Coe Group Share Discussion Threads

[downbutnotout] 15/9/2003 13:58

Now up 32%.

[nmurrells] 15/9/2003 11:23

XZAQ111, I Think they might of heard you.....22%up and a nice spread..

[xzaq111] 12/9/2003 22:07

WHAT I WANT TO SEE IS A CALL FOR DIRECTORS TO TAKE RESPONSALILITY FOR THE MESS THAT COE IS IN

WE SHOULD SEE HEADS ROLL AT THE TOP

CUT FAT CAT PAY BY THE % DROP IN SHARE PRICE

YOU WORK FOR THE SHAREHOLDERS NOT TO LINE YOUR OWN POCKETS

ALL THIS REVERSE TAKEOVER HAS DONE

IS SAVE COEs LTD ASS.

AT THE EXSPENCE OF TIMELOAD SHAREHOLDERS

LAME ECUSSES LIKE DELAYED ORDERS, TESTING TIMES, ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH

CUT THE MUSTARD – PUT THE BACON ON THE TABLE

IF YOUR NOT UP TO IT

ON YOUR BIKE

[downbutnotout] 12/9/2003 00:19

Anyone able to post the Shares Mag article?

[downbutnotout] 11/9/2003 14:00

Thanks RT

I reckon a sell recommendation from Shares Mag is a good signal to buy.

[downbutnotout] 09/9/2003 18:02

Surely this can be seen as good news, except for the poeple losing their jobs of course?

[nmurrells] 09/9/2003 16:02

starting to bounce.....

[nmurrells] 09/9/2003 15:06

not the news expected really i wanted to hear

[rbonnier] 09/9/2003 15:00

LOL!
Thats my private jet!

[fatmattress] 09/9/2003 14:50

RB - is this you with all my scoot.con money?...

[xzaq111] 09/9/2003 14:40

another company with management that carn't manage

the one's resonsable for overtrading, and now putting our plc in a financial mess should be asked to leave

get some decent management

[rbonnier] 09/9/2003 14:40

!Outloud! - Laugh Outloud!!!!

[fatmattress] 09/9/2003 14:25

11 88 88 - is there anyone else sick of hearing that tv advert - ho hum what could have been eh........looks like a disguised profit warning to me - imho.

[rbonnier] 09/9/2003 14:05

I think we just got our news..lol!

[stewjames] 09/9/2003 10:54

slightlycynical, I think you need to doublecheck the cash figures. IIRC there's also a rather hefty 1.5M in fees related to the tender offer and acquisition that need to be taken off as well.

[nmurrells] 09/9/2003 10:38

hmmm going down again,...needs some form of news really

[slightlycynical] 04/9/2003 09:14

Just had a look at this - seems to be pretty cheap if you assume that the acquired COE group can get back close to its FY2002 performance - £511k profit on £9.35m turnover.

See the original acquisition document:


Other statements make it fairly clear that FY2003 hasn't been that good despite the London Congestion Charging & that cashflow was the reason for the reverse takeover.....

"In the current year to 30 June 2003, COE has attempted to reduce its reliance on
a small number of major projects and has, in the year to date, realised turnover
on six major projects. However, while attempting to diversify its risk in this
way, it has experienced a number of project delays and is unlikely to exceed the
previous year's turnover from major projects. Despite an improvement in
mid-range security projects/product sales, COE's trading in the year to date has
been disappointing and it is expected that sales in the current year will fall
short of the underlying turnover achieved in the year ended 30 June 2002.


As a result of these major project slippages and an additional investment to
increase mid-range security projects/product sales, COE's financial resources
have been stretched, further limiting its ability to fund major project work. As
at 28 February 2003, COE's overdraft had increased to approximately £1.3
million."


However, given success of the congestion charging scheme it seems to me that there is going to be more interested in this type of CCTV network in other cities......

So... the company has historically demonstrated ability to generate £5-10m turnover, with 5-7% margins in "good years".

If (& this is perhaps the BIG IF), the results suggest that FY2004 could be a good year after a duff FY2003, a conservative view suggests that perhaps £10m turnover and £700k profit could be achievable (based on admittedly cursory due diligence at this stage).

Another comment:
"The Directors and Proposed Directors accordingly believe that the additional
cash resources should lead to substantial turnover growth during the year ending
30 June 2004, though currently anticipated project sales are weighted towards
the second half and any further slippage would adversely impact profit and cash
for 2004. Nevertheless, the Directors and Proposed Directors are optimistic
about the future prospects of the enlarged group.
"

However, if COE hits targets in 04 and 05, then its original shareholders get more shares:

"The total implied valuation of COE,on the assumption that the maximum number of shares is issued to the COEshareholders, is approximately £7.5 million based on the Tender Price."

But these targets for 04 and 05 are pretty punchy in comparison with my earlier assumption on profits:

"Enlarged group EBITDA to 30 June 2004 COE Shareholders shareholding in the enlarged group
30% (i.e. no further issue of shares)
• Less than £1.5 million

Between 30% and 50% (on a pro rata basis)
• £1.5 million to £2.0 million

Capped at 50%
• Greater than £2.0 million


Enlarged group EBITDA to 30 June 2005 COE Shareholders shareholding in the enlarged group
On the assumption that the Vendors reached 50% in the prior year:
50% (i.e. no further issue of shares)
• Less than £3.0 million

Between 50% and 70% (on a pro rata basis)
• £3.0 million to £4.0 million

Capped at 70%
• Greater than £4.0 million
"

Current market cap is around £2.7m, not allowing for the dilutive effects

Plus it had about £3.2m in cash post acquisition (although COE had £1.3m overdraft)

Or am I missing something?

Slightlycynical

[nmurrells] 02/9/2003 23:08

nice....looking good