Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[knigel] 17/9/2016 11:58

hvs - some companies deserve a high PE ratio if they are providing high growth/profits and CRAW was trying to expand rapidly and obviously over reached .. so the market continued to rate the share price highly because until this week it was growth growth growth! Now it is not and the share price has reacted according.. as for shareholders - if you were here back in 2013/14 most would have sold out or at least banked some profits.. it's the more recent investors who have got caught out here GL

[hvs1] 17/9/2016 11:28

"I guess no amount of experience - speaking as an "old fart" - can fully protect you from an unforeseen profits warning - disappointing trading update - placing etc.. however I guess with CRAW it was obvious to the majority that the share price/market value was over valued"

I agree, one cannot foretell the future, but if it was 'obvious' that it was over valued then taking no action is poor judgement

the warning signs were brewing here, from a market perspective, from the later part of 2015, its does seem to happen often enough that the market starts to shift perspective on stocks well in advance.

[hvs1] 17/9/2016 10:39

mr young old fart davidosh, didn't you once squander a six figure sum on that rubbish SID

i dont fall in love with shares, companies or management, i find its an expensive pastime, lol

[knigel] 17/9/2016 09:05

I guess no amount of experience - speaking as an "old fart" - can fully protect you from an unforeseen profits warning - disappointing trading update - placing etc.. however I guess with CRAW it was obvious to the majority that the share price/market value was over valued...

[melody9999] 17/9/2016 08:57

CRAW off my watchlist. High street retailing is not the place to invest at present, and CRAW is the riskier end. The last RNS was poor, and whilst businesses can suffer downturns, in my eyes management have lost massive credibility by not providing clarity. Either they don't know or they are not telling.

My guess from the RNS is that going forward they will ensure sales momentum returns but that horrible phrase "invest in margin" means profits will not recover.

GLA

[castleford tiger] 17/9/2016 07:51

The MELLO events I attended were superb..........even had a few beers afterwards.

tiger

[paulypilot] 17/9/2016 02:51

We're not old farts at Mello events actually - it's a room full of shrewd investors.
Also, why imply that older people are "farts"? In my view, older investors have had a lifetime of investing experience, and are more likely to be shrewd. Whilst younger investors bring knowledge of Glassdoor and TrustPilot, and all the modern ways of analysing shares, but can often be over-confident - I certainly was. I like combining the two, that makes for a great overall view. Investing is a team sport - pooling our knowledge & experience.

Paul.

[davidosh] 16/9/2016 22:36

hvs1.....I am pretty sure you have never been to a Mello event but clearly feel you are an expert in knowing everything about them and the investors who attend ! lol

There are detailed write ups on all the companies that present to us and often videos available a few days later for other investors to watch at their leisure. Nothing wrong with Mello as a way to network with fellow investors and meeting companies but I am sure you have a much much better way of doing it.....not that we will ever know but good luck with it.

[knigel] 16/9/2016 17:19

Longs? As in shareholders?
Some non holders seen to be spending quite a lot on here.. Which is fine but personally like to post on shares I hold or may (re) invest in. Of course some may be interested in the sector. share price recovery will be slow here if it happens imo

[evil_doctor_facilier] 16/9/2016 16:24

have a nice weekend all.

[tia1617] 16/9/2016 15:44

Getting some of this. This is ridiculously oversold

[penciles2] 16/9/2016 15:42

I suspect they are locked into expensive high st rents they can't get out of

[hvs1] 16/9/2016 15:29

didn't see that PW coming and that is some vicious mark down

but this was just a matter of time and an accident waiting to happen, the rating this was sat on was ridiculous

it's just a chain of butchers shops that overeached themselves, it's not greggs and i wouldn't back a player that wants to take on an established successful format like that and as for butchery shops, they're under constant competitive pressure it's not a great market to be in, margins are weak too. they may have been a localised success but that doesn't mean it'll work on a roll out scale.

typical mello old farts stock pick, buy and hold and back the management cause you like them is a disastrous strategy, markets and businesses change and one has to make money and move on.

whether this gets lower is anybodys guess, scores an avoid in my books

c ya x

[deltrotter] 16/9/2016 15:17

Agreed typo56 and evil. I guess people will, on the whole, talk their own book. If anyone differs from their view, they will try to shout them down.

A clear warning signal IMO.

Anyway - its time to move on. I wish you guys the best of luck, but as a vegan I won't be joining you by buying here!

[salchow] 16/9/2016 15:14

To be attempting to build up a large High Street presence and then think that factory outlets (of which there are only 4 at present) is the way to go instead does not give me that much confidence in the management. Particularly for a share that was so highly rated. It is a bit like a builder who started to build detached houses, then knocked the first one down when half built and decided to build semi's instead (that has actually happened!)

[davidosh] 16/9/2016 14:56

Do not forget the new NED will be able to add a fair bit of knowledge and experience as he has a great retail and supply background....McMeikan is currently Group CEO of the Brakes Group, a position he has held since 2013. Prior to this, Ken was Group CEO of Greggs Plc, the UK's leading bakery food-on-the-go retailer, a position he held from 2008-2013. Additionally, Ken has a combined 18 years of senior retail experience with both Tesco and Sainsbury's.

I think the factory outlet stores have good potential growth and although Crawshaws currently have four I think there is huge potential for those. I understand they are pretty much the top performing stores so I think that says it all. It is probably the easy parking and far higher spend per customer with lower staff costs that makes the difference.

I suspect in two weeks time the presentation to investors will be showing a rather different business model to the high street store version or at least potentially different with a mix that has a greater weighting to these outlet stores. I am still feeling positive and our meeting with Noel and Alan, hopefully at my next Mello in October, will show they can still get Crawshaws growing very profitably but mainly in somewhat different destination locations

[typo56] 16/9/2016 14:42

I kind of agree with you Evil Dr.

With forums like ADVFN it's easy to be lazy and ignorant, relying on other people who sound like they've done their 'research'. Many like to be comforted and reassured that they've invested well, and they don't take kindly to reading contrary opinions. Yet it is those posts they should take note of, and investigate to see if they have any valididy.

[deltrotter] 16/9/2016 14:17

People get absolutely blinded IMO. They simply can not accept another view point.

After 25 years of investing and following BBs I think my key pieces of advice would be:

1. Keep an open mind.
2. Do not get too heavy into one stock. The tortoise beats the hare every single time. Accumulate wealth slowly!

Cheers

Del

[deltrotter] 16/9/2016 13:58

Aye to that as well.

Great call yesterday BTW. I am not a holder here but keep an eye on the board. It was fascinating reading the messages from the day before the profit warning. You were absolutely slated by the longs.

[evil_doctor_facilier] 16/9/2016 13:48

The irony is, if anyone ill treated or harmed a beast they would be prosecuted by the RSPCA.
However, slash the neck of none anesthetised beast under the excuse of Theism and that's fine, the RSPCA are not interested.
Rather like the lack of care feminists have in the same circumstances of Theism for misogynistic tendencies and child genital mutilation!
They are far too busy concerning themselves with really pushing matters like Jeremy Clarkson, or Safe space to worry about that.