Creo Medical Share Discussion Threads

[up to the moon and back] 14/5/2024 20:31

I think you will be pleasantly surprised tomorrow , plenty of good news in the pipe line and very positive future partnerships , this one will do very well for sure .

[dr biotech] 14/5/2024 16:43

I’m not expecting anything big either way. Hopefully some positive words about increased traction (ie more confirmed users) some positive clinical progress and ideally a rabbit out of the hat - kamaptive partner or NICE progress etc.

Cash runway is quite narrow but we won’t know whether it’s enough until around 12months from now.

[pacsltd] 14/5/2024 16:20

Nope. I think the opposite actually.

[hatfullofsky] 14/5/2024 15:59

Anybody else thinking a significant drop tomorrow ? We're still loss making and cash will be down ?

[dr biotech] 13/5/2024 17:17

Think it will lose its independence one way or another. Either a success and taken out at a multiple of todays price or sales materialise more slowly and it’s picked up at a more distressed price.

Sales figures are already known, it’s the post period update that will be key. Hopefully a steady increase in users and an update on NICE and clinical progress.

[innnovate] 13/5/2024 10:13

Thanks for the comp 74.

I agree with your analysis.

[74tom] 13/5/2024 09:52

I highly doubt this will be sold anytime in the next 2 years. They'll need to grow core revenues significantly north of £10m in order to prove the business model & make a market cap of £125m+ looks sensible on a price to sales basis.

This was an interesting comp which sold a few weeks ago;

UK based Breast cancer medtech, revenues were £18.3m to 31/12/22, so likely over £20m to end of 2023, putting in on a prospective P/S of 10x

All revenues were from the core tech, unlike Creo where the vast majority is currently from the 2020-21 diagnostic acqusitions where they paid 1x sales. Endomag was also a lot leaner than Creo, with headcount of 90 to end of 22

Interesting to review the results on Wednesday, unsure why today's news couldn't have waited until then - perhaps someone wanted some volume to exit a position? Certainly looks like it based on trading so far.

I'm on the fence as to whether more capital will be needed, what is certain is that they don't have much wiggle room.

[master investor] 13/5/2024 07:34

Positive RNS. Gearing up for the inevitable sale of the company.

[dr biotech] 06/5/2024 11:40

Creo wins the Kings award for Innovation. Another good bit of PR. I was in a 5 person company that won this (was Queens award then) - gave us a small reputational boost, and a visit to a garden party at Buck House to meet HM Queen. Not sure it made a big commercial difference though.

hxxps://businessnewswales.com/welsh-business-success-celebrated-in-the-kings-awards-for-enterprise/

[sinzu] 01/5/2024 15:27

Don’t take any notice of anything porky9 says as he is a bitter and resentful person with a twisted agenda who got burned badly on bio stocks.

I have and many of us have suffered losses in companies in this sector in the past few years, that much is clear.

I’m not going to defend my interest and faith in Creo here as I don’t wish to engage with a total cretin.

[dr biotech] 01/5/2024 09:49

Porky

What “massive contracts” and “massive upfront costs” are you referring to?

Please enlighten me

[master investor] 01/5/2024 08:36

Coming on a board and de ramping a company is quite desperate. Suggesting the share price will drop to 15p is laughable.Come back in a month and we will continue this discussion. I would suggest you do more research.

[porky9] 01/5/2024 06:11

@Master Investor
And you know that because.....

Going out on a limb here, as current 35p share price level holding well but i recon i will still be able to get my 15p buy in target later this year before any uplift comes, they wont get BE without more cash is my call. Lets see if i'm proven wrong.

From my experience investing in other healthcare stocks where they intend to win major NHS and private health sector deals, irrespective of the possible financial advantages from saved time, it will take significantly longer to win these contracts simply because there is a massive upfront cost and training time and cost to change. Not to mention the gestation period to get a deal from creation of tender process to a decision to actually go with it - snail pace progress for these sorts of decisions is understatement of the year.

The albatross around CREOs neck is the cost of sales. The current cash burn to deliver the sales they have is ridiculous. I know they talk about ultimately bringing cash burn down but we are yet to see material proof of that.

Otherwise, bloody good tech that will make a difference, that's why this remains on my watch list but im in no hurry, with a £130m mcap whilst losing over £16m a year on £31m of sales and a dwindling cash reserve its currently more than fully priced imo.

But good luck to the bulls here

[peterrr3] 30/4/2024 18:54

Thanks doc, good find.

[dr biotech] 30/4/2024 16:00

hxxps://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2024/04/30/hope-for-robotics-to-help-diagnose-and-treat-lung-cancer-in-one-procedure/

They do get a mention is this version though..

[dr biotech] 30/4/2024 15:23

hxxps://news.sky.com/story/robotics-could-be-used-to-diagnose-and-remove-lung-cancer-in-patients-in-one-sitting-medics-says-13125645

Results have been "generally positive". I haven't looked into these in too much detail, but I'm guessing that the patients are probably towards the more poorly end of the spectrum. Its good that the first patient seems to be doing well.

Would have been nice if Creo had a mention, but I guess those that are potential customers would be able to find out easily enough.

[master investor] 30/4/2024 14:38

There won't be another raise.

[dr biotech] 30/4/2024 12:59

There is another bit in that proactive interview where the CEO says they received some positive regulatory news. Not sure what that refers too as the don't seem to have RNSd it. I guess they may be saving up some positive but not immediately impactful news for the results.

[hatfullofsky] 30/4/2024 12:29

They certainly pay themselves well

[pacsltd] 28/4/2024 19:11

Dear Porky,

All that money and they still live like pigs.

Q) Who is that then ?
A) Pinky and Perky

Good luck old chap.

[porky9] 28/4/2024 18:22

Wow, I’m guessing you don’t invest in many stocks these days?

What BODs don’t say is often more important that what they do say.

The last set of figures released did NOT indicate to me that there was some sort of guarantee here. It is an estimation, plain and simple. I’m not suggesting Directors are trying to mislead but, please don’t take what they say as gospel. Business is Business, from my own analysis I believe they will need more capital to reach BE, I can’t see how it’s possible based on the last set of figures, that’s my opinion, you are obviously entitled to disagree with me that’s the whole point of these discussion boards.

Good luck with your investment anyhow, you might prove me wrong as I say, I personally just don’t see it.

[pacsltd] 28/4/2024 17:52

Porky, CREO had a raise just over a year ago. So do you think the directors told porkies (excuse the pun) when they suggested at the time:-

"The Company is pursuing the Fundraising in order to raise sufficient funds to maintain momentum in the business building on the success of 2022 and the milestones that it has achieved since IPO.
The Fundraising is intended to enable the Company to progress into the next stage of the development and commercialisation of its minimally invasive electrosurgical devices, and the Directors expect that the Fundraising will provide the Company with a pathway to being cash flow break even and, ultimately, to profitability as well as give comfort to existing customers, suppliers and partners of increased balance sheet strength.
...
The Group continues to progress towards profitability with revenues continuing to grow and the intensive investment product development and launch phase coming to an end. Material reductions in operating costs have contributed to a reduced underlying EBITDA loss for FY22 compared to FY21, which is expected to be in-line with market expectations. Management considers that this combination of strong core product revenue growth and active cost control means that the business is well-positioned to further reduce cash burn in FY23 and remains on track for EBITDA break even during FY25, also in-line with market expectations."

So is Porky suggesting that CREO directors got it wrong or misled the institution and private investors a year ago? Just saying.

[porky9] 28/4/2024 16:59

I don’t need to understand this specific technology to read a P & L and establish the odds of CREO making BE before the cash runway is out.

My view is it will be so dam close they will be running on fumes even if they hit the growth expectations and that’s simply because the cost base is obscene frankly. The cost of sales far too high. Hence, they would be better off to raise before things get desperate. Most businesses in that position will raise IMO.

IF the next raise demonstrates that it will be enough to get into profits I will take a position then. As it stands I’m in no rush to buy at this level as I put the odds of a dilutive raise at 99% odds on.

Hope I’m proven wrong but I doubt it

[dr biotech] 28/4/2024 16:36

Please take Creo off your watchlist porky.

As you have previously made clear, you don't understand the tech nor the opportunity. Why its on your watchlist at all is a mystery.

I think finances could get close - next 6-18 months will be key - but think the opportunity is much, much larger. How much better would endoscopic lung surgery be rather than opening up the chest? This weeks PR about the cost savings involved vs previous treatments has already shown the far superior clinical pathway.

The CEO said last years momentum has continued into this year. It will be interesting to see what level that is - keeping in line with broker forecasts would be decent.

[pacsltd] 28/4/2024 13:03

You are going to have a long wait as it will never be 20p again. There are strong indications that they easily have enough cash to get to profit and will not need another placing.