Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[penciles2] 19/9/2016 17:40

I reckon a rights issue at 20p with interims that s if the price doesn't tank again.butchers concept has never worked I can give you a long list of failure's

[castleford tiger] 19/9/2016 17:22

this could go all the way to nil.
in my opinion.

tiger

[martinthebrave] 19/9/2016 17:21

Nothing like buying when the vast majority are selling. Loads of assets to underpin this company and I suspect they will succeed eventually. Anyway I am in at a tad under 36p. By the way, I wouldn't knock David Dosh, he is the guy who bought these at 4p - respect!!

[evil_doctor_facilier] 19/9/2016 15:31

No emoji in your post today Skinny?
Allow me....

[shanklin] 19/9/2016 10:55

OK, thank you. I sold the shares I had rather painfully on the morning of the RNS. The main issue for me is whether the company will be able to continue the roll-out in the longer term without raising more cash. If they can, then the current share price could prove to be a bargain.

I do not intend to consider re-opening a position until we see the results on the 29th and have a better handle on recent performance and the validity of the stated strategy.

It was most unfortunate that CRAW had to issue an unplanned, and perhaps not so well written, RNS after the share price drop last Wednesday.

[evil_doctor_facilier] 19/9/2016 10:41

Interesting, also looking at the figures and this is my opinion only.
The problems and slow down in sales seem to run parallel with the management changes and the subsequent implementation of their strategy of moving away from discounting and trying to prove up margin!!

Surely if they are now going to start discounting again (Rns Fridays ) to regain the sales that have been lost, that by definition is somewhat of an admission of a problematic strategy in the first place?
One year after a business plan of pushing margins up and eroding discount, they go back to guess what ?
Somebody should take responsibility for this and the sales falls.


Again aimho.

[evil_doctor_facilier] 19/9/2016 10:32

I will posts a full summary hopefully later this evening Shanklin.

[shanklin] 19/9/2016 10:31

E_d_f

It would be interesting to see the assumptions you have made and the calculations themselves.

Cheers, Martin

[evil_doctor_facilier] 19/9/2016 10:25

i was looking in depth at the finals over the weekend. My initial findings are summarised below, i will provide a fuller explanation when i have time to posts it.


Administration costs are high and when you strip out revenue from new store sales, the net profit margin on legacy stores is not impressive.
I believe on my calculations that net % bottom line margin after all costs is very low and any sales/ margin fall could potentially make some stores loss making.

Cash position of 4.8 million is almost certainly being eradicated quickly in any slowing down in sales. This brings into question the ability to complete the planned roll out without further funding.
The more skeptical among you may read the company announcement that they are looking at the planned roll out as connected with (any?) depleting cash position!

Without a improvement in LFL sales and /or margin from legacy stores it looks almost certain that new cash will be needed.(For the already planned expansion))

The intangible assets are very high, take these away and the balance sheet does not look particularly great!
Lease exposure is very significant in next 1-3 years time. The figure leaps up in Year 2 massively.
These is clear danger here that this may struggle its existing business model.


AIMHO- I hold no positions and this is not intended as buy/sell advice.
to be continued....

[montyhedge] 19/9/2016 09:59

So customers stopped eating meat because of brexit and bad weather, poor excuse.

[cockerhoop] 17/9/2016 20:30

BB,From memory I thought you also made money in AO World. I considered you were bonkers at the time but seem to remember they hit your sell target before their decline.

[knigel] 17/9/2016 19:38

OK since I have not held the shares recently I concede to the experts (many who are "new" to me since I last posted here probably over a year ago) - perhaps I should have said "planned growth of stores" instead. Also until last week - the market had treated CRAW very well - I guess the share price must have been one of the best performers over the last 1-2-3 years? Well until last week..

[battlebus2] 17/9/2016 17:57

Typo I'm not going into details but safe to say I've had multiple returns on my investments with RR. Blueheath Whittard Booker Crawshaw Anpario. I didn't follow him into QPP.

[typo56] 17/9/2016 17:37

battlebus, I wonder what you've followed with RR that you've done very well out of, apart from ANP perhaps. Not Whittard of Chelsea I assume. Or AO World. You wouldn't have been a shareholder in Select (Retail) Ltd which, following his resignation, underwent a Creditors' Voluntary Liquidation.

My feeling is many companies (especially those AIM listed) is that they are managed in the interests of the directors and company advisors more than in the interests of the ordinary shareholders. Once shares have been issued the holders become little more than an awkward irritation. Beware if you sense your directors are not telling it straight and are taking steps to avoid reporting stuff to you. Sometimes your nose may be wrong, but why risk it?

[battlebus2] 17/9/2016 16:18

Bit of editing there Tiger. Imv these won't go bust go under or fail but DYOR everybody.

[battlebus2] 17/9/2016 16:18

Bit of editing there Tiger. Imv these won't go bust go under or fail but DYOR everybody.

[penciles2] 17/9/2016 16:07

It could go under quickly if creditors get nervous

[castleford tiger] 17/9/2016 14:52

Well lots been said but SALES/PROFIT GROWTH ??

Really

The best EPS figure has been 1.42p which was about double the previous.
Sales growth 50% was all last year and ALL BOUGHT IN.
Market cap meanwhile as a huge number of shares were issued.....was 70 million at its peak approx. 90p

That's a pe of 63 times.
Its far worse if you look at last year when even with the growth the eps was negative.

This is the growth that you pay a handsome premium for?
Frankly I just don't see it.

LETS COMPARE

Now take a company that has between 2011 and 2015 has grown its EPS from 10p to 60p.
Shareholders funds are 50% of market cap.
It has no debt

Turnover has grown each year from 500 m to 1.5 billion along with an increase in profit ...see eps numbers.
It has not issued any shares to fund this growth and it looks like the growth could soon start to get even faster.

How do we value this company?
Currently 7x last years earnings.

Crawshaw will probably fail in my opinion. I see no value at all.

See the day Colin Crawshaw took his chips off the table..........he knew.
Concept idea that had good PR and a big following of punters.
Never appealed to me and now I am predicting it will go under.

Tiger.

PS the company on a p/e of 7 is DART GROUP

[duncan doughnut] 17/9/2016 12:35

'Growth' KNIGEL?

Sales growth, but where's the profit growth? Sales are vanity, profit is sanity. CRAW's current forecasts are for no profit for the next two years and now that has gotten dramatically worse.

I really don't know what I was thinking holding any of these!

[battlebus2] 17/9/2016 12:18

Risk risk risk then there's stock related risk... Not one stock on the market is free from risk.. Diversify your portfolio and don't put all your eggs in the same basket. Everyone will eventually have their winners and losers I've suffered a few myself, you learn by your mistakes.

On the subject of RR I've done very well by following him but like everyone else he's not infallible but on the whole he's a winner.

This issue of footfall is not a new thing for long term holders here and will pop up from time to time as it does for anyone on the high street. It's the ability of management to get round the problem which is where Noel will have to show his metal.