Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[d1nny] 10/8/2012 16:06

yea agreed, i think this is just a bit of a tree shake. I think the only reason it hasn't dropped further is there is obviously still a lot of demand for it

[funkmasterp12] 10/8/2012 15:31

All the signs point towards an offer - they had an interest in Aegis, the MD has gone on record several times to say that acquisitions are on their agenda and he's also pledged not to sell Havas itself.

I think they're playing it safe after the initial burst - they must be encouraged by the fact it didn't go ballistic after the 6% announcement, which is pretty significant. Today's price moves feel driven by MM / loose sellers more than anything - the price appears to be holding. I would be surprised if we didn't see more activity very soon though.

[d1nny] 10/8/2012 15:26

i think that there long term play will be to hoover up a strategic stake and look at that effects that share price.

If they can get to 25% without pushing it up over 130p i think they will make the offer

[madengland] 10/8/2012 15:13

Are havas just happy to hoover a few before an offer, or are they just intending to hold a strategic stake?

[markie7] 10/8/2012 14:36

and over 30% triggers mandatory offer.

[markie7] 10/8/2012 14:36

remember if they go over 10%, then any offer made in the next 12 months has to be in cash and at least at the highest price paid over the last 12 months.

[d1nny] 10/8/2012 14:17

i saw that trade on the 7th, it looked too big to be a merchant to merchant trade,

but as you say the price is going to be dependent on how much Havas buy,

i also notice the naked trader is holding this at the moment and has taken a few more recently

[madengland] 10/8/2012 12:22

Yes D1nny,nervous or happy with their gain, its a good buy opp imo. Havas are not going to sell, but likely buy more at some stage. I am wondering if they had another 1% on the 7th but have not yet notified. Do they have a week to do so anyone know?

[d1nny] 10/8/2012 11:42

i will be doing the same, i noticed that there has been some movement today, obviously just nervous investors jumping ship and taking their 20p profit from the last month.

[madengland] 09/8/2012 16:51

Hi Rivaldo, yes agree on that, just sit back let a few sellers release some stock and hoover a few more. Am sure mm will play a few games to help shake a few sellers

[puku] 09/8/2012 13:16

I see Cello has also risen well recently - speculation ?

[d1nny] 09/8/2012 09:40

i see this going up to about 130, i think at that value it then becomes a little on the expensive side.

I have seen a number of people talking about this going as high as high as 200, which i cant see.

They are a great little company but i am always cautious of holding service industry stocks as they hold little in the way of assets and there is always another service provider around the corner.

[rivaldo] 09/8/2012 08:37

Havas are playing a canny game. They've already nabbed 6% in just a couple of days, so no need to push the share price overmuch by now aggressively going into the market.

All they need to do is sit and slowly collect up shares as they become available from stale holders etc. After all, the price they're eventually going to have to pay is some way above the current price, so in theory they could steadily collect up shares until they own 29.9% before they're obliged to bid.

It won't go that far of course, but the next few days and weeks will certainly be interesting.

[boonkoh] 08/8/2012 16:14

Surprised they didn't cross another % holding on Friday, the last day before the price jumped. I think if they didn't keep building a stake on that day, they're unlikely to have done so on Monday and Tuesday (why pay more when you could have paid less?)

[rivaldo] 08/8/2012 12:02

Around 1.4m shares traded since Havas' last disclosure by my calculation, so if they're still buying there may not be too long until another disclosure.

[funkmasterp12] 08/8/2012 11:09

Lots of AT trades of 2,325 shares going through. Let's hope it's another stock-up...

[markt] 07/8/2012 15:53

What EV/EBITDA would 120p represent ?

If it is 3.6 now, ref. Riv. post and Singer....(if true then the ratio must have been really low when price was 50p !....but the lay off news was still relatively fresh...)

then 120p would mean 5.4 I think....50% increase

(in hindsight time to buy was...under 60p imo.....massive % increase since then..in short time..I managed to get some at 49p....if only we could go back in time I'd pick up a few more !......if one is willing to take a big risk there is still big money to be made in current market if pile in to 1 share and get it right...but risk of -ve business in current economic mkt makes the risk bigger)

[dangersimpson2] 07/8/2012 15:33

I think 200p is unrealistic unless we get some kind of serious bidding war purely because of the size of the premium to the trading range over the last year.

Havas could probably save £1m+ of costs by getting rid of the Creston Board which would be an extra 10%+ on EPS but they would be daft not to offer at a level that is the minimum acceptable to the large shareholders. Given the market conditions and previous trading range I would expect a bid in the range 120-150p would probably be successful despite the low EV/EBITDA that it would represent.

[boonkoh] 07/8/2012 14:09

The strategy for acquiring shares cheaply is to do as much as you can before you have to declare your stake (so within the first 3 working days of crossing the 3% threshold).

As mentioned in my previous post, I highly suspect Havas kept acquiring more at the sub-70p price on Friday, before they had to announce their stake (and before the share price went up on Monday morning). They'll be foolish not to have done so.

Whether they've acquired further on Monday and today, not so sure about that, as the price has already moved up quite a bit.

Will be interesting to see if there are any rumours of additional attention from competitors in Creston.

[rivaldo] 07/8/2012 13:47

Markt, see my earlier posts - it's EV/EBITDA that really shows the value here.

Plus any savings on listing costs, remuneration for directors (and other executives) and overheads would be made immediately or almost immediately.

[markt] 07/8/2012 13:04

wow...82p to buy.....its cooking...

( I keep on expecting a fall back...but has kept going up....)

----

(if there were to be an offer...
at around 80p then the CRE earnings would boost the EPS of havas...
but if buy at 150p-200p...then looks to be similar initial EPS to Havas and hence no initial starting impact on Havas EPS......any medium term benefits, different subject, and take time to end up in EPS results)

[rivaldo] 07/8/2012 10:53

I thought Singer's comment that "the shares trade on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.6 times, which it claims is half average price of larger peers" is revealing.

That implies a takeover price of at least 150p, and with the usual premium of around 25%-30% to the median then you're looking at 200p, especially with savings on PLC costs and director salaries etc.

I suppose the eventual price will depend on the extent of the Board's - and the major shareholders' - desire for a premium and their arrangements going forward, which may or may not influence a price above 150p or so.

[markt] 07/8/2012 10:06

....."If you don't kill your legacy business, someone else will."...interesting...

---

"In May, Havas bought Creative Lynx, a digital health-care communications company, which is based in the UK. "

anyone know what sort of P/E ratings or other ratios ...Havas has been paying for the acquisitions it has made ?

---

Creston share price % rise...again and again....surprises me....but looks like Havas driven
be interesting to see what happens/develops
(Havas may be buying....but others are happy to sell...perhaps buyers from 50-60p region...be interesting to see what happens when those sellers are gone....)
will Havas keep buying....and may be much lower daily volume if most sellers are gone..and up to price...?
...by comparison...WPP share buying at other marketing company....done very slowly over time....so as not to drive up the price...

[rivaldo] 07/8/2012 09:58

I note from UK-Analyst that Singer Capital said yesterday:

"French advertising group Havas has acquired a 5.18% stake in the marketing advisory firm, which likely to lead to speculation over a possible takeover bid. Singer noted that the marketing sector is in good health, with large companies looking to invest their cash. On the broker's forecasts, the shares trade on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.6 times, which it claims is half average price of larger peers. The shares flew up by 5.25p to 75.63p."

[rivaldo] 07/8/2012 07:57

Good to see last night's RNS with Havas going above 6% - question is how many more have they bought since August 2nd as boonkoh says...

Good coverage here:



"Havas Ups Acquisitions, Doubles Stake In Creston
by Steve McClellan, 9 hours ago

Havas Group, the Paris-based ad holding company, has doubled its stake in London-based marketing and communications services firm Creston Plc, according to a Creston regulatory filing.

On Monday, Creston reported that Havas had acquired over 6% of the company, or a total of more than 3.7 million shares -- up from less than 3%.

Word of the Havas investment drove Creston shares up 8% to $11.87 on Monday, prompting some speculation in the European press that Havas might be preparing to buy a controlling stake in the company.

Creston operates nearly 24 marketing firms providing services in sectors such as market research, branding, advertising, digital and direct marketing, PR and health care communications.

Don Elgie is group CEO of Creston, a post he has held since January 2001. Barrie Brien is both COO and CFO. Brien is the brother of Nick Brien, CEO of Interpublic's McCann World Group.

Creston clients include Diageo, eBay, Guinness and Nissan, among others. The company reported an 11% revenue gain to $117 million for its fiscal year 2012 which ended March 31. Revenue growth slowed in the company's first quarter of fiscal 2013 (ended June 30) however, to just a 1% gain, while "like for like," or organic revenue growth, fell 7%.

Havas has made a number of high-profile acquisitions this year. Last month, the company bought a majority stake in Boondoggle, said to be the largest independent digital agency in Benelux.

In May, Havas bought Creative Lynx, a digital health-care communications company, which is based in the UK.

In April, it bought Ignition, the U.S.-based experiential marketing shop that also has offices in London and Moscow. Earlier the same month, it bought a majority stake in crowdsourcing agency Victors & Spoils, the Boulder, Colo. shop that was founded in 2009 by a trio of former Crispin Porter + Bogusky veterans."