Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[chrisis33] 26/4/2013 21:35

Agree these are tightly held. 80% or so accounted for here:
 
Significant Shareholders  @ 18th February 2013


Plus around 10% (or more) as I understand it held outside of those above holding 3%+ by holders who post on this board.

[battlebus2] 26/4/2013 21:11

From what we know the shares have been marked down from 4.25 mid to 3.75 mid basically on Investali selling.

[battlebus2] 26/4/2013 21:09

I can't see much selling if the results are good or bad or indifferent as the main block of holders will be holding as given time the prospects for a higher rating should it be two to three years down the line is certainly on the cards. If none of the six holders who post on here hold them tight at best i can't see more than a few 100k in free float, on the other hand if the outlook reads well we could see a sharp rise on the back of a couple of 100k trades. 7 sharp on Monday then :))

[chrisis33] 26/4/2013 20:54

The difference with STY is the uncertainty the pref shares bring. Whilst the results looked ok at best, they weren't the strong set of numbers that inspire confidence that the redemption schedule can be comfortably met.

The difference as I see it here is that CRAW have cleared all their debt with the exception of mortgages, and the company appears to be in the verge of a net cash position. No nasties like warrants, pref shares etc to be concerned with. It's one of the things I took account of when investing.

[knigel] 26/4/2013 20:42

As long as the share price doesn't react poorly to decent results (like STY yesterday) then next week should be good... I can't see much selling initially and hopefully more buying and some new investors... gla

[chrisis33] 26/4/2013 20:35

This news bodes well ...

[chrisis33] 26/4/2013 20:13

Thanks sir Leo. Best of luck for Monday everybody.

[battlebus2] 26/4/2013 17:18

Ditto Ali.

[investali] 26/4/2013 16:59

Hi everyone fingers crossed for Monday, i hope i don't live to regret this :>((

Ali.

[chrisis33] 26/4/2013 15:43

200K or so buys so far today ...

[battlebus2] 26/4/2013 14:32

Your back Sir leo i thought you had moved on to deramp something else lol. Good to see you confident enough to buy have you any thoughts on the results?

[sir leonardo] 26/4/2013 14:20

WELL WELL WELL!!!!!

MY OLDE PAL KNOGEL SIR HAS BEEN BUYING TODAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FFS

I SEE SOME OF DE MUG PUNTERS SELLING UP BUT SIR ARCHIBALD KEEPS BUYING!!!!FFS

WISHING YOU ALL BRAVE FORTUNE ON DE MONDAY!!!!

[knigel] 26/4/2013 14:17

24k and 12k were mine

[battlebus2] 26/4/2013 14:00

And still more small buys, can't be the same person can it??

[chrisis33] 26/4/2013 13:30

Just noticed that Battlebus ... stream of smaller buys through.

[battlebus2] 26/4/2013 13:21

A few more nibbling after their lunch.

[chrisis33] 26/4/2013 11:02

Not so sure about that Knigel, still off-radar or non-considered by the vast majority - but hopefully results may help in that respect.

[knigel] 26/4/2013 09:58

Added as expecting more buying later

[chrisis33] 26/4/2013 09:56

Some of the shares that were shaken free being taken up this morning

[chrisis33] 25/4/2013 21:46

Cash position will be the first thing I look for on Monday. Still reassured that the FD purchased a decent slug of shares in November.

[battlebus2] 25/4/2013 21:06

Yes 19 million does exceed forecast but given the increase in LFL sales and what i saw of the excellent Christmas trading it's not that far north of the broker note at 18.87. Can't wait for the answers to those dozen questions of yours chrisis33.

[chrisis33] 25/4/2013 20:53

£19m turnover would exceed forecasts, and equate to £9.7m for h2. This would be an excellent performance IMO. I'm hoping to see £18.7m+ turnover, and pbt of £180K or more.

These results come at a key time. So what are the important questions that we should be able to answer from interpreting the results and outlook statement?

1- what is the impact of the change to process from the pasty tax on admin costs or gross margin?

2- what impact (if any) has the horsemeat scandal had on revenues and margins (ref outlook statement).

3- does there appear to be a continuation of the underlying growth trend in like for like sales? (putting horsegate aside). The results to end January should provide just the picture we need.

4- can we deduce whether sales growth at the newer stores is stronger than the older stores? I.e are they continuing to gain traction in their communities?

5- how successful is the hot takeaway food offer? Are we seeing progress? How does this compare with fresh sales?

6- Has the broadening of the product range been a success?

7- What was the impact of the snowy weather? (ref outlook statement)

8- Are we in a net cash position?

9- to what extent can we extrapolate from like-for-like sales post January to infer current performance and likely half year results?

10- is the business generating sufficient cash-flow to fund new stores? (and a future dividend?)

11- what's the tangible NAV at year end? Does it continue to increase?

12- any news regarding remortgaging of the existing asset-backed loans of £840k?

[battlebus2] 25/4/2013 17:56

Sure beats me waffling to keep the board alive :))

If we can turn for the year a 200k profit i will be very pleased though anything short of 100k would be an underperformance imv if we can maintain a turnover of 19 million.