Condor Gold Share Discussion Threads

[tester2020] 19/3/2021 14:43

Mako Mining built a 500tpd plant at San Albino, and were then permitted to upgrade this to 1000tpd. If CNR want to toll mill 40koz pa, it would probably need to truck and process about 1000tpd alone to achieve this (based on 2300tpd = 100koz) - so I think Mako would not be big enough at the moment to achieve this.. Calibre on the other hand have La Libertad which I think is a 6700tpd plant and currently has the spare 1000tpd capacity to accommodate Condor's mill feed.

regards,
T2020

[book5] 19/3/2021 14:28

Tester
If i remember coorectly Somone in the other BB said they buit a plant , that still is in commisioning period ahead of full drilling results. Then drilling resulta were no so good?
It is a genuine question, I dont know

[tester2020] 19/3/2021 13:35

Sorry, it was Potrerillos -

"LONDON, UK / ACCESSWIRE / December 17, 2019 / Condor Gold (AIM:CNR)(TSX:COG) announces that Condor S.A., its wholly-owned subsidiary in Nicaragua, is selling the non-core Potrerillos exploration and exploitation concession ("Potrerillos Concession"), to Nicoz Resources S.A., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mako Mining Corp. (TSX-V:MKO) ("Mako") (together: the "Parties") for a gross cash consideration of US$ 600,000."

regards
T2020

[tester2020] 19/3/2021 13:26

book5 - sorry you mentioned this - "Do Nicoz Resources SA (subdidiary of Mako Mining Coorporation) have the capability of offering us a toll mining agreement?"

Why do you ask? Could be a possibility - but they might also be interested in buying one or two spare concessions that CNR already owns... they sold them San Albino I think a while back?

regards
T2020

[sherwood58] 19/3/2021 11:30

We know mark wants minimal dilution. So far, he has issued shares at 42p and 50p. I fully understand the issue of these shares, however I feel only a toll milling agreement will have a real boost to the shareprice prior to the finance raise for the construction.

[tester2020] 19/3/2021 11:17

For me, giving up perhaps 40-80koz (only c.5% of the total permitted resource) in return for $15M-$30M cash is worth the trade off between waiting 18 months to mine it all yourself and get $40-80M.. that's because the near term cash flow will make CNR much stronger. A rerate to the share price of 90p-100p for example, would allow CNR to raise the mine CAPEX at much higher levels - probably reducing equity dilution significantly.. i.e £15M at 50p or £15M at 100p is a huge difference in shares to be issued!

But yes, lets get the deal done first!

regards
T2020

[888icb] 19/3/2021 10:50

Thanks for that Tester it. Let’s hope Mark can pull that off now as we all know any business is a lot stronger with decent cash flow.

[book5] 19/3/2021 10:44

Do Nicoz Redources SA (subdidiary of Mako Mining Coorporation) has the capability of offering us a toll mining agreement?
Anyone?

[tester2020] 19/3/2021 10:30

Well.. the figures stack up like this as far as I can see - a 40koz pa toll mill deal with 50/50 profit sharing would probably generate around $15M cashflow a year for Condor, with a minimal $2M CAPEX upfront and no debt required. That would give EPS (130M shares) of 12c, 8.5p.. at a conservative p/e value of 7, thats about 60p per share. Just for the toll mill deal alone.. (Plus the residual value of their resources etc - I would think it should take the share price up to the 90p-100p mark).

Now for me, heres the rub.. Calibre know all of this as well - they know that signing a toll deal with CNR would increase their SP/MCap. And if you actually wanted to buy La India/CNR cheap, would you really want to be the cause of that share price increase? For me, thats been the real cause of the delay in doing the deal so far.

My hope is that the recent change at the top of Calibre, coupled with the £4M investment from JM, $3M FMSilver, purchase of new SAG Mill now etc, means that they will finally capitulate on holding out on the pipe dream of buying CNR cheap as a distressed asset.. and finally accept that they have shot themselves in the foot for 18 months, as they could have had an extra 20koz of production per year.. If it was good enough for B2Gold, should have been good enough for them..

regards
T2020

[book5] 19/3/2021 10:27

None of my contacts have anything new to report.
All looking the same

[888icb] 19/3/2021 10:11

Tester,if Condor started Toll Mining that presumably constitutes production so would that alter how the industry values Condor at some interim figure pending full production?

[tester2020] 19/3/2021 09:37

Sir Andrew - its a point that I dont think people realise.. yes, the project will be more valuable as a producing plant operation in 18 months say, but it actually does have a value you can attribute to it now.. most explorers are valued at a percentage price of their resources in situ metal value.. i.e 2.4M oz gold resource multiplied by the current long term gold price value. Those ounces are then valued at 3-8% of the total metal price, depending on jurisdiction, inferred/indicated/measured ounces, permitted for extraction or not, grades, costs to extract etc. The "better" the answer to each of those categories, the higher the %age value.

For Condor, lets say its 2.4M x $1700 = $4.1 billion dollars. (And if Cacao can be demonstrated to be another 1M, that would be 3.4M x $1700 = $5.8B)

But lets say its 2.4M for now - 3% would be £90M, 8% would be £235M. Given that the resource is high grade, low cost and permitted for extraction, you would think Condor would be closer to the 8% - but given the jurisdiction, you could understand them attributing perhaps only 5-6% value to it. The point is, thats still £150-£175Million. Condor valued at £65M just now.. Thats the reason a lot of us think the market is undervaluing this company, even as it stands with "no production" just now..

Of course, once it gets into production, the method of valuation changes drastically. And its why so many explorers get bought out just prior to production.

regards
T2020

[888icb] 19/3/2021 08:51

Not much happening this morning but at least gold is rising currently 1742.

[erdles] 18/3/2021 19:12

Sir Andrew, many thanks.

[888icb] 18/3/2021 16:02

Actually it’s mined every day as it has been for decades by the locals and a previous company. It is very much a gold mine with lots of gold. We are just going to mine it more efficiently!

[zangdook] 18/3/2021 13:51

We're not sitting on a gold mine yet. We're sitting on some ground with a few small holes drilled in it.

[888icb] 18/3/2021 13:46

We are literally sitting on a Gold mine which is massively undervalued but the volume after nearly 7 hours of trading is just 32000!

[tester2020] 18/3/2021 12:39

We wont know debt levels (and interest costs) until the final construction financing capex figure is worked out, but if its $75M and Condor needs to find 30% of that as equity... That would leave about $50-55M between debt and gold loans. I believe the interest on the debt is likely to be c.5% per year. But if Condor produces $100M for 100koz from Y1, they could potentially pay off the debt early and avoid a lot of the interest accrual.. im sure there will be early redemption penalties built into the loans though, so might end up costing them more than its worth - just spend the profits on increasing production, buying the 4.1KW motor, more drilling and permitting of underground instead etc..

Suffice to say with income from gold sales at $100M at least, the debt and interest repayments wont be an issue! And i think all the Capex and previous exploration costs are tax deductible in Nicaragua anyway - I think CNR can probably claim about $60M from exploration costs plus say the $75M CAPEX, so they would probably be tax free for the first $135M of profit anyway! ;-)

regards
T2020

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 18/3/2021 12:20

erdles - aisc does not include those costs, they must be added on top.

[tester2020] 18/3/2021 09:45

The AISC is defined on Page 14 of the PFS from 2014 here

www.condorgold.com/sites/default/files/technical_reports/Condor%20Gold%20La%20India%20Project%20NI43-101%20PFS%20%26%20PEAs%20Final%2021%20Dec%2014.pdf

The breakdown of the 690 AISC costs is below:

Operating Cash Costs and All-In Sustaining Cash Costs as Defined By The World Gold Council US$ Per Oz Gold Produced Category (US$/ozgold)
PFS (Base Case)
Mining $361
Processing $232
G&A $63
Operating Cash Costs $657
Freight and refining $4
Royalties $38
Sustaining Capital $17
By-Product Credits(silver) ($26)
All-in Sustaining Cash Costs $690

regards
T2020

[888icb] 18/3/2021 09:36

CNR doesn’t have any debt at present is my understanding.

[erdles] 18/3/2021 09:21

Does anyone know how much of the AISC of $690/oz is debt and interest?

[book5] 18/3/2021 09:01

Have the two big sellers stop selling sub 48? We should know soon.

[book5] 17/3/2021 16:56

Hi Tester
My main contact believes that the purification plant is inside a sealed container by Aguafria in Condor's land.
Condor informed to some villagers about this plant that will provide more water to the village. Apparently condor said that a water pump is required, and that condor will provide it.
Condor made a meeting with some locals to explained the project, and distributed some leaflets. It seems many on the village are not aware yet about this development, perhaps condor should publish it in minalaindia web site?.
I am not sure when they are planning to install it, but there is a great need.
I do not have more info at this stage.

Kind regards
B.

[tester2020] 17/3/2021 12:05

book5, thanks for reminding me, MC also mentioned that as well last night :-) Is there any feedback from the village on the new water purification plant that Condor bought for La India? I think its due to come online end of March/April.. I really hope its helpful for them..

regards
T2020