Condor Gold Share Discussion Threads

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 21/3/2024 10:41

So you think that a miniscule amount of further progress on inflation is worth the risk of, for example, further bank runs? I think voters would not fail to notice those (among other possible deleterious effects of higher for longer), even if they set less store by the stock market.

And that it makes sense to hold low yielding tech stocks right now in what you are expecting to be a higher for longer environment, even if you see deflation later?

And do you mean actual deflation or just disinflation?

[oldiegoldie] 21/3/2024 08:34

Yes. The US economy is stronger than expected, unemployment low, but inflation is still to high and shows signs it could move up again during this year.
From Bidens perspecive, trying to be re-elected in November, keeping inflation under control is more important (to the „small people“) than boosting the stock market even further. A deflationary move towards the end of the year could even help to boost tech stocks and manufacturing.
From Trumps perspective, once being elected and in office as of Jan 25, he will most likely change policy in Q2 or Q3/2025 and start lowering rates moderately, as he did last time when elected.

What happened yesterday evening where everything moved up makes no sense, the interest-rate sensitive shares and commodities will come down again IMHO.

For my US scenario I am quite sure (let’s put 99%), for Europe I am less certain because European politics sometimes are less predictable than US, to put it politely

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 21/3/2024 07:53

Do you honestly believe that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts to get the last little bit of the way to its inflation target, putting the US economy at serious risk in the process?

[oldiegoldie] 21/3/2024 03:22

Read this from january 24
After the meeting if yesterday my confidence in my predictions has ever increased

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 20/3/2024 22:24

Why would they say three quarter-point rate cuts this year then?

[smackeraim] 20/3/2024 21:52

BREAKING: Federal Reserve officials maintained their outlook for three quarter-point rate cuts this year but forecast fewer cuts than before in 2025 following a recent uptick in inflationhttps://x.com/markets/status/1770513516249674110?s=46

[oldiegoldie] 20/3/2024 18:16

Regarding FED rates - for today I am right.
Reading between Jerome’s lines I still understand no cuts for a while

[888icb] 20/3/2024 16:39

It was Up 5.43% just before the close at 24.25 but the MM’s have pushed it higher on the Uncrossing Trade to 25p and it has therefore closed up 8.7%.

[smackeraim] 20/3/2024 15:09

Use your smart money to buy a property in that town Rectum. You talk a lot from it.

[book5] 20/3/2024 13:07

We don’t own all the land
So far, Miners have rejected CNR offers.
IMHO, the government has lined up with the locals (no CPO), CNR position looks weak, so CNR needs to increase its offer. How much land will it cost us?

Recently, the Sp is doing well, which is good, perhaps suggesting people in the know are buying. Calibre announced yesterday they are raising capital

[oldiegoldie] 20/3/2024 13:01

I have already sold all my gold holdings. The last explorer I owned (not CNR) went out ca mid 2023. The more conservative stuff (mainly Barrick, physical gold) I sold in 2020, shortly after the „pandemic̶0; started and it became clear that money printing is the chosen short-Term solution. It was clear from the beginning that the distributed money will be collected in after a while, which is what we currently see (inflation, interest rates).

I am now Long mainly in Tech and Uranium (I bought the Sprott uranium trust when it came out, which turned out extremely positive).

Regarding currencies, I am indeed storing my cash on IBKR mainly in US$, but also ca 10% in CHF. That’s mainly for practical reasons, as I am only buying US stocks. But I have to say, I don’t have much cash right now, it’s mostly invested.
For obvious reasons no EUR, no GBP (besides what you need throughout the month to pay the bills of course).
Those two I see indeed dying, but certainly not the us$

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 20/3/2024 12:43

So you are presumably also selling gold and buying the dollar?

[oldiegoldie] 20/3/2024 12:06

In the US, I do not see any FED rate cuts until 31.12.2024.
In Europe, I see 2 ECB rate cuts of 0.25% each until 31.12.2024.

I hope this is clear enough

Regarding 2025, as Trump will be president by then, I expect several rate cuts totalling ca -1% towards the end of 2025, to massively boost the stock market.

I expect that we go back into a deflation towards end 2024, similar to how it was in ca 2012-2020. I mainly collect tech stocks since about 2 years

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 20/3/2024 12:01

Just to be clear, you see no Fed rate cuts at all this year, not even a few quarter-pointers?

[oldiegoldie] 20/3/2024 11:40

@ Arlington: I would not use the term „rosy“ but in essence, yes.

I assume from your reply that you expect FED rate cuts.
We can only wait and see the next months who was right

[smackeraim] 20/3/2024 11:34

Very little on offer side of book. Someone accumulated in that dip.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 20/3/2024 11:12

So you think that the US economy will survive the year, indeed remain a rosy scenario for the US electorate, without a single rate cut? That is what the smart money thinks?

[redprince] 20/3/2024 10:31

yiliano - whilst i agree with your last post you are wasting your time because you cant win an argument with a fool.
Fact is as i have said many times - this was always a high risk punt and everyone should have understood that before investing in it.We all tend to look on the upside whilst downplaying the negatives because that is human nature however we are where we are.
Aim plays invariably require many years of patience and usually further investment as the stock gets diluted in endless fundraises - something i know only too well from personal experience.
Many are simply not cut out for this type of investing and this bb is full of those types:)
My personal bet is that this will go for around the 50 - 55p mark before costs.If it were to go for much less it will make a mockery of the whole tiresome sales process.

Of course i dont know!

Aimho.Dyor.

[zangdook] 20/3/2024 10:27

'negotiations'? that's almost as good as 'special dividend'.

[yliano] 20/3/2024 09:45

O.G, you have no idea what's going on in the negotiations. If you were really that smart, you wouldn't be crying here like a little girl every day