Condor Gold Share Discussion Threads

[connect5] 27/4/2021 21:02

Great post corrientes.

[backwoodsman] 27/4/2021 21:00

Article in The Times today in the Ortega family and their hold over the country (Mr and Mrs = President and Vice-president) and 8 children running businesses controlling the media, etc.
'Knowing them is seen as essential for anyone attempting to run a business in the central American country.'

[book5] 27/4/2021 19:51

I dont know enough.
Miners want la Mestiza for its high grade. I believe they could settle for less if cash is good, but so far no offer has been made.
When la india becomes operational the artisanal miners will need to use mules to ferry material in and out from la Mestiza, also it is far from the village。 so both parts will need to compromise .

[oapknob1] 27/4/2021 19:41

Is there low enough grade land that CNR would swap ? Would it keep all parties satisfied ?

[book5] 27/4/2021 18:50

All associates and squaters want money, active gold miners want in addition good land (mestiza, or part of it)
So, a deal can be reach without goverment help, all we need is to find more gold and swap land for land.

[goldrush] 27/4/2021 17:54

1airbag

.....IMHO that is why we should be successful with Jim Mellon's backing....and he would be happy with a strong First Majestic FR presence and their financial firepower....

[1airbag] 27/4/2021 17:42

Jim Mellon will back this to the end, he’s in too deep.

[888icb] 27/4/2021 17:32

Solgold just announced a £36 million placing to fund a project in Ecuador so perhaps Tester is not right to suggest there is no appetite in London for gold projects in developing jurisdictions.

[sherwood58] 27/4/2021 17:21

Agree there is not much point moving funds around after being in this for over 10 years. Cacao drilling will probably be completed towards the end of July which will add 500,000oz hopefully more.

[888icb] 27/4/2021 17:09

Perhaps Rio are picking their time to buy Condor as it would be the most obvious target for them as it’s close to production (which they could accelerate),it will be the largest gold producer in Nicaragua and its close to Calibre. Now they can see CNR have the financial backing to get to production and it’s not going to go cheaply in a distressed sale, they may feel now is the time to bid. This is made even more likely as they can see First Majestic taking a position and they would have no trouble bidding for CNR and operating the mine. I believe Mark has always wanted to sell before production and now may well be an opportunity to do so. In my mind there is too much risk of a bid to think I can move my funds elsewhere for 2 years.

[tester2020] 27/4/2021 16:13

Ive been hoping for that for a while now - like when RB did his due diligence and yet he is subsequently selling out his stake at 50p or perhaps 47p now as there seems to be a seller at that level.. The london market doesnt like or understand a) gold miners and b) nicaragua as a destination .. canada is much more receptive to both those types of company imho - so any interest would need to come from there I believe.. it was good to see Rio Tinto move into Nic after 18 months of due diligence as well with Calibre, but they dont seem to have actually done anything productive either in terms of buying resources / companies.. I would like to see the fundraising for construction financing happen on the TSX to improve liquidity there and generate some retail investor interest.. london is currently dead for gold explorers in developing jurisdictions - they dont care about them at all.. despite CNR being completely undervalued even on just resource ounces of gold in the ground basis.. there seems to be too much risk implied versus limited returns in 18 months, oh no wait its 2 years - oh actually no, it will be 3 years.. better opportunities elsewhere in the meantime..

regards
T2020

[book5] 27/4/2021 16:13

We are assuming the goverment is not intervining bcs the elections, but we do not really know

The delay could be bcs we dont want to pay under the table to accelerate things...? Ie a governance issue. I believe this is unlikely as the Ortega children were saying in the village that they are shareholders too.....were they bluffling? I dont know. I heard they have equity in Explotect, which apparently has the monopoly in the country to deal with explosives. If it is a governance issue, its resolution slould be before the elections (as they could loose influence afterwards); so potentially we could be in fact very close to the resolution of the land; we dont know bcs MC has not put a date to it.

To me the land is the key to all. and I inclined to believe that most probably it will be shorted out before the elections. But there are others who say it will be after the elections. So far negotiations with the cooperative are quiet

in regards tool mining, I believe the company changed direction around Christmas , whether or not this was a temporary change of direction remains to be seen.

Next key rns is the extension.

[goldrush] 27/4/2021 15:27

tester

As I said last week with First Majestic and their extensive due diligence prior to the SAG Mill deal, Mark's time spent in North America then Nicaragua....what about if FR put up another circa $12m for another 10% or so with some options to get things really moving, as part of a major financing deal to be negotiated thereafter....this would put a rocket up the share price and ultimately lead to FR with a major holding....and perhaps this would include some management responsibilities to get the mine developed pronto.....sure we may not end up at £4 a share .....probably taken out nearer £2.50 for the remaining shareholding or FR gaining management control on proved up 5m resources....that would set the juices flowing.....we are a sitting duck for some sort of corporate move IMHO

[888icb] 27/4/2021 15:19

Book 5’s contacts think Ortega will win again and even if he doesn’t there won’t be any problems for Condor. Mark Child doesn’t see the elections as a concern. So I think you can park that concern for now.cN4 could make progress on any of the issues you mention at any time so I don’t agree with your 8 to 10 months for decent news. Also we could get a bid or a major partner such as First Majestic at any time. You are welcome to place your money elsewhere but I believe the biggest prize is here as we are so undervalued against our assets and our peers.

[tester2020] 27/4/2021 14:49

goldrush - well as a reminder First Majestic silver were happy to accept 50p a share for payment of the SAG mill balance - so you are getting shares cheaper than them - 47p to buy atm. The question for me remains though - what would be the catalysts for this share price to move up in the short term? Drill results? Toll deal? Land bought? Construction financed? I think CNR could be 8-10 months away from decent news that moves the share price . and that takes us over that potential hot spot of the November general election in Nicaragua which could be a flashpoint in the country..

My issue with buying more here right now is that other gold producers are better poised to take advantage of the higher gold price and will give decent dividends i.e Polymetal etc.. if it takes 2 years until first production at La India, thats 2 years of opportunity costs lost by having money invested here (unless a left field take over bid happens, or toll mill deal signed etc)

I am heartened to see the share price hold up here though despite the recent drop off in the gold price - its holding steady for now.. i do think thats a very bullish sign!

regards
T2020

[goldrush] 27/4/2021 14:36

Guess I am going to buy a few more from my rainy day behind the sofa money 😀😀

[book5] 26/4/2021 19:46

The locals I speak with believe that the current goverment will win.
My main contact says, if the current goverment does not win, then the next one will let cnr carry on.. Imho this seems to be a risk, and I can't quantify it.
Current goverment (If not the goverment, its sympathisers) treat the opposition harshly, including the catholic church.
I tend to believe to MC, he does not seem over concerned.
A new extension is probably required .

[tester2020] 26/4/2021 13:21

book5 - given the timelines till first production here now (i.e Q1/Q2 2023 - barring any toll mill deal which seems increasingly unlikely I'm sorry to say) it looks like Condor are going to head into the upcoming general election in Nicaragua in November without cash flow or construction financing in place.. Without getting into a discussion of the pro's and con's of the political situation in Nicaragua - what do you feel will be the outcome of that election? Are we looking at a repeat of April 2018 if the status quo is maintained do you think? For me, the political situation is the biggest risk facing Condor at the moment - I'm happy to wait for everything else to come to fruition in 2 years time, but its the potential instability in the country short term that worries me here and frankly is stopping me from investing any more in the company just now! From a company point of view, maintaining the status quo and stability in the country is key to securing what they need for a permit extension, land purchases, construction financing etc..

regards
T2020

[888icb] 26/4/2021 10:44

Condor showing down 1% on volume of 55000 but this is just due to the wide spread being quoted this morning 46/50. Drilling news must be highly likely this week which will hopefully give us a boost. We have he’d up well with no RNS so far this month.

[book5] 26/4/2021 07:25

Apparently the water purification plant is already working. Water will be distributed in big containers.

[book5] 26/4/2021 07:22

Canchi Perforaciones is larger than Rodio.
According to Canchi's website they worked for us in 2012-13

[book5] 26/4/2021 07:13

Apparently Canchi Perforaciones is very active tendering to drill at el El Llano (flat area), an area that includes La Mestiza..
Why accelerating the drilling if the bottle neck is the lab work?
My guess, to start cleaning the land and expose the veins, but why?
Perhaps the labs have increased capacity to analyse more cores?
Keep calm share price is behaving ok,
Gla

[book5] 26/4/2021 07:04

I have received two new photos, see link below:



Last week I uploaded a similar photo to the BB. I made an error on my commentary on the BB.

Apparently this road is the main access ("acceso principal") to the processing plant of Mina la India, and no the access to the water purification plant as I said at the BB. The sign on the second photograph attached say precisely that: Main Access to the to the Processing Plant of Mina la India.