Creo Medical Share Discussion Threads

[dr biotech] 27/5/2024 22:35

Nice find. Lets hope she stays cancer free and that its repeated with the other patients.

[someuwin] 27/5/2024 21:25

Good story about CREO in the Daily Mail.

"A 7cm tumour made my lung collapse and was too near my heart to operate. But I'm now cancer-free thanks to an incredible new robot treatment."



The original is behind a paywall, But you can read it here thanks to Google's cache...

[innnovate] 22/5/2024 18:57

This posted today from another board:

Shares in Creo Medical Group PLC (AIM:CREO), a company specialising in surgical endoscopy and advanced energy licensing, are rated by Deutsche Bank as 'buy' up to 80p.

In a short update in the wake of full-year results, the German outfit flagged as its key highlight the approval and launch of the Speedboat UltraSlim, which improves compatibility with a broader range of endoscopes. This development is expected to enhance the company's market position and drive future growth.

According to DB, the numbers were all in line with expectations. Sales grew by 13% to £30.8 million, while core technology revenues, including the Speedboat device, increased significantly from £0.9 million in FY22 to £2.3 million in FY23. Combined licensing and core technology sales amounted to £4 million. Consumables sales grew by 8% to £26.8 million. Creo Medical ended the year with a net cash position of £18.5 million.

In afternoon trading the stock was up 1.3% at 36.98p.

[nchanning] 22/5/2024 10:04

Love the business would like to be involved but can't touch anything on AIM that needs cash soon at the moment .

[bloomberg2] 20/5/2024 13:11

https://www.edisongroup.com/research/setting-the-stage-for-pivotal-growth/33606/

[dr biotech] 17/5/2024 16:05

They did also suggest other forms of non dilutive cash raising that may be possible in the next few months. Anything that could lengthen the cash runway by several months and these should pop.

I would say I didn't like the wording in the RNS - "14% above last years average" - would much rather they just quoted numbers, even if unaudited.

I'm expecting a linear rise in sales, not exponential. Would of course accept the latter

[innnovate] 17/5/2024 15:14

The recent webinar update by the CEO provided a surprisingly granular insight into the existing and projected user base growth and sales forecast to 2027. I appreciate the transparency.

If you are convinced by the projections, there could be a 2x-4x return possible here in the next 3 years. Personally, given the dominant role of 'Core' product in driving aggregate sales increases over time, I think the sales curve will be less impressive. Not because I doubt the tech or health economic metrics, but because adoption of the new is always a challenge in complex and unwieldy healthcare organizations. If the company does need to come to the market for cash (and it's looking like a close call), there will likely be a significantly better entry point. And there lies the conundrum.

[nimbo10] 17/5/2024 14:43

When I said recover pretty soon, wasn't expecting like next day. Very much welcomed, I think Inst's are happy with the results and are most likely behind this recovery.

[bloomberg2] 17/5/2024 11:54

Quality Kicking in

[hatfullofsky] 17/5/2024 07:36

DrB

Core sales up 14% this is the low base but higher margin revenue (around 11% of total revenue)

Creo core product sales and Kamaptive licensing income in the period of £4.0m (FY22: £2.3m),

Total sales in the period of £30.8m (FY22: £27.2m)

[nimbo10] 16/5/2024 14:38

Well, did feel bit of an over reaction yesterday after meeting trading update guidance. Hopefully lost ground is recovered pretty soon. This company has some pedigree with top trust worthy management, not like many others who pass begging bowl on regular basis with continued valuation destruction over many years. Well run companies do pull through with time and I can wait for that.

[dr biotech] 16/5/2024 09:42

There is some interesting stuff discussed in the investor meet yesterday - if you only have a few mins the Q&A bit was good - not least because half the Qs were mine.

Alternative sources of funding could include licensing deals - implies there may be progress on these over the next few month. Also may be some milestones achieved with the robotics partners

No real update from NICE or the Lung tumour trial - just have to wait for those. Initial lung trial goal is "do no harm" so bar is quite low.

I think the core sales that are up 14% is the total Creo product sales - seems a bit interchangeable what core means - Creo Branded, or just the recent Creo developed.

Thought Craig seemed quite confident, he talks well as he should for what he's paid

[hatfullofsky] 15/5/2024 11:20

Well the CEO gets GBP 500k pa to start with !!!

[mikeh30] 15/5/2024 11:16

What in the explicable cash burn is going on here

[peterrr3] 15/5/2024 11:00

Sky NICE haven't got a scheduled start for this and their latest general update for jobs just starting give a turnaround of Feb25, so it won't be before that.

[hatfullofsky] 15/5/2024 10:45

Dr B, I agree and I'm also very disappointed in the lack of NICE progress or updates. NICE was mention only 2 times in the results. For such a pivotal item thats very disappointing.

[peterrr3] 15/5/2024 10:31

Thanks all for good analysis from both sides. For me the accounts were as expected and a further capital top up was on the cards unless forward sales were good. I have only a very small holding and that is because when I checked the patents for any updates there was some unfavourable comments on a number of newer applications, dealing with in situ biopsy analysis and even some of the mechanics. That doesn't mean that speedboat is not robust, just some of the planned bolt-ons won't cut it for IP ownership. Maybe not enough to warrant an RNS, but I'll only add if they show some genuine sales momentum.

[dr biotech] 15/5/2024 10:16

6m procedures, the kit is about 850 per op where it’s used.

I’m a bit disappointed at the lack of growth, but will hold for a while.

[hatfullofsky] 15/5/2024 10:04

Ok Booty, I see where you're at.

One final piece of information you may need is their current SAM (service addressable Market) which currently stands at $100m, for a £124m company that's not big enough.

All figures I have quoted are from the Company reports (not my opinion)



Page 23

Resection $1.1bn TAM, SOM $100m US and EMEA within 5-7yrs, lower GI only
Ablation $1bn TAM within 8 years
Robotics 20m procedures TAM, SOM 6m procedures

[bootycall] 15/5/2024 09:47

@hatfullofsky

Cards on the table…I am relatively new to this stock…but i learn extremely fast. The case studies shown make adoption of this tech a no brainer. Zero perforations in colonoscopy sounds like a gold standard to me…being able to perform three procedures in one sitting isn’t bad either. Quoting market adoption rates when the product was a proof of concept awaiting approval isn’t particularly wise. The incentive to train up on the system, is I suggest, more motivating when you know it is fully approved and covers a broader range of surgical procedures. Similarly, now the product has been reduced to a standardised size, the case for use is even more compelling. I prefer to listen to the experts commentary. I know they are soundbites but they are the key opinion leaders who will drive adoption…or not. Your stats are from 2021…we need to be working off current rates to build an accurate model. My understanding is that they wanted to train up surgical heads who would then train those under them. How they expand the trained base of surgeons is going to be crucial. Thank you for sharing your knowledge …it helps me understand the bear argument better.

[bootycall] 15/5/2024 09:32

@74tom “another cash runway issue” !
What do you expect ? How have the best performing shares in the US grown ? By cutting capex or by having a group of investors that understand tech adoption and fund cash shortfalls or rising valuations. This country will not have any meaningful tech companies if we seek to cease innovation just because the regulator was a quarter behind on approval. Having said that i appreciate your attention to detail but rather than fearful speculation, I would prefer to look at revised cash flow forecast and a sober analysis of the position. All too often a Company can be 6 months behind in forward sales guidance and some clown wants to cut the valuation in half.
Regarding global sales operations, I have far more sympathy with your arguments. The best margins are always in the USA and using established players in other geographies is a credible strategy for a company of Creos size. Re the management, it is obvious from the new Board appointments that commercial experience is being sought.

In the last 15 years Intuitive Surgical has had 14 quarters where it reported negative quarterly sales (mainly 2013/4, 2020 and 2022)..all is not lost :)

[hatfullofsky] 15/5/2024 09:22

Booty - Product excellence is no guarantee of commercial success. I absolutely believe in the product and it's effect on patients outcomes which is fantastic but that aside, you have to really look into the financials, past present and future.

Comment from 07/01/24 on the FY23 Trading Update

December 2023 was a record month for orders and shipments following the launch of Speedboat® UltraSlim, This momentum has carried through into 2024 and the Company is managing manufacturing capacity appropriately to take account of the increase in demand.

-- This was simply not true

User base has doubled over a year but is still very small

31/12/23 175 Users
30/06/23 115 Users
31/12/22 80 Users

27/11/23 Capital Markets Day

At least 50 referrals a year are needed per doctor to maintain the relevant skills.

And this is the kicker - Not all early users are converted to normal or high users. The conversion rate from normal to high users was around 7% in 2021 according to Creo. As noted, we now expect the highest users to be in specialist centres.


Early 1 procedure per month $11k pa
Normal 1 procedure per week $45k pa
High 2 procedures per week $90k pa

[bootycall] 15/5/2024 08:30

@hatfullofsky
You need to look at the training programme as a forward sales indicator ,which clearly shows the number of people being trained to use the technology building substantially . These results are to the y/e Dec. It is pretty obvious that 2024 is the year of ramp up and there will still be a cash shortfall… every shareholder knows that. The case studies are so compelling the success of this company, is in my opinion assured. Whether they need a further capital raise for £10-12m or do a strategic partnership, prospects look phenomenal.
I think your observations would be more helpful if you carefully modelled the next two years of sales. You are just looking in the rear view mirror. Strategically I foresee a bun fight over this Company with Intuitive and others understanding the IP moat, diversity of applications and lead time to approval for competing products. One strategic deal might fill any funding gap.