Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[madengland] 08/6/2012 14:48

So what does anyone make of the bizarre bombardment of AT trades, all for 341 shares?

[madengland] 08/6/2012 12:38

Good luck!

[daz] 08/6/2012 12:31

The trading statement in Jan said that PBIT would be just below the previous year and this was re-iterated in the recent announcement, so around 8m.

Current forecasts are for a 3.25p dividend for the year, so that looks comfortable given the cash position.

I have a long term holding, which I've had for a few years, I should have trimmed a few more at the 110/120 level but the shares looked cheap even then.
The recent addition is a trading tranche, which I don't expect to hold for long.

[madengland] 08/6/2012 11:40

Agree Daz, very very cheap. To me it looks like the pre trading update drop was shorting and also the last recent drop of 10p, both successful at loosening a few sells. Time will tell, but like you I tend to accumulate at these levels. All this gloom of pending disaster......a bullish sign? Hard to see why so much cash at close to 0% in the likes of Germany and US is smart money....

Any stab at results? I keep wondering if we will see a divi hike, as we will be cash surplus and ahead of expectations on cash balance.

Are you in for the pre results move of in the hope of a longer up trend to above 80p?

[daz] 08/6/2012 11:33

I've added a few, the shares are very cheap and there is a good change that they will move ahead in anticipation of the results next week.

[edit] The shares have moved on my small buy, which probably indicates there isn't much stock around at the moment

[madengland] 07/6/2012 09:21

Maybe, although interesting pattern trades seen before. Have not checked stock on loan of late. The illiquidity of the shares certainly makes the share price vulnerable, whether to manipulation or as you say nerves. Would not be surprised to see a divi hike, which would underline how good value at this level the shares are. We shall see, ever the optimist. Overall the mood is sooooo gloomy, wonder what it will feel like when the storm starts to clear

[markt] 01/6/2012 10:11

...looks like they are using a pneumatic machine to do the 'shake' !..down 10p from 66p to 56p

(or maybe just a combination of illiquid share and scared stock market these days)

[madengland] 30/5/2012 14:00

An attempt to use market nervouseness to shake out a few before 13/6? Maybe a top up opportunity here. Way undervalued and oversold. buy buy buy

[madengland] 16/5/2012 15:40

Way undervalued boonkoh I agree. Loaded a few more, think we have a load more upside past 70p

[boonkoh] 15/5/2012 21:51

Looking at the graph, Creston is ripe to break to 70p+ over the next week or so, and there's a bit of momentum. Hopefully the 13th June will kick-start that rise into overgear.

[madengland] 15/5/2012 11:32

Also positive comments on digital Riv. Think we may be pleasantly surprised on the 13th June.

[rivaldo] 15/5/2012 10:15

Cello's trading statement this morning bodes well for CRE with this bullish statement about their pharmaceutical division:



"In particular, the Group's pharmaceutical activities continued to perform strongly and the pipeline of work in this area remains very healthy."

The latest forecast just out today from Singer forecasts 11.8p historic EPS, with a 3.3p divi, and 13.2p EPS for the current year, with a 3.5p divi.

[madengland] 14/5/2012 15:02

Looks like a few savvy buys....well covered divi yield, should be strong results....has the rally just begun on this one?

[madengland] 14/5/2012 12:53

Great chance to hop in or top up......

[madengland] 09/5/2012 19:03

Agreed ic2, think the stock is pretty unloved and unwatched. Some shrewd buying by ruffer and hermes for long term. I can see the eps estimates for next year being upped and with zero debt and strong cashflow the progressive divi policy could yield a rise on results I wonder?

[interceptor2] 08/5/2012 17:59

Thanks for the DS article, interesting that he is looking at the 100ma for a major break out.

I think the recent trading update went very much under the radar, the cashflow sounded very positive, which bodes well to results next month imo.

ic2...

[madengland] 08/5/2012 14:51

From DS in FT......


High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [e-mail] to buy additional rights.


Only bears sell in May
By David Schwartz
Is the adage advising us to "sell in May" worth heeding? If so, we should all consider withdrawing from the stock market until St Leger's Day in mid-September.

Happily, the record book suggests we take this advice with a healthy pinch of salt. Midyear investing is not a one-sided tale of doom and gloom. In fact, the odds on making a profit can be quite good at times.

More
Trader's Diary
Bankers have their heads buried in the sand
US inflation provides a profitable clue
Trends, not triggers, cause rally reversals
Hold your breath for US earnings news
First, though, the bad news. Midyear profit trends are even weaker if the end point for this period is extended by a few weeks. Statistically speaking, late September is a poor time to invest. UK shares fell from September 20-25 in 12 of the past 13 years.

This steady pattern of late-September weakness led me to lengthen the May to St Leger's Day period by a few weeks to the end of September. However, even after adding three weeks to this midyear danger zone, the record is not as poor as many investors imagine.

Shares rose in 29 of the past 50 years from May to September, a 58 per cent success rate. What seems to be the determining factor is the presence of a bear market. If one is running in May, the odds of a price decline by the end of September are a whopping 92 per cent. On the other hand, if a bull market is running in May, prices rise three-quarters of the time over the period.

All of which leads to today's £64m question: have we now entered a new bear market?

Obviously, no one knows the answer with 100 per cent certainty. But a useful perspective can be gained merely by ignoring opinions and conjecture and just concentrating on the objective facts.

The economic and political news was horrid in recent weeks. The Dutch government fell and economic problems in Spain worsened. A new French leader with worrying economic policies might be elected. Fresh Euroland banking concerns are returning. Several countries can not meet their austerity pledges. Closer to home, we just slipped into another recession.

Fresh developments of this magnitude can create serious stock market problems. But the FTSE 100 fell just 5 points in April – hardly a sign that investors are hunkering down for a bear market.

There were several large single day drops during this period similar to the one just triggered by Friday's poor US jobs report. Each proved to be a temporary setback.

Turning to my own trading efforts, I was particularly interested in last week's interim management update from Creston (CRE), the public relations and research group.

In January, it surprised investors with news that revenues had slipped below expectations in the final quarter of its financial year. Investors fled in droves.

To my eye, though, the news was not totally bleak. Creston said that the reasons for the shortfall were temporary and that profits would be back on track in the new financial year, which started last month. One problem was within its market research division. Creston claims to have reduced operating costs here to bring them in line with revenues.

As always in the world of investing, it pays to treat such corporate optimism as a hope, not a guarantee. For this reason, I sat back and waited for proof that the company was back on track for further growth.

Last week's trading update suggested that the company was true to its word. Creston confirmed that full-year profits for the year ending March 2012 will be broadly flat against the prior year. It reported no further deterioration in performance since its January report.

I also noticed that several brokers are forecasting profit growth for the current year of about 20 per cent.

Even if I ignore their forecasts, Creston currently appears to be undervalued when compared with other small marketing and media agencies. It has no debt and recently boosted its dividend. This suggests little downside risk in the immediate future.

I have just opened a small position and am watching the price graph like a hawk. Creston's share price is approaching the 100-day moving average which appears to be a significant technical indicator. An advance that decisively penetrates this line has the potential to be followed by very healthy continuation rally. Fingers crossed.

Stock market historian David Schwartz is an active short-term trader writing about his own trades

[rivaldo] 08/5/2012 09:15

Nice rise this morning, and looking interesting chart-wise too.

Still on a P/E of less than 5 based on the recent forecast of 13.2p EPS this year.

[markt] 01/5/2012 19:20

boonkoh 30 Apr'12 - 11:02 - 3306 of 3308
"....Unless there's some nasty one-off charges coming?"

..there are some one off charges.....mentioned in 2nd or 3rd last RNS...

[madengland] 30/4/2012 18:09

Sizeable drop in stock on loan.....how much more will be bought back? 50% upside from here pre June imo

[boonkoh] 30/4/2012 11:02

Not bad results, but why can't they disclose expected EPS or PBIT as well? Unless there's some nasty one-off charges coming?

Good to see the strong cashflow though, as well as not another profit warning. This year should be a good year, although you would have thought if they're excited by the prospects or have lots of business in the pipeline, they would include an optimistic statement in the update today. The omission speaks volumes?

Holding as its great value, but really would like to see a marketing agency market itself better to the investment community and trigger a re-rating upwards!

[madengland] 30/4/2012 09:37

Emailed cre last week requesting that they inc details on divi, cash etc as ly similar trading update was scant. Got a reply also today. Could we see the divi increase?
Some stock maybe borrowed and sold pre this release, probably explains drop markt. Also we have now broken out of a distinct downward channel.
GLA...

Dear Mr xxxxxxx,
 
Thank you for your email.
 
You will note from today's Trading Statement our strong cash position and may recall that we have previously publically stated the Board's intention to pursue a progressive dividend policy.
 
You'll appreciate the final decision concerning the dividend will of course be subject to the finalisation of the Group's financial accounts as well as Board and shareholder approval.
 
Kind regards
 
Investor Relations
 
 
Investor Relations
Creston plc
16 Charles II Street
London  SW1Y 4QU
Direct: + 44 (0)20 7484 7163
Tel: + 44 (0)20 7930 9757
Fax: [phone]
www.creston.com

[rivaldo] 30/4/2012 09:33

The latest forecasts for this year are 13.2p EPS and 14.9p EPS - the latter gives a P/E of just above 4...

With a 6% divi yield:

2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Singer Capital Markets Ltd 27-04-12 BUY 10.30 11.90 3.30 11.70 13.20 3.50
Charles Stanley Securities 22-02-12 BUY 10.20 12.75 3.31 12.70 14.90 3.64