Costain Dividends - COST

Costain Dividends - COST

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type Stock ISIN Stock Description
Costain Group Plc COST London Ordinary Share GB00B64NSP76 ORD 50P
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price High Price Low Price Open Price Close Price Last Trade
  -4.20 -2.21% 185.80 192.20 180.20 185.00 190.00 16:14:00
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Industry Sector

Costain COST Dividends History

Announcement Date Type Currency Dividend Amount Period Start Period End Ex Date Record Date Payment Date Total Dividend Amount

Top Dividend Posts

bubloo: article in daily telegraph over weekend. likely h2s ? cancellation. Would it impact share price as I remember reading that it is 20% of annual revenues contracted for the next few years. How will it play out if contract cancelled
bogdan branislov: I do actually wonder about the downside risk if HS2 is cancelled or significantly delayed. There has been an unjustified nervousness around the sector since 2016. Costain has announced to profit reductions accompanied by remarkable price falls. If HS2 is cancelled you would need a lot Costain shareholders with the view of 'holding Costain for a 2 way bet on HS2 going ahead and on schedule'. Such skittish shareholders have long gone. Consider the emphasis of the comment now. I would say that 90% of the current Costain shareholders have consistent long term investment records of outperforming the market, you can tell from the comment. Profit forecast falls combined with sector anxiety when linked to the long term underlying strength of the business and the improving sector outlook has distilled down the shareholders to those who look for value in areas where the market has clearly over reacted. HS2 cancellation could result in some of our recovery gains being briefly eroded, but I suspect that it will not result in the share price falling below the recent lows.
karv1: I have invested a lot into Costain as well, I am not too worried as I am trying to find stocks that could give somewhere near 10% returns with good cover while at the same time being oversold with possible big future share price rises with money in the bank and low debt. This stock ticks many boxes. I know some say when a company gets endless exceptionals write-downs and losses then they become the norm, I would say with Costain pass this shows us that this is a company that is generally well run. With how nervous the market is at moment a company just has to sneeze and it drops 20% But with sound fundamentals they always bounce back in the end.
bogdan branislov: Re HS2 and is cancellation still in the price. I remain a shareholder, I have a 6 figure sum invested in Costain, so clearly I have a vested interest, this is how I see it, warts and all. The chance of HS2 cancellation is, in my opinion, 50% now, possibly higher. Why? because the projected costs have risen and the regional railways desperately need investment, it will be hard to do both in this parliament. Directing investment at HS2 rather than the local railways including in the former Labour regions is not a good re-election strategy for the Conservatives. HS2 is under 20% of turnover for Costain in 2020, so lets say just over 20% of its profits. The long term impact comes down to simple maths. If you deduct just over 20% of next years profits from Costain's 2020 forecast, will this make a distressed business in terms of its balance sheet and does Costain still look cheaply priced without HS2 profits. The answers are, no, Costain's balance sheet equity should grow in 2020 without HS2 and yes, without HS2 still looks very cheap. But we know that markets are skittish, if HS2 cancels then yes there will be an instant share price impact perhaps of 10% or more, hard to see a big fall from the current price as Costain's valuation more than allows for HS2 cancellation, but if the price recovers, say 15%, then HS2 cancels, Costain could fall by 10% or more instantly. This does not concern me, Costain is both high quality and very cheap, a rare combination. If HS2 cancels, Costain will pick up a lot of regional work. The construction sector has been the hardest hit by the economic and political uncertainty of recent years, Costain has shown its quality by facing challenges without balance sheet distress. I also have large holdings in CSP, MGNS, FORT, GLE and LGEN. These companies, like Costain are high quality and under priced. They have not hit quite so many bumps in the road as Costain, but this is in the price, Costain is selling for much the same share price as nearly a decade ago, with very little share issuing since and look what has happened to Costain's balance sheet equity in the past decade, around 5x up I recall. Costain should double to triple in share price over the next 2 to 3 years, no guarantees obviously, but my SIPP is over 12x up since May 2009 from investment returns/dividends alone, so my while my calls are not always right, they are correct more often than not. Essential to take at least an 18 month view here, the road could remain a little bumpy for a while. This is not a 2 way bet on HS2 continuation, I anticipate HS2 cancellation and believe Costain to be a genuine bargain without HS2. I will keep calling it as I see it on this thread.
bogdan branislov: spooky, as previously mentioned, the real strength of Costain is the long term balance sheet equity growth, the long term earnings growth and the very strong balance sheet per se. When that is linked to such a low cash adjusted forward PE, the case becomes compelling. You are right about HS2 of course, there could be a delay or even a cancellation. HS2 is just under 20% of next year's turnover for Costain. This would trigger some kind of share price reaction no doubt. On the other hand, the general climate for construction is likely to improve significantly next year and the price moves from the likes of MGNS, which is still under priced, is starting to make Costain look remarkably cheap despite the risk of an HS2 set back. Further contract wins should be steady over the next year. I agree that a longer time horizon is needed here, certainly investors should be prepared to wait 18 to 24 months to see the full benefit of a Costain shareholding, although I would be surprised if we did not see some decent gains well before then.
bogdan branislov: The more I look at Costain, the more I am becoming convinced that it is the cheapest stock on the UK exchanges. PE ratio under 8. Cash adjust and it is 6.5, by the end of 2020, the cash adjusted PE is likely to be nearer 6. The cash pile is 20% of the market cap by the way, and that is after the sector generally has had a tough time over recent years, although there is no evidence of that at all in Costain's balance sheet, none whatsoever. Growth in balance sheet equity - the real measure of growth in shareholder value - has been building steady for a decade, and that is after paying generous dividends, and is still expected to grow this year even though earnings will be about a third down on last year. Balance sheet equity for Costain is about 5 times higher than it was in 2010. The share price is actually slightly lower now than it was in 2010, if you allow for the small amount of share issuing over this period, the share price is effectively unchanged despite the considerable build up in value within the balance sheet since 2010. And then there is market cap, a mere 1.5 times TBV, bear in mind that Costain is not a land holding house builder or a real estate investment trust. This is a high quality company selling for a giveaway price. Bogdan
mhm2013: Is the share price growth really just due to going ex-dividend tomorrow? It was only 3.9p a share. What am I missing?
cerrito: Thanks for that on the HS2 review, markycrispy. This will be a cloud over the share price for the rest of the year and perhaps beyond given possibility of a new government.
jonwig: The pension scheme deficit looks quite manageable: £4.2m vs £23.9m last time. And they have a recovery plan in place. They mention longevity as a positive factor, but I suspect interest rates will be more important: rising would help, but that's unlikely. I suspect the share price is spooked by Kier Group, and I wonder as well whether huge contracts are the best way forward: so many moving parts, subcontractors, deliver length - all can go wrong. Forward PER is about 6x, 3 brokers go strong buy, 2 go neutral. If I held, I'd stick, but aren't a buyer, as so much can go wrong in the wider scene.
kinwah: Such is the nervousness in the sector,a fairly modest profit warning devastates the COST share price. This must be due to investors thinking as with Kier there is worse to come. Any problem is seen as just the tip of an iceberg. That has to be wrong but it takes a brave investor to try and pick the bargains amongst the corporate carnage.
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