Condor Gold Share Discussion Threads

[888icb] 02/6/2020 18:01

A bit of a strange day with the share price in a tight range for a volume of 864000. There were a lot of trades particularly first thing that were not listed as buys or sells as they were at the mid price. There were slightly more sells but only about 30000.
So at the end of the day it ended just 3.7% down at 39p having been to 38p.
It would be interesting to find out in the next day or so who picked up the unaccounted for shares in the placing.

[888icb] 02/6/2020 16:27

This afternoon’s RNS shows how the Directors will be pleased with the recent fall in the share price as their latest options have just be issued at 42p bases on the share price on 29th May. A few days earlier and they would have to have been at 60p. Funny old world! Probably thought they should get in quickly before the share price goes up again so they will be straight in the money.

[oldiegoldie] 02/6/2020 15:34

Well its difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. You made some unsubstantiated/unfunded speculations about land purchasing and supposed insider selling the last days, but what is then your investment scenario? Are the shorties aleady in or what?

If we only look to the near future (say 2022) one single 100.000 oz year production will bring us a return higher than the current share price

[divmad] 02/6/2020 15:10

Very rough.

[oldiegoldie] 02/6/2020 13:23

I think it's high time to make up some new math & insights here. We are always talking about share price, but as a Investor actually I do not care so much - because of the future dividends.

Again a very rough calculation:

Assuming we have 1,2 Moz gold in the ground and make 1000 $ profit per oz (very conservative case), at 140 M shares we have around 8,5 US$ (6,7£) per share future dividends, to be paied out over the ca 10 years life of the mine.
Going to 5 Moz we go to 35 US$ (28£) of dividend per share.

All of this of course assuming that we eliminate all risks and can produce during the entire time. And, I am repeating myself, this is EXACTLY what especially JM, MC and the Nicaraguan shareholders wand and will do: Produce THEMSELVES. We will not see selling the company to anybody here, be clear about that!

Why taking a huge risk discount of factor 10 or similar when selling the company to another investor, when you know that the risks are in fact rather low and you can get the stuff out of the ground yourself?
All what is done by Condor around La India (social work, environment etc) is only done because they want to stay there and exploit in partnership with locals. You would not need to do all these investments in case you just wanted to flip the mine with a max profit.

EDIT: And if we go in the beginning to a production of 100.000 oz/year as foreseen my MC that would be a dividend of around 0,55 £/share in the first production year (probably mid 2021-mid 2022)

[888icb] 02/6/2020 13:22

We are seeing some more -pessimistic comments on the bbs in marked contrast to the views of less than 2 weeks ago. The reality is we are now in a better financial position to the tune of £7.5 million which was something people were saying would assist with a rerate as it had done in similar companies.
But it was also widely acknowledged not least by Condor that we were massively undervalued in our current position against our peers. That situation has not changed but it should now start to do so. If we continue to hang around this 40p area we are going to encourage a low bid. Our current market cap is small change to a big boy so why not try to pick up a £1 billion profit stream plus future prospects for peanuts.

[book5] 02/6/2020 10:50

Production in less than 2 years
Patience required
Chance to keep adding

I have more than Double my holdings, good luck all

[888icb] 02/6/2020 09:50

I am sure that Mark is on top of the land purchase issue and is seeking to do so at the best prices from Condors viewpoint. I am also sure that the people putting another £7.5 million in to the company in recent days some of it stated to be for land purchases have any concerns that it won’t be completed. What people should realise is when you are negotiating as with the BREXIT talks you don’t give the other side in this case the landowners a running commentary on your tactics and success rates.
I am sure It would be helpful to the company if people just let them deal with it and stop speculating about how it could delay the project etc.

[divmad] 02/6/2020 09:01

March RNS states 50% of land bought so far, not 30% . Equally, it's not 100% or anything near it. Nicaraguan stand off?

[oldiegoldie] 01/6/2020 19:58

Exactly, @888ICB
It will need 1 or 2 weeks of "rest" to let the people digest and fully understand whats going on. Time is on our side

[888icb] 01/6/2020 19:28

The exercise of more warrants was announced this afternoon raising another £204000. So in the last 3 trading days with the placing and 2 batches of warrants we have an additional £7.5 million in the bank. It’s full steam ahead now towards production. All the long term major shareholders are taking up more shares and exercising warrants which is a strong vote of confidence. The company is well financed with some very useful major shareholders. Having demonstrated the ability to take the project forward to production under our own steam and that we will not struggle for funding Rio and others will realise they won’t get the opportunity to pick Condor up cheaply because its struggling for cash because it isn’t. Condor will be a more expensive target with every day that passes so someone may launch a bid before the funding for the mining is raised.
Very exciting times to be a shareholder.

[book5] 01/6/2020 19:01

I have been told that many of cnr contracts to buy the land were signed several years ago. According to them, cnr already paid say 30% of the land. Now cnr is closing these contracts by paying the rest.
My friend is of the opinion that if someone refuses to sell, then the goverment will apply the law and force the sell

All going ahead

[connect5] 01/6/2020 15:49

I have also joined this BB recently having held these shares for a decade now, having bought all the way up to the heady high of £2I can't believe it was ever £2 and that I actually did that! I have held these shares through thick and thin (stupidly and with the benefit of hindsight could have sold my entire holding on our recent high of £0.60p and bought back in at £0.40 and to be at break even, instead breakeven is £0.70p for me, so i'm still well in the red. I hope this all comes good for all concerned and would like to thank all the extremely knowledgable posters on here for their assistance. ATB & GLA.

[888icb] 01/6/2020 15:35

Just 2% down on turnover of 400000 with sells exceeding buys but not by much. Largest trade so far is a 47000 Buy at 42.2 which is nearly £20000 worth of confidence. In fact a poster on the other bb has owned up to it as well as another 4000. I don’t think he will have to wait very long before that is looking like a very good buy.

[1airbag] 01/6/2020 11:44

Bomber, excellent and thanks.

[888icb] 01/6/2020 10:35

The placing shares will be admitted to the market tomorrow so perhaps we may get news of where some of the placing shares have gone if someone is required to disclose a holding of 3%. One would not expect the new shares to be traded and so the pool available for trading should remain as it is now. I think the news will keep coming now as the new money is deployed. The share price needs to resume its rise to give protection against a low bid. I don’t think with our major shareholder base that a low bid would succeed but we don’t want a potential bidder picking up an initial stake on the cheap.

[sadone] 01/6/2020 09:10

Nicely summarised bomber13.

[b2l] 01/6/2020 08:37

thx @bomber
very good summary

[bomber13] 01/6/2020 08:07

Not only did Condor easily raise £6.4m net via the issue of 18m new shares at 36.5p per share last week , but it also received £765/- from early warrant exercise . These funds will go towards completing engineering and technical studies on the La India Project , purchasing the remaining freehold land in and around mine site infrastructure , and paying the deposit on a processing plant . Condor has also announced its intention to permit the 1.2m oz of underground mineral resource on commencement of open pit mining of the already permitted 1.12m oz of above ground resource , and to accelerate exploration activity in order to demonstrate a 5m oz gold district .

No details on the processing plant have yet been provided , or on where we are with regard to land purchases , but it would seem that things are now moving at quite a good clip . Whether or not this development rules out a toll deal with , say , Calibre Mining , is a moot point , but early cash flow from a toll deal whilst the plant is being transported/constructed still seems a very doable and sensible option . Calibre Mining suspended its mining operations on 25th March owing to the Coronavirus having already mothballed one of its 1000 tpd ball mills at the La Libertad mine last year , and therefore a toll deal with Condor might suit their medium term plans well . From Condor’s point of view , last week’s fundraising gives them a more powerful hand to play , and I suspect we will know soon enough on a toll deal , and whether it is their intention to go for a new 1000 tpd processing plant from China for 50/- oz of gold production pa or a second hand plant at , say , 3000 tpd for 150/- oz of gold production pa . My hunch is on the latter .

Condor floated on AIM at the equivalent share price in today’s terms of 200p 14 years ago on 31st May 2006 , and with a market cap of £12.2m on 6.1m shares . Today’s market cap on 116.2m shares at a share price of 42p is £48.8m , but the big change over that 14 year period is that Condor has 100% of a potential 5m oz gold district , a 2.3m oz independently validated resource , of which 1.1m oz is now permitted to be mined as an open-pit resource at extremely low cost , and which is currently worth $1.9bn in the ground . Post last week's early warrant exercise , and fundraising , Condor has updated its major shareholdings , and the history of the top five shareholders controlling nearly 40% of the issued capital is particularly revealing -

Jim Mellon - the largest shareholder with 15.5% , and a well-known gold pundit , billionaire , and friend of Mark Child , our Chairman and CEO , Jim has been a loyal supporter over many years , and has increased his interest in Condor big time in the last 3 years . He has been a non-executive director since April , 2011 , and , since then , has invested around £5.8m in Condor for a holding of 18.03m shares at an average cost of around 32p per share .

Nicaragua Milling - our second largest shareholder with 9.2% , run by Randy Martin , who has developed many mining operations in Nicaragua , and is also a friend of Mark Child . Nicaragua Milling became a 10.4% shareholder in the July 2019 placing at 20p , and has subsequently exercised some of the warrants from that placing at 25p per share . It is not clear from the website whether NM participated in last week’s fundraising , but , assuming they did not , their 10.7m shares have an average cost of around 20.4p per share or £2.2m .

Ross Beaty - another billionaire gold pundit , and a highly successful operator/investor of gold mining companies , has been a shareholder since the placing at 40p per share in April , 2016 , taking a 7% stake . Since then , he has followed some , but not all , of the Condor placings , but after exercising warrants last week and taking a small amount of shares in the placing , he owns 7.33m shares or 6.3% at an average cost of around 41p per share , or £3m .

Oracle Investment Management - fourth largest shareholder with 4.1% , and a supporter of Condor from flotation . Coincidentally , Oracle’s holding of Condor is about the same as it was when they floated , but in the interim its holding has been up to 9% of the company . After contributing to last week’s fundraising at 36.5p , Oracle own 4.8m shares in Condor at an average cost of 32p per share or £1.5m . In the 14 years since flotation Oracle has never sold a single share of Condor .

Mark Child - Chairman on flotation , and Chairman and CEO since July 2011 , Mark has been the catalyst for Condor’s development in the last 14 years . He currently owns 3.6% of Condor , but his holding was as high as 11% nine years ago . Following last week’s warrant exercise and fundraising , both of which he participated in , he owns 4.2m shares at around an average cost of 14.4p or £600/- . Just under half his holding was bought at 7p per share in July 2010 .

The point about the above analysis of Condor’s top shareholders is that they , along with everyone else , are still an awfully long way from making a decent return on their investment , which is broadly very encouraging news . After 14 long years since flotation it is only NOW possible to visualise Condor's first ever proper cash flow in the next 12 - 18 months , having pretty much derisked the La India project in its entirety .

[888icb] 31/5/2020 14:04

Condor is clearly setting its stall out to get to production at an accelerated rate which should be well received by investors. It also has the added benefit of making an early bid more likely each day. The company becomes more valuable each day we get closer to production and when we start producing we are in a completely different ballpark. It is very difficult to understand why anyone would be selling at this point as we should resume our rerate over the coming days and weeks but with the added benefit of knowing that any morning you could wake up to an offer that would take this to a new level in seconds. Very exciting times for Condor Shareholders. I will be very disappointed if an opening offer is not in the £2.50-£3.00 range as we are going to be worth a lot more than that when we are producing and start making that £1 billion profit from the initial phase of the project.

[book5] 30/5/2020 22:53

Law is referred to in this recent disertation

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[oldiegoldie] 30/5/2020 15:52

Ah now it works. As a french speaker I can roughly understand it. Reassuring that the law is dated 1958, gives legal certainty.

Due to the political situation we will probably see some accelerated procedures during the summer months

[book5] 30/5/2020 15:22

Open in new tab and then download document
It is in Spanish, Nicaraguan law

It is clear to me, we will get all the land despite sporadic opposition

I am sure I heard Mr Child mentioning the same last resort option but I cant find the corresponding video, may be someone can?