Cordel Share Discussion Threads

[clocktower] 04/11/2024 16:51

LOL srp - you know what goes up must come down but your 10p is easily achieveable presently it seems, maybe 15p even.

One big new contract and it should run with the foxes before the hounds catch up.

[srpactive] 04/11/2024 14:35

For always,

[clocktower] 04/11/2024 12:00

Good volume again today.

All MM on offer at 8p now.

Upwards and onwards for now.

[suffolkjim] 04/11/2024 11:08

That would be great Philly, yes please

[philly cheesesteak] 04/11/2024 11:07

Thinking it might be useful to create a new thread here given recent developments?

Presently it's not very helpful to any potential new investors passing through and I'm keen to summarise the last few months of key developments in the header, along with the Edison videos, links to broker notes and other info.

Share price moving higher again this morning, was nice to see some chunky buys at 8p in the 11am auction, they've not been filled as there was nothing on the sell side.

[srpactive] 03/11/2024 20:58

Would be ideal if we released super figures in the morning followed by
a few new contract wins.

dyor

[srpactive] 02/11/2024 19:56

The contracts will come thick and fast as revenue climbs showing
other operators are using Cordels technology, busy business encourages
more business. With good results and contracts we should climb up and through
10p.

dyor

[srpactive] 02/11/2024 18:18

Yes I am looking forward to the results, not your thoughts though.

[clocktower] 02/11/2024 09:27

Come on srp, you have to admit that normally the share price would have moved up by a fair margin with that volume of buys.

As you say though it does seem the city boys are being given the green light to buy in at just under ask.

Lets look forward to the results and the statements that are with them.

[clocktower] 01/11/2024 13:18

Because of the volume that has been traded over the past few days at or near the current level, I am wondering if Rathbone Nominees Limited are selling some of their holding off, and if so it's unlikely to rise until such time as they stop doing so.

[srpactive] 01/11/2024 10:54

Which they are, this will rocket on any sniff of £10m revenue getting close. Dyor the nibbling continues at virtually full ask.

[philly cheesesteak] 01/11/2024 10:46

One of the best aspects here is how aligned the management are with shareholders.

Aaron Hoye, the CTO, owns 11.91% of the share capital. In FY23 he drew a salary of £89k, at 7.25p his shareholding is worth £1.9m or 21x his annual salary. That is going to motivate you to do everything possible to build out the tech offering & win new customers.

Likewise the former CEO Nicolas Smith, now VP Europe & Middle East has the same size shareholding & took a salary of just £67k last year.

I strongly suspect the medium term plan will be exit at a significant ARR multiple. 80%+ gross margins are pretty attractive as any buyer could streamline overheads and crank up the operating margin. They just need to continue winning new customers & expanding with existing ones!

[greybroath] 31/10/2024 19:38

All of us who have bought in can see the potential. What we need to see is the potential being realised.

There's lots of promise - it's good that it keeps on coming - but eventually we need to see revenue, and in excess of costs.

I'm holding because I can still see how this could be a great company. I just want it to be one.

[petewy] 31/10/2024 17:54

From Edison

There are five key reasons why Cordel represents an exciting investment case.

First, Cordel has won substantial, multi-year contracts with major railroads and rolling stock companies globally, including Amtrak, Network Rail, ARTC and Angel Trains, demonstrating a strong market fit. With a strong pipeline, management is hoping to double the company’s customer base over the next 12 months.
Second, once embedded within an organisation, the group becomes a data management beachhead, enabling stickiness and unlocking up- and cross-sell opportunities by leveraging data it has already processed. The sale of one additional use case can potentially double the value of a contract, alongside efficient and low cost delivery.
Third, with considerable investment in sales and delivery now complete, Cordel is well-positioned for operationally geared growth, especially in the substantial target North American market where the company has seen significant pipeline expansion. The company’s established partner network should support more global growth.
Fourth, globally, infrastructure digitalisation and spatial computing trends present significant market opportunities as sensor proliferation expands collectible data volumes. Cordel’s automated solution helps railroads derive value from data that might otherwise be siloed and unusable. Substantial government funding and initiatives in the group’s key markets are also driving customer adoption.
Finally, at 1.3x FY24 EV/sales, the valuation overlooks the expansion potential with the company’s top tier clients, as well as the potential to double its customer base in a short timeframe by executing on the current pipeline. Key re-rating catalysts are proving additional use case demand, upselling contracts and winning new clients, especially in the US. Cordel has a £10m mid-term recurring revenue target, where delivering this with the current cost structure would provide strong validation for the current strategy.

Npe selling at 7.1p

[philly cheesesteak] 31/10/2024 17:36

As nice as that would be, commercially it's tricky to post contract values for every new win when they are likely pitching to several customers as we speak, it just creates potential complications for closing a deal.

I note you couldn't get a quote for more than 50k shares / £3.5k into close.

5 day cumulative volume is around 4.7m and I have the free float at 70-90m shares, so it's no surprise that shares are getting scarce. A move to the 10p level would be more than justified given the commercial progress over the last 6 months.

[myn0k] 31/10/2024 17:02

Great news and also good to see new commenters here. What I really want to see is them posting contract value. A bit more transparency would go a long way.

[suffolkjim] 31/10/2024 14:37

Thanks for posting this Philly

[philly cheesesteak] 31/10/2024 12:47

An excellent interview with the CEO from a couple of days ago

hxxps://www.edisongroup.com/edison-tv/cordel-group-executive-interview-2/34080/

My notes

1. The G&W deal won in July; G&W has lots of companies across the US and provides a lot of opportunity for the future (per Wiki they have 116 freight railroads and 13k miles of track).

2. June's deal with Tren Maya 'feels like a really significant multi year opportunity for us'

3. US VP of Sales & Australian engineers are top class and are driving things to the next level

4. The CTO is currently in the states for the next couple of weeks meeting with customers and potential new customers

5. As the US VP of sales sells to more customers there is a real sense that Cordel has something exciting to bring to the market

6. The £1m placing is going to be used to get their 3D object recognition software to market faster (more engineers) and in front of customers (more US sales reps). It's focused on the Positive Train Control regulation. Aim is to have ready in H2 2025

7. Aiming to maintain their 30-40% revenue growth in the medium term, with £10m revenues by FY27/28 (note that 35% CAGR gets them to £10.8m by FY27). Crucially this doesn't include any revenue for their new PTC module, so Cavendish forecasts for £10m by FY28 look nice and conservative.

8. Importantly, they only need around 20 customers with 5 of them being Amtrak size (£1m per annum) to reach £10m relatively quickly, so the doubling from 4 to 8 over the last few months is brilliant

9. Then talks about their land & expand success to date & that the modules are maturing really well

[srpactive] 31/10/2024 11:20

Offer going to go up very soon. Dyor

[suffolkjim] 31/10/2024 10:21

These really do move up and down on very little volume. Once the herd arrives (perhaps when they become profitable) this could well fly.

[clocktower] 31/10/2024 10:12

Nice 200k buy.

[clocktower] 31/10/2024 08:35

LOL srp come on be realistic.

I’m positive but not that delusional.

[srpactive] 31/10/2024 08:07

R what will happen? A 100p share price.dyor

[rochdae] 31/10/2024 07:46

Excellent. What will happen when there is a roll out to 50% of Amtrak and/or other global train networks.