Cordel Share Discussion Threads

[columbarius] 06/11/2024 19:54

So why have they only been able to sign up two US companies over the last 4 years and why no contract with Union Pacific after a supposedly successful trial?
I’m wondering if it’s a union problem or perhaps protectionism, something likely to be a bigger issue with Trump back in the hot seat.

[philly cheesesteak] 06/11/2024 19:46

I'm hardly going to respond to you on the other thread am I?

And there isn't much point bothering as if there is any decent discussion clocktower & co will pop up and derail it.

I do find the negativity on this company absolutely baffling and I'll be leaving it well alone until the next material news.

Nevertheless I think it's a gem of a company & the directors own 30% of it, if AIM doesn't see the value then they will almost certainly move it to the ASX where tech companies are properly valued.

[columbarius] 06/11/2024 19:44

Here’s a direct quote from 30th March 2023:
“The gross proceeds of the Placing will support further expansion into the US market”

So why have they only added one new customer, a tier 2 company, in 20 months?

They have been talking about US expansion since 2020 and have signed up one tier 1 and one tier 2. It’s very slow going. In 2021 they claimed to have had a successful trial with tier 1 company Union Pacific but no mention since. What happened to that contract? (Trial announced by RNS 23rd June 2021)

[clocktower] 06/11/2024 19:27

PC, that is the view that any investor needs to take, three to five years. The potential is huge and I am sure the directors and certain staff members will be very well rewarded with share options and the real benefits will come when they get to a point that they want to cash those options, which by then I expect will be very generous, so they can enrich themselves and dilute investors that have already been here several years.

[columbarius] 06/11/2024 19:15

Philly Cheesesteak5 Nov '24 - 10:17 - 1038 of 1045
I'll respond to you once and that's that.

Tired of your new thread already?

[philly cheesesteak] 06/11/2024 19:10

Re. directors remuneration, as per page 44 of the annual report 2024 totalled £579k vs £453k in 2023, so a £126k increase, not £256k.

John Davis only become permanent CEO in April 2023, so had 3 months salary in last years accounts and a full year this time, so like Thouraya Walker, the comparison isn't apples v apples.

Regardless, I can confidently say that their salaries will be in the bottom 10% of AIM companies, and they wouldn't be much better than average for any London based tech company. To call them greedy is ridiculous.

Re. the use of placing funds, it was to build out the wider team;

"c. £1.0m will be used for recruitment of sales and technical staff (over 1.5 years), to include a senior account manager and delivery lead in the US, a UK/EU Sales Lead, and a delivery Lead, field engineer and developer to be based in the UK;"

This is clearly something they have now done, hence the increase in overhead spend. They had only won the Amtrak deal weeks before the placing so there was clearly work to be done to get that bedded in. Recent wins in the US & Mexico are further ROI.

Bottom line is it's easy to look for reasons to sell a micro cap, I'm here for where this gets to in 3-5 years, so am far more interested in the future when turnover is >£10m

[srpactive] 06/11/2024 18:25

C Attacking, christ.

[indalo] 06/11/2024 17:44

Thouraya Walker was appointed May 2023 so only had two months in post reflected in her 2023 directors’ remuneration. Assuming her monthly pay & benefits were £12k per month per the FY23 accounts, then her pro rata for FY24 appears to be down on prior year, even allowing for the sabbatical.

John Davis earned £140k base plus £28k bonus which seems very reasonable for the role and developments achieved during the year.

Of some comfort is that two founders remain major shareholders and don’t appear to be drawing excessive salaries. There is a positive tension there between salary and equity value which should help to protect investors from the potential greed of directors.

All IMHO

[clocktower] 06/11/2024 17:23

Well done columbarius - If I would have pointed that out, srp would have been attacking me for brining it up.

Greed setting in before profits for investors is a AIM issue always.

[columbarius] 06/11/2024 16:30

It was my 100,000 trade early on. They delayed it so it was marked unknown, but it was a sale. I noticed after that it became more difficult to sell.

The placing in March 2023 was supposed to be funding expansion in the US. They raised about £1.5m after expenses but I notice from the accounts that £256,500 went towards bumping up director salaries (edit - correct figure is £126,000. The first figure was extracted from the annual report which didn’t clarify that two FY23 salaries were part-year). I realise the increases were from a low base, but I think they should have shown a bit of restraint until turning a profit. As for the US expansion following the placing they’ve only added one new customer in 20 months so they haven’t exactly shot the lights out.

[clocktower] 06/11/2024 10:32

Well, the party is over until the next positive news, which hopefully will be a new contract or an extension of a current one.

So, it's a matter of waiting or trading a few to see if one can buy them back a little lower down the food chain. With two MM still on bid at 7.5p it looks tempting to take a bit of profit. Hmmmm

[srpactive] 05/11/2024 17:53

Why should I leave his is pestering me following and messaging me. Block h please. I am positive on Cordel. He has a problem.

[philly cheesesteak] 05/11/2024 13:05

clocktower, it seems that you and srpactive are joined at the hip. Is there any chance that both of you can remain on the old thread?

'Contract news this week' is so tedious. It's baseless speculation and contributes precisely nothing to the discussion. What do you hope to gain from it?

A £16.7m market cap is tiny compared to the market opportunity here, they are scratching the surface but have both feet in the door.

[clocktower] 05/11/2024 12:41

Keep up the good work srp.

Market value now around £16.5/17 million.

[srpactive] 05/11/2024 12:39

Contract news this week I reckon. Dyor

[mr macgregor] 05/11/2024 12:20

You can access Cavendish reports free on Research Tree.

[srpactive] 05/11/2024 12:12

Virtually full ask being paid 7.99p, going to pop higher on the offer very soon. We are actually higher today based on the rising bid price. We are going to boom higher on any contract need. Very positive here. Dyor

[indalo] 05/11/2024 11:20

How do I sign up for the Cavendish note? I’m in a doom loop where I enter my email, they send a login link which takes me back to the same page with the note locked..

[philly cheesesteak] 05/11/2024 11:05

As I said earlier today, they don't capitalise R&D spend, which is very unusual amongst small cap SaaS stocks. The below is from today's note and discusses forecast numbers.

"For a company that does not capitalise its R&D and therefore with little difference between EBIT and EBITDA, we consider 22% adj EBIT margin is a reasonable target given a £2.2m target adj EBIT"

I've no issue with a company being operationally breakeven but loss making when inclusive of R&D spend, providing they are growing top line & gross profit quickly (which CRDL are)

On page 45 of the 2022 annual report they disclosed that R&D spend in the P&L was £1.225m in 2022 and £980k in 2021. It's hard to believe that 2024 R&D spend would be lower than 2022, so if this was capitalised (as Beeks Financial Cloud do), then the P&L would very likely show a profit before tax.

[mr macgregor] 05/11/2024 10:55

Naturally the moaning myrtles will pick on the reported loss of £1.3m, but they neglect to mention that cash burn, including capex for growth, was only £0.25m over the year so they are close to cash breakeven as promised. They began the new financial year with over £1m cash in hand and raised £1m gross at a premium so they’re well positioned with a confident outlook.

[philly cheesesteak] 05/11/2024 10:40

Also I note that yesterday Cavendish released a 52m tech demo from Cordel;



Not watched it yet, but this has to be good for shareholder engagement.

[philly cheesesteak] 05/11/2024 10:38

Nice updated broker note out from Cavendish, the below is excellent insight;

"We understand Cordel continues to undertake positive engagements with six other Class I railroads and a number of Class II and III railroads, underpinning c.£3.5m US & Mexico revenue expectation in FY25. Investment in product following the £1m raise is focused on strengthening 3D point cloud capability in order to enter the Positive Train Control market, a significant and regulated US opportunity. The raise accelerated the pace of product development, and we could expect initial launch and trials within the next 12-18 months, with revenue prospects thereafter."

The note can be found here;



I would highly recommend registering to read it as it has some excellent information on contracts won to date in particular.

[srpactive] 05/11/2024 10:27

Excellent news thread please can you consider putting up the old maestrano chart for guidance. Thank you dyor.

[mr macgregor] 05/11/2024 10:27

You can’t blame clocktower for talking his own book, and I do credit him for tolerating those with alternative views, unlike some of the fakes on AIM. On balance though, I find the bipolar personality gets tedious after a while so I’ll leave him to be the omnipotent controller of the narrative on his own thread.