Costain Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/2/2021 16:00

ham - you could always put it in the right place...

And if you were really being clever, you could line up Ammu's as well...

[hamhamham1] 25/2/2021 15:57

I have COST, KIER, CPI, BAB.
I figure just one of them has to quadruple and the rest is gravy.

[hamhamham1] 25/2/2021 15:56

Ahhh

Skinny...........................204
NPP62............................155
Ammu................153
Knowing..........................150
Claymagnet.......................136
Im a stupid git as well..........125
Pinemartin.......................115
Riskblue.........................106
Grand time........................98
Wiganer...........................80
Thags.............................60
TheOldCodger......................55
Hamhamham1........................135

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/2/2021 15:50

Peeps - I'm not updating the table, don't be lazy.

Take it, insert your estimate and repost.

😎

[ammu12] 25/2/2021 14:39

Wow massive gap to fill !!

[skinny] 25/2/2021 14:36

67.40p highest since Last July - 204p here we come :-)


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[hamhamham1] 25/2/2021 14:36

Now by end of 2024, thats a different answer... 350p

[hamhamham1] 25/2/2021 14:32

135p by end of year.

[ammu12] 25/2/2021 12:34

70's soonVery bullish all the way to 100p++

[pinemartin9] 25/2/2021 12:30

Would be good to get an average price once all reccs are in. We could then also issue a buy recommendation with target price as per the revered COST thread and renowned bulletin board. Create some momentum and take on the big boys!

Maybe, I'm just getting excited.

[knowing] 25/2/2021 12:28

Mmmm

imastu pidgitaswell19 Feb '21 - 11:36 - 533 of 597
0 0 0
We could always do a 'guess the price' comp - 31st December 2021? Prize - eternal reverance on the COST thread?

[ammu12] 25/2/2021 12:27

Skinny...........................204NPP62............................155Ammu................153Knowing..........................150Claymagnet.......................136Im a stupid git as well..........125Pinemartin.......................115Riskblue.........................106Grand time........................98Wiganer...........................80Thags.............................60TheOldCodger......................55

[ammu12] 25/2/2021 12:27

What is this ?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/2/2021 12:26

And remember, share price forecast as at 31.12.21 - COP tomorrow:

Skinny...........................204
NPP62............................155
Knowing..........................150
Claymagnet.......................136
Im a stupid git as well..........125
Pinemartin.......................115
Riskblue.........................106
Grand time........................98
Wiganer...........................80
Thags.............................60
TheOldCodger......................55

This week's punters have a bit of an advantage, although there is nothing stopping anyone change their mind 😎

[ammu12] 25/2/2021 12:20

Agreed costain is undervalued!!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/2/2021 12:17

F - one of the relevant factors, without boring everyone to tears (!), is enterprise value. The real value of a business (e.g. to an acquirer) is the market cap plus the debt they would take on (or minus the net cash they would be buying).

COST's enterprise value (EV) is market cap minus net cash - so around £100m using 66p (275m shares) and £80m for the net cash (which is what they have said it will probably be at the year end - the current cash levels are a lot higher and were £140m at 30.06.21)

KIE's EV is their market cap (£152m) plus their net debt (c£436m average net debt per the last set of numbers, so c£590m. Assuming their own data is correct...



The key issue is the proportion of the equity to the enterprise value, i.e. how much does a movement in the share price (market cap) impact the enterprise value. In the case of COST, it's a low gearing, i.e. a 10% move in the share price changes the enterprise value a lot more in percentage terms than a 10% movement in KIE's share price does. So in a sector moving upwards, the KIE price has to move a lot more to deliver the same increase in enterprise value.

It doesn't mean KIE is necessarily a better investment, or indeed that the share price will increase by a higher percentage (they have moved pretty much the same since the Summer lows) - it just means that if all is well and the enterprise values increase by the same percentage, KIE will move up by a (much) higher percentage share price. Note the key part - if all is well. The fact that the share prices (not the EV) have moved up by similar percentages tells you something about the risk perception by the market.

Some numbers:

...................COST.............KIE
M cap...............180.............150
Cash/Debt............80............(436)
EV..................100.............586

10% share price increase:

M cap...............198.............165
Cash/Debt............80............(436)
EV..................118.............601

% EV change..........18%..............3%


It therefore becomes a question of risk appetite - if you want higher risk, and potentially higher reward, buy KIE (but be aware of the risks); if you want low risk but still rewards albeit potentially lower, then buy COST. Or you could just do both - a subtlety lost on the KIE thread.

[saucepan] 25/2/2021 11:45

It is going to be a significant day if this momentum builds or holds into the close.

[wiganer] 25/2/2021 11:28

You were saying?

[farrugia] 25/2/2021 09:24

what will it take for this dog to go up?

[pinemartin9] 25/2/2021 08:24

Let's hope this weathers the morning downward pressure. If it does and ends up this will be very bullish.

[owenski] 24/2/2021 18:20

Maybe the selling has dried up.

[pinemartin9] 24/2/2021 17:23

Nice end to the day and the usual drop avoided. Let's hope for some of the true value here to be realised.

[skinny] 24/2/2021 16:44

imastu pidgitaswell - easily done :-)

[wiganer] 24/2/2021 16:42

Strong close.