their intentions now.

[boonkoh] 06/8/2012 18:40

Note the date of the actual trigger. It's last Thursday. Wouldn't be surprised to see if they've added on friday too and an rns tomorrow for 7 or 8%

[fargonorthdakota] 06/8/2012 17:47

Now this is getting interesting!

[philjh] 06/8/2012 17:45

Havas have increased - RNS after the bell

[fargonorthdakota] 06/8/2012 14:07

I topped up my holding as I think this will be an interesting share!

[dangersimpson2] 06/8/2012 12:14

In general there is very little reason for a larger company to take a stake in a competitor unless they are at least considering some form of corporate action. Companies' management tend to stick to what they are mandated to do by shareholders which is run the business they have, and non-investment companies that step out of their mandate and 'play the markets' with shareholders funds are usually (rightfully imo) given a kicking by shareholders.

The only case where cross holdings can be acceptable is when it helps cement a strategic partnership. Usually these are not acquired in the market though.

So in summary I think some positive action is definitely on the cards - given the nature of the shareholder register (fairly activist large holders and no management blocking stake) a bid is most likely and will have to be put to shareholders even if the management think it undervalues the company. Even if it turns out to only be a strategic partnership with a larger agency it would be a very welcome development.

[rivaldo] 06/8/2012 11:46

It's starting.....



"Marketing services group Creston has climbed nearly 11% following news after the market closed on Friday that French advertising giant Havas had declared a 5.18% stake. Johnathan Barrett at Singer Capital Markets said:

Unless there is clarity to the contrary there is likely to be bid speculation. In general, larger agencies are significantly more highly rated than smaller peers and therefore acquisitions would be prima facie accretive. The marketing services sector is in good health, despite tough [macroeconomic environment], and larger groups are looking to invest cash flow in acquisitions. Creston [is] both cheap and likely to be subject to approaches unless its valuation rises to reflect the fundamentals of its attractive assets, client list and health unit."

[fargonorthdakota] 06/8/2012 10:59

100p would be a great waiting room, 200p on bid would be fab!

[madengland] 06/8/2012 09:51

Bit of a tree shake by looks AT trades on bid.

[madengland] 06/8/2012 09:21

Does 100p look like a good waiting room for a deal?

[madengland] 06/8/2012 09:20

Was it 750M euro you mentioned Havas had set aside for acquisitions Riv? Thanks for the link, will be interesting to see this pan out.

[rivaldo] 06/8/2012 08:48

Some coverage already in media sector info sites:



"Published 3rd Aug 2012, 23:08
Havas buys shares in Creston: Interpublic stock also leaps

Havas has acquired a 5% shareholding in the UK listed group Creston, just as all the industry talk had been about a possible marriage between Havas and Interpublic.

And no sooner had Creston disclosed the Havas investment than Interpublic became the focus of unattributed share buying too, prompting the statement: "We are aware of the activity in our stock today. It is our policy not to comment on market rumours or speculation."

There's more, but it's subscription-only.

[markt] 06/8/2012 08:35

...at least we now know why the price rose and rose....and rose again ...defying all odds....on the way up from 55p....

----

If there ever is an offer for Creston in future months or years...then perhaps a possible home for any cash received..would be Ruffer...ticker RICA.....looks to have a definite uptrend to its graph....doubled since 2004...and looks to have coped AMAZINGLY well with the 2009 market fall....it didnt fall at all !!...went up !....thats interesting imho...

[markt] 06/8/2012 08:34

Another 20p up and itll be back at the price it started at when Don Elgie moved in back in 2000 ! he he !

;-)


but Creston in the top 5 risers for the day so far......that doesnt happen very often...

(but if Havas dont make an offer before 11am today..or maybe Wednesday..then the market might start getting bored !)

[madengland] 06/8/2012 08:33

There is certainly much interest post aegis and the recent wpp acquisition, so look out for a mention or two.

[funkmasterp12] 06/8/2012 08:24

Good point - director renumeration actually might work in our favour this time!

It's easy to get carried away and I'll be glued to any further RNS's this week, but a great start nonetheless. One thing to note is that there's been no press really on this so far - if the media get a sniff, which they may after today's rise, who knows..

[madengland] 06/8/2012 08:22

You are right Riv, take out Elgie salary and you double that. lol.

Seems we have broken the resistance at 72p!!! Question is where do we settle now?

[rivaldo] 06/8/2012 08:09

Whoosh :o))

In a bid scenarion CRE could be worth anything from 150p upwards to 200p given 13.6p EPS forecast this year - and with prospective savings from salaries of Elgie etc you could be looking at even more.

[rivaldo] 05/8/2012 07:59

Terrific news :o))

Havas are absolutely huge, one of the largest global media groups. They've acquired 5% of CRE from nowhere. There will be inevitable bid speculation about this decisive move.

Particularly when you consider what Havas' CEO said just 5 days ago! In the FT Havas' intentions to make acquisitions and their lack of digital revenues and exposure were highlighted:



"Havas also has the industry's highest exposure to the slowing European ad market and derives the lowest portion of its revenues from the fast-growing digital market, according to Barclays.

Mr Jones says he is positioning Havas to grow amid the rise of digital media and new technologies that are transforming the industry."

"To grow faster than its rivals, analysts say, Havas needs to make acquisitions. Last year it set aside €750m for deals and has since made a series of small acquisitions. Mr Jones says Havas is seeking out more deals but is not bidding for LBi, a digital advertising company on the market."

[funkmasterp12] 03/8/2012 22:19

Yep. They were linked to Aegis pre the takeover, the Havas MD had a stake in them but recently sold. Seems to be they are looking for more reach into the Digital sphere...

[boonkoh] 03/8/2012 21:21

Surely its not the same Havas, who are quite a big media agency?

[funkmasterp12] 03/8/2012 17:40

Havas are coming to the party. Has to be a good sign.

[markt] 03/8/2012 11:30

so Ruffer have reduced their reported holding by 450k shares....

curtains and mist...we dont know who to....looks to me like it was an arranged/agreed sale since the share price was so stable over repeated buys...and no balancing sale showed yesterday ...although perhaps at the end of the day...one assumes that the 450k Ruffer sale will show at some time if not already...

could be a move from one part of Ruffer to another....or to another institution...

could be profit taking on those shares since price has recently jumped from 50p area to 70p area.....big chunk of money if you have a large holding.

---

"Need to find a replacement institution (not easy) - or this price is going nowhere for ages."
...only...only if Ruffer wanted to off load more shares..to someone else...and we dont know that..
and discretionary clients it says...the aims and criteria for the different clients are different one assumes....