Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[markie7] 02/8/2012 15:53

Ah, Ruffer selling. They still have 9%. Need to find a replacement institution (not easy) - or this price is going nowhere for ages.

[markt] 02/8/2012 14:49

Trades looks very strange to me...

around 500k shares bought....and virtually 100% of them at 69.75p...looking like AT trades...rather than O which is normal market trade I trade
and 40k sold ....and many many sales trades of 40 shares, 20 shares, 25 shares...tiny amounts...

and tiny buy/sell spread...unusually small for CRE imo

massive imbalance between buys and sells yet no move up in the price....which to me would infer I think that there must be a massive sell order being filled which will be reported later...

Is one institution selling out and another buying in....or one institution moving shares from one fund to another or something ??

[dangersimpson2] 02/8/2012 10:35

ex-div dates are always 2 days before the dividend record date - the difference is due to the standard 3 day settlement times for trades:

You are entitled to the dividend if your name is on the register (or your nominee) at close of business on the record date. You are not entitled if your name is added to the register after that date.

Almost all record dates are on a Friday so the 3 day settlement time means that you are entitled to the dividend if you hold the shares at close of business on Tuesday but not entitled if you buy on Wednesday so Wednsebury is the ex-dividend date when the share trades without the right to receive the latest dividend.

Record dates must be business days so declaring Sunday 5th was a mistake and corrected to Friday 3rd by the RNS linked above. Therefore the ex-dividend date was Wednesday 1st.

[barius] 02/8/2012 10:07

I thought the ex-div date was tomorrow, 3rd August? Can anyone clarify please?

[markt] 01/8/2012 15:29

..definitely big volumes for Creston....over 1M today..when on some days the volume can be just 50k.....not small PIs ...interesting...

will 70p area turn out to be a peak...or a resting point on the way up ?!.....have to wait to see...

[rivaldo] 01/8/2012 14:08

Yep, another 1m shares traded today already.

Funk, CRE went ex-div today (with the record date being Friday):



Which actually means the share price is up around 2.5p today.

[funkmasterp12] 01/8/2012 13:16

Still some big buys going through - though don't know if these are shorts closing out or purchases. 500k just gone through, was a 400k yesterday. Apparently now stock goes ex-div on 3rd August ? I thought it was today?

[courant] 01/8/2012 09:46

I sold out of CRE yesterday. Not because I don't think it's cheap (I suspect it's extremely cheap!) but rather because I've become aware that I don't have a handle on the underlying business at all, and this uncertainty represents a considerable source of risk. Further, I've also been looking to reduce the weighting of economically sensitive shares in my portfolio (in favour of those with genuine secular growth stories or strong defensive attributes) and CRE definitely doesn't fall into either of those two categories. In short, if the world economy took a turn for the worse, CRE's revenues would take a hit. How much? (Or maybe not at all, the growth story in the digital area is possibly a good one!) I genuinely don't know, and because I don't know and can't know, I've become uncomfortable holding. Good luck to those still holding, I still suspect there is good profit to be made here!

[markt] 31/7/2012 16:50

Funkmaster
...dont tell anyone...but
for CRE to achieve 1% increase in turnover it has cost 13M-14M pnds. 1/3rd of the current cap. value. Interesting imo !

33% of cap. value spent...and the increase in turnover over the same period is ....1% !. Looks dismal at first glance. (because of reduction of business in UK and layoffs)

It cant keep doing that....not and produce any performance. (but....it also had bad news in the past from Insight so bad Q4 is not the only time)

2-3M for layoffs...and approx. up to 10M pnds to buy Corkery and its turnover.
And turnover is up 1% !
Will the company need to spend another 10M pnds this year to achieve a 1% increase in turnover ?...hopefully not !

..partly explains the low P/E imho

The benefits to turnover and cross selling from previous USA acquisition ? ...I cant see them ! not so far anyway...1% speaks for itself.

Future...we'll just have to wait to see..
----

Broker forecasts.
Those buying shares for clients will issue a nice forecast.
Didnt achieve the forecast last year. Forecast was I think 15p and achieved 8p and 12p excluding some one offs I think. So I wouldnt give it too much credence.

[funkmasterp12] 31/7/2012 16:00

Investec have reiterated their Buy recommendation today, target price 90p.

[rivaldo] 31/7/2012 14:25

The volumes are certainly encouraging, with over 900,000 shares traded and the share price now bouncing a little. Quite impressive.

The forecast 3.7p dividend this year may well be keeping a number of institutional investors interested here. It'll be interesting to see if broker forecasts of around 13.6p EPS are maintained.

[funkmasterp12] 31/7/2012 13:24

Erm, good point.

[markt] 31/7/2012 13:11

Looking "just" at the chart....
I would say that the money would be on a short, but with g-teed stop loss set quite tight.
but how often are charts ever right....

----

Big volume today....
so many sellers..but also many happy to buy...
interesting

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"for the last two years CRE have weighted their earnings and good news into H2"

Uh, except reporting that Q4 was very bad !!

[funkmasterp12] 31/7/2012 13:07

No that's great! I can't help but feel a return to c. 80p/90p on the strength of recent news is a mighty ask, but then again for the last two years CRE have weighted their earnings and good news into H2 and, all things considered, today's volatility isn't as bad as it could have been (and has been).

[funkmasterp12] 31/7/2012 10:49

What's your view on where we go from here markt?

[markt] 31/7/2012 10:09

Like for like growth over last 3 years....taken from the IMS

2010 +11%
2011 +2%
2012. -7 %

total of 6% over 3 years.

2% growth per year..

And a downward trend. One assumes in part due to the economic dip since 2008/2009.

Just 2% !!...not far from 0 !

(but noting that in previous years before 2010 I think the growth was higher, or was it...Insight got nailed in one year for example)

And in return for producing a 2% yearly like-like growth (peanuts imo)...the exec. directors get massive benefits and bonus package. Overpaid imho.

...you could cough imo and CRE could produce some more one off costs like last year that hit the results, 8p EPS produced last year including one off costs. Imo one of the reasons why the shares are on a low P/E rating.

Getting back to the price of 96p when the CEO started the venture 12 years ago in 2000, not gonna happen this week imo.

[madengland] 31/7/2012 08:20

Agreen funkmaster, still under priced, but doubt todays IMS will see the re rating continue short term

[madengland] 31/7/2012 08:16

Sold out my trading stock, shall just sit on SIPP and ISA and await improvements. May be a good chance to top up in the future. GLA

[funkmasterp12] 31/7/2012 08:00

mmm... I can't say I'm supremely confident after reading the IMS. The fall in retained revenues has clearly hit pretty hard - and now is not the right time of year to start losing your bottom line. Also, as I feared, the Insight division is talked about rather flippantly - it feels like it is becoming less and less a focus for the business and the language isn't encouraging at all.

BUT, some good acquisitions and the share to me still feels very under-priced with a strong dividend and a great cash position - and ultimately a 1% growth is better than a red number. And don't forget it's ex-divi tomorrow...

[rivaldo] 31/7/2012 07:52

Mixed trading update, with revenues up 1% in total over last year.

Last year's H1 produced 5.63p EPS, so I'd guess this H1 is on track for anywhere from 5p EPS upwards given the Corkery acquisition and allowing for a slightly slower start to the year. At the current price that's reasonable value equating to 10p EPS or more for the year. The markets may well mark the price down given the slightly downbeat tone, though the outlook statement is rather more upbeat.

[madengland] 30/7/2012 15:05

Was that 400k really a buy or a sell thats been worked through

[madengland] 30/7/2012 13:13

There has been a jump in stock on loan, and there would appear to be plenty of stock for sale as constant buying is not moving the price up. Dummy sells not suggesting mm desperate to take stock of hands either at this time. IMO its more about tomorrow's outlook than anything. Seems quite a bit resistance @72p ish. Good statement tomorrow will see lot buying pre ex divi, but at that point it will move up fast imo.