Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[cashflo] 29/4/2013 21:11

sir leon, it's cashflo not cashflow, I have no "w" at the rear. Far better like that don't you think? yes I'm sure you agree.

I have been too busy to make astute comments as of yet, I have only been a holder for far less than 24 hours!

I have logged in and checked my other profitable small cap holdings and all appears to be in order.

[battlebus2] 29/4/2013 21:11

It all sounds plausible Knigel but then again ask yourself why so many shops are empty. Certainly worth a look if the right one comes along and if we are in a very positive cash position.

[chrisis33] 29/4/2013 21:07

Hey BrianGeeee

Crawshaws have repaid 0.9m GBP in debt over 3 years, and opened a new store in Derby at a cost of 0.5m GBP. The outlook confirms improving LFL sales and improving margins. I see no problem with a return to new store openings from next year should they wish to go this route? Or simply continue to build a cash position.

Not sure why they'd open non-butchers shops? It's their area of expertise, and the business would benefit from further scale and retained focus - rather than distraction. Or I suppose one could give an argument for diversification?

Crawshaws should see a new breed of investor now that it offers a decent dividend yield. They could potentially look for a selected value-enhancing equity funded acquisition provided it makes sense for shareholders. Plenty of options around with the amount of cash that hits the bottom line IMO.

[knigel] 29/4/2013 21:00

battlebus2, you say this but there are so many vacant premises now in the high street that landlords will probably offer really good rental terms in this environment. You could argue there has never been a better time to gain a foothold in new terrority - however it is risky and the company would need to do some research first if it did consider expansion in a new area..

[battlebus2] 29/4/2013 20:58

I agree Briangee too soon to be opening new butchers stores in todays retail climate.
We need to strengthen the ship a bit further yet.

[knigel] 29/4/2013 20:57

Has Crawshaw considered a tie-up with another chain to offer their meat products within ie. supermarket stores or open/in-door markets. How about improving on-line and/or offering home delivery? How about posting leaflets within 3-4 miles of each store to advertise (this may be done already as I live in the south west). My point is that opening more stores is only one way of expanding or increasing revenue...

[knigel] 29/4/2013 20:54

Sir Leonardo, how many bottles of sherry will you be able to buy with your dividend?

[briangeeee] 29/4/2013 20:50

chrisis33, you make the point about being strongly cash generative, but you also say you'd like the roll-out of new shops to re-start.

Well the business is currently strongly cash generative exactly because it's stopped its roll-out, as amortisation isn't matched or exceeded by capex. That's how I expect it to continue for some time, with a continuing push to improve margins from the existing assets. That should be matched by an increasing dividend.

If new shops are to be opened in the future, apart from perhaps an exceptional opportunity, I wouldn't necessarily expect them to be butchers.

[sir leonardo] 29/4/2013 20:47

SIR CAN SEE A NEW STORE OPENING EVERY YEAR FROM 2014!!!!!!!!!

[sir leonardo] 29/4/2013 20:42

WELL WELL WELL!!!!!

CASHFLOW IM WAITING FOR ONE OF YOUR ASTUTE COMMENTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FFS

SIR ARCHIBALD WILL BE ATTENDING THE AGM.

[battlebus2] 29/4/2013 20:29

Thanks for your insight Chrisis33. With the mortgage gone in three years the cash will have to go somewhere, always a great position to be in.

[cashflo] 29/4/2013 19:59

I bought a decent amount obviously with 11 trades on the book I cannot specify which ones. This is one of those interesting shares that doesn't apppear to be floating on a translucent farty wisp like so many of these.

I am now a long term holder and shall be making astute comments from time to time. This is the type of small cap I'm looking to hold for at least 5 years.

regards

cashflo


.....................................................................

[chrisis33] 29/4/2013 19:42

No real pearls of insight here, as the results speak for themselves ... but some thoughts to share.

* Given that LFL sales for H1 were up 4% and the full year turn out was 3%, we can conclude that LFL sales across H2 were up by perhaps 1.5% or so. This includes LFLs for the first 8 weeks that were up by 7%, so perhaps slightly positive LFLs for the remainder of H2 post the pasty tax introduction.

* Encouragingly, the business appears to have remained strongly cash generative in H2, and LFL sales for the first 12 weeks of the current financial year are up (albeit we don't yet know by how much). "Like for like sales are ahead and we are particularly pleased with the further increases in gross margin and improvements in cost we are achieving."

* Given the disruption of introducing new food preparation processes in response to the pasty tax, it's positive that H2 pbt exceeded H1. Also note it's referred to as "particularly initially", suggesting that management and staff adapted to the changes and things improved since.

* Crawshaws have shed some staff in 2013. This could be in relation to the restructuring mentioned in the half year results, but also possibly the sale of the Doncaster market site and discontinuation of the mobile unit?

* The board is confident enough to pay 115.6K GBP out as a dividend, despite agreeing repayment of 300K GBP in June on the mortgage. This suggests that cash generation has continued to be strong so far in the new financial year ... and that it is forecast to remain so. This is the biggest news today, and smacks of confidence in current trading and outlook.

*The remaining mortgage being repayable at 180K GBP per year so good to see this will be cleared quickly, restricting the amount of interest payable
.

* EBITDA for H2 c. 356K GBP

* At the full year, CRAW were marginally in a net cash position, with cash exceeding total mortgage debt. This position should continue to strengthen. We're 3 months on now from the time of the results, and I suspect Crawshaws cash position is nearing the 1 million GBP mark.

* Tangible NET asset value is now 2.6m GBP including deferred tax liability, and 3.05m GBP without. So CRAW trades at a discount to a tangible NAV that has trended consistently higher YOY.

* Gross margin improved from H1 (43.6%) through to a full year margin of 43.7%

* The retail climate is now described simply as "challenging" rather than "particularly challenging" in the outlook - suggesting some improvement?

On a personal note, I'd like to see a resumption to new store openings by next year.

Looking forward to seeing a new broker forecast.

[knigel] 29/4/2013 19:05

Chrisis33, I await your calculations with interest and had an quick look myself.
Half year margin was 43.6% and full year 43.7%. Half year LFL +4% and full year +3% so appears the snow had some impact in the second half.
For the current year if margins increased to 44% this should add £55k to gross margins. Interest charges should be £7k less (2.25% on £300k mortgage reduction). After deducting corporation tax I reckon net profits could increase by £48k increasing eps by 0.085p to 0.39p. This could be conservative figures and it is possible the share price is now on a forward single digit PE and a forward yield of 6%. I definitely feel the shares are a buy up to 5p and a hold at least to 6p. GLA

[playful] 29/4/2013 18:34

I will certainly be attending

[chrisis33] 29/4/2013 18:32

Will spend a while tonight dissecting the results and post some thoughts later ... be glad for the views of others. Still pleasantly surprised that we're due a dividend.

I would have liked to see a little more by way of outlook, but my suspicion is that the board are holding back a little here so they're able to publish a trading update or more information as part of an AGM statement. Very encouraged by the performance in H2. Well done again Crawshaws.

[battlebus2] 29/4/2013 17:58

Probably Sir Leo in disguise again. Unfortunately i won't be able to attend as i'm away for a few days with Mrs Battle for our wedding anniversary and don't return until the 25th.

[briangeeee] 29/4/2013 17:28

One man's hay shed is another man's play shed!

BTW, in answer to your earlier Q, I'll very likely be attending the AGM.

[davidosh] 29/4/2013 17:10

cashflo....Can you quantify shedloads ? They do not appear to be showing as someone else told me they bought 150k today !

[cashflo] 29/4/2013 15:42

Bought a shed load of these today probably the rise is due to my buying I would have thought.

[chrisis33] 29/4/2013 14:35

Sells getting hoovered up I see. :)

[playful] 29/4/2013 13:55

You make a very good point David, I was wondering the very same thing and will be seeking an explanation

[knigel] 29/4/2013 13:43

Who sold 50k? Possible director buys likely soon.. not the best time to sell?

[chrisis33] 29/4/2013 13:36

Hi Davidosh,

I'm going to try to make the AGM, although sometimes work commitments take over.
No idea regarding the publishing of holdings ... maybe an oversight?