Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[investali] 08/5/2013 17:02

Thankyou cashflo. I'm feeling a little let down by the lack of movement after that broker note and even the lack of interest. Maybe i'm having a bad day!

Very reassured that you and Sir Leonardo are on board :>)

Ali.

[cashflo] 08/5/2013 08:29

investial no I am not leonardo, im an expert investor who has diversified into some smaller companies.

And I am on board craw which must be reassuring to say the least!!

[sir leonardo] 08/5/2013 00:00

WELL WELL WELLL!!!!!

JUST HAVING DE TIPPLE OR TWO AND GOT TO RESEARCH DIS BROKER NOTE!!!!!!!!FFS

DIS 55P TARGET IS A HARD TASK GIVEN WE TRADE AT 4 NOW!!!!!!FFS

[sir leonardo] 07/5/2013 23:58

WELL WELL WELL!!!!!!!!!!!


CASHFLOW HAS NEVER BEEN A PROBLEM FOR SIR ARCHIBALD LEONARDO KNOGEL!!!!!!!

SIR WOULD NOT NORMALLY REPEAT FFS THREE TIMES BUT FOR MY OLDE PAL! FFS FFS FFS !!

[sir leonardo] 07/5/2013 23:56

WELL I NEVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cestnous] 07/5/2013 08:52

Craw must be delighted to have an idiot like you as a supporter. Filtered

[chrisis33] 06/5/2013 22:44

Ali, everything's coming together here IMO. Debt being repaid, LFL sales up. Progressive dividend, margins improving, costs being reduced.

The bottom chart here illustrates the rate of debt reduction over the past few years. FY2013 results yet to be included.

[knigel] 06/5/2013 22:06

Unlikely as the post was not in capital letters or included FFS at least three times... lol

[investali] 06/5/2013 21:58

Cashflo are you Sir Leonardo or is this the content of your words of wisdom?


Ali.

[investali] 06/5/2013 21:56

What a surprise for a bank holiday, 5.5p will do nicely for the time being. Thanks for all your input chrisis33 these are becoming ever increasingly cheaper and with that high yield that smashes most banks.

I will be buying back once i get to grips with my IGR woes. I can see 10p in a year or two if progress continues at the current rate, how exciting has boring old Crawshaws become?? Hey a tick up in the morning would be a perfect start to the trading week.


Ali.

[chrisis33] 06/5/2013 21:04

Forward yield 6.1%, which is very good IMO.

Just considering that Crawshaws are forecast to achieve record revenues this financial year, despite a scaling back of its wholesale operation, closure of the Doncaster market site and discontinuation of the mobile unit. This is likely due to previous new store openings continuing to gain traction IMO.

[cashflo] 06/5/2013 19:47

so the yield is 80% which is quite good

[chrisis33] 06/5/2013 14:42

I'd imagine that forecasts have erred on the conservative. It's good to see the (frankly ridiculous) 3p target price revised to reflect the improvement in trading, gross margins etc.

Should trade up to 5p+ from here. Good BBQ summer weather could provide a further boost to trading.

Still currently at a discount to a growing tangible Net Asset Value.

Edit to add: currently trading on a forward PE of 5.8x against the current forecast expectation

[knigel] 06/5/2013 14:08

Cheers - obvious the shares still offer great value and now decent returns for shareholders. Great weather for eating outside too...

[chrisis33] 06/5/2013 14:00

Think the websites carrying the forecasts have been updated ... I've updated above to .25p

[knigel] 06/5/2013 13:53

On a bank holiday Monday? BTW the dividend s/b 0.25p not 2.5p otherwise the income trusts would be lapping this up!

[chrisis33] 05/5/2013 11:25

Annual report will be online on Thursday.

[chrisis33] 03/5/2013 21:05

Thought I'd share thoughts in relation to the questions I posted before the results. We'll hopefully get clarity at the AGM on the unknowns.

-------------------

I'm hoping to see £18.7m+ turnover (SURPASSED), and pbt of £180K or more (SURPASSED).


1- what is the impact of the change to process from the pasty tax on admin costs or gross margin?
A: well managed by the looks of things. Admin costs down, and gross margin up since the half year.

2- what impact (if any) has the horsemeat scandal had on revenues and margins (ref outlook statement).
A: Unclear what impact the scandal has had specifically, but margins up and LFL sales up for first 12 weeks of the current financial year. I'd really like to have known what % increase we've seen in LFL sales thus far.

3- does there appear to be a continuation of the underlying growth trend in like for like sales? (putting horsegate aside). The results to end January should provide just the picture we need.
A: The pasty tax changes impacted sales of some hot food lines, especially initially. Although given this impact, overall LFLs for H2 indicate a 2% LFL sales growth in H2, and with improving margins from 43.6% at the half year to 43.7% for the full year.

4- can we deduce whether sales growth at the newer stores is stronger than the older stores? I.e are they continuing to gain traction in their communities?
A: No evidence.

5- how successful is the hot takeaway food offer? Are we seeing progress? How does this compare with fresh sales?
A: Pasty tax had an impact, but looks to have been pretty well managed by the business in the circumstances.

6- Has the broadening of the product range been a success?
A: No specific evidence

7- What was the impact of the snowy weather? (ref outlook statement)
A: No evidence, although LFLs up for the first 12 weeks, despite the weather.

8- Are we in a net cash position?
A: at end January ... yes, just. Will be greater now of course.

9- to what extent can we extrapolate from like-for-like sales post January to infer current performance and likely half year results?
A: We can't (yet) ... as we're yet to hear how much LFL sales have improved in the first 12 weeks.

10- is the business generating sufficient cash-flow to fund new stores? (and a future dividend?)
A: Future dividend? We've got one now pending AGM approval. Delighted. It's current unclear whether the business is generating funds sufficient to fund expansion, but positive to hear that LFLs are up, margins up, and costs improved. Given what we know, I'm very hopeful for future growth.

11- what's the tangible NAV at year end? Does it continue to increase?
A: Yes. 5p per share equivalent once you strip out DTL.

12- any news regarding remortgaging of the existing asset-backed loans of £840k?
A: Yes. 300KGBP to be paid off soon, leaving 540K GBP remortgaged over 3 years.

[chrisis33] 02/5/2013 23:13

Thanks Playful. Missed the Greggs programme unfortunately.
Cheers for the info, appreciated as always and good to see how positive you are. Board certainly seem to have a healthy focus on what's best for shareholders.

[knigel] 02/5/2013 22:30

Greggs have over-expanded in some areas and people have got bored of eating the same menu day in day out imo

[playful] 02/5/2013 22:26

The broker note should be published shortly. I have every confidence our business will continue to grow and become a terrific company for investors looking for good steady dividends, which is why selling never appeals to me.

We have been promised that our annual report is going to made available on the website this coming Monday, but I'd have hoped to have seen the results already published on there by now.

Did anyone see the Greggs documentary on Sky this evening? They were expecting their customers to eat within the store café without plates, unbelievable!

[chrisis33] 02/5/2013 20:01

Last illustrative possible sum:

Revenue at £19.5m (up just under 4%)
Gross margin up from 43.7% to 44%
admin costs down 1% at: £7.9m
Profit before tax: 600k
@ PE: 8 (below sector average)
Market cap: £4.8m
SP: 8.3p (double current SP)

Does anyone have any idea when we might see a new broker forecast?
As mentioned, presumably more detail on current trading with the AGM statement towards the end of next month.

[chrisis33] 02/5/2013 15:03

Agree Battlebus that £1m in profit could be within touching distance - all depends on how much like for like sales are ahead. Shame we're none the wiser. But 5% would (IMO) take the share price back to 8P+.

Cashflow is king here, and in 3 years Crawshaws have generated enough to pay back £900K in debt, reduce trade payables, fit out the Derby and store and restaurant for £500K, and increase cash balance. That's a very creditable performance IMO, with a dividend payment to come and £300K further off the mortgage from June things must be looking very good for share price + returns appreciation going forwards.