Cluff Gold Share Discussion Threads

[jdk14] 22/7/2012 19:09

The current share price makes the option price look good!

[fitton] 21/7/2012 17:52

One point to make.I have both been buyer and seller at the lower levels, in a reasonably thin market with more sellers than buyers it is sometimes difficult to sell in lots of 10000 without placing a limit order.At these low levels I have had no problem with buying or selling.There appear to be many more buyers than sellers especially over the last few days, but the share price has continued to fall.On Friday there were 95 trades with 273,000 buys and 110,000 sells and the share price lost another 3p.Something isn't quite right.

[sithuk] 21/7/2012 12:55

54.8p is the 61.8% fib retracement of the entire move from the 9p bottom.

[eric76] 20/7/2012 15:43

Agreed just looking at the roughest of trendlines I wouldn't bet against the low 40's now its broken what looked to be an important support level and hit another lower low.

[ukgeorge] 20/7/2012 15:31

the chart is looking very grim.

[amargosa] 20/7/2012 15:29

The standard afternoon shafting.

[fitton] 20/7/2012 15:14

Maybe there are a lot of people already in the know, but I can only assume that the consistant weakness is due to either production problems or financing problems.Sellers at these levels must either know something or be desparate.Nearly 3 years since the share price has been at these levels,so most sellers will be selling at a loss.Price of gold has been trading in a range for a while now so difficult to pin all the downward presure on the gold price weakness.

[jdk14] 18/7/2012 23:50

Communication certainly isn't as good now that Algy has gone.

[amargosa] 18/7/2012 19:21

Well, if we're guessing: there are those odd trades going on at the day's end, but then other miners are getting similarly hit. I could be wrong about the placing, but it would be contrary to everything I've been told and would be very disappointing indeed. If there is no placing in the offing, then perhaps there are other options, if we assume the share price is being walked down. The company could be being shorted - it happens in the pm (USA?) and CLF is susceptible to low-volume moves up and down. There could be manipulation connected with a hostile takeover - the movement of the stock just before the last attempt in Feb 2010 is similar. The share price could be going down - because it's going down! Algorithms recognise the declining price and sell stock in a reinforcing cycle. Perhaps PIs are selling because they are being frightened into selling by talk of low-ball placings; as there is no appetite for buying AIM stocks, that would be enough to establish the trend (volume is low after all). The slow progress on the drilling campaigns and the DFS could be causing investors to lose the faith (not helped by piggy chairman). The market is expecting an autumn meltdown , so why own any shares in anything.

Whatever is going on I hope we turn the corner soon. I also hope the gold price stays stable - with 100k oz next year at 90% ownership and a good POG, we shouldn't need much if any dilution (assuming a debt facility of, say, $120m for Baomahun). Alternatively, they could sell Baomahun - the Pre-feasibility study valued the project at $263m (@$1240 oz gold); since then the project has seen considerable refining and some expansion, as well as significant early investment; so, perhaps $250m cash - enough to bring on line Kalsaka/Sega sulphides and Yaoure - about 200k oz a year with no debt and a huge dividend or share buyback. I think this is an option the company and its shareholders should seriously consider (I know it's on the table).

[fitton] 18/7/2012 17:16

pineapple1 - Why a placing now. Although the gold price has dropped the company is still generating cash.I tend to agree that there could be some manipulation of the share price.Traditionally the share price does get hammered on very low selling volumes.Maybe some financing has been agreed relating to the DFS.Maybe this does involve a very large placing,but it would need to be in the 50-55p range and involve raising 40-50m to make any difference.This would be the reverse of what the company has stated and rather desparate.Either way something has got to give, take a look at the Allied Gold information,this gives a bit of an idea as to potential takeover price with the price per oz paid etc,etc.Only a rough idea.

[taffer87] 18/7/2012 17:03

You may be right.. given the share price movements.. but I certainly don't think they are short of cash at the moment.

[pineapple1] 18/7/2012 16:39

There we go the auction seller does his job.
Perhpas i,ll just wait until the placing numbers are announced .It seems pretty obvious to me that its being walked down but other posters obviously disagee.Time will tell and you can often pick some up below placing price in undesirable shares like this.So i,ll plump for 53p unless numbers turn up to the contrary...imho

[pineapple1] 18/7/2012 15:54

they needed money at 92p and they likely need more money now.There cap-ex requirement must be sky high considering they will need to build roads,sulphide plants and loads of NEW things associated with Baohamun. I just don,t see how they can manage this on their current production which is not 100% attritubatle to CLF.....IMHO

[taffer87] 18/7/2012 15:45

Why wouldn't they release the resource update pre placing? And why do they need money anyway.. tjought BFS will come with preferred funding arrangements.

[pineapple1] 18/7/2012 15:16

Anyone any suggestions on a placing price here.I was thinking about 53p.which is the lower part of the channel its in..The auction seller should help to get it lower...imho

[pineapple1] 18/7/2012 00:56

Hi Simon....A placing of some sort is surely on the way and i expect that any subscribing are going to want a hefty discount considering what has transpired since the last at 92p. I also can,t see any upside on this over £1 as suggested above, unless gold goes $2000+ and thats not gonna happen anytime soon. The m/cap will be higher but there will be a lot more shares around.
Investing in gold miners has been another of those hoax pathway to riches stories so succesfully sold by the city .....imho

[taffer87] 17/7/2012 22:57

TheTache, please remember this 155koz excludes the transitional ore..

Cluff's presentations, since acquisition was announced, have been very clear Oxide + Transitional is 257,572oz of indicated and 56,258 of inferred. Then there's a sulphide deposit as well and only 10% of the licence area has been explored.

The $10-$15mm capex covers the third stage crusher already, so you are being unfair with only comparing the 155k oxides mentioned in the note above.

The transitional material may be more cost effective than the oxides.. as per the field notes i posted.

"NCP COMMENT| Normally, crushing down to a smaller size (from 25mm to 10mm) would result in a higher usage of cement for agglomeration. However, transition material is more competent than oxides and could be expected to actually use less cement for agglomeration despite the smaller particle size."

[amargosa] 17/7/2012 21:28

My understanding is that the type of financing will be announced concurrently with the DFS, not the actual financing itself. There are a number of providers willing to finance the project as debt (probably around $100m), with the rest ($100m) being provided via a number of staged placings and non-standard financing options. They are not keen on low-priced placings and the company has the flexibility to vary the project timings to realise a more appropriate window in which to raise the extra cash; they even have enough cash to build the whole thing without finance, though that would take longer than with the money upfront.

With regard to Sega, the information surrounding the acquisition was presented openly in February, then offered up to live scrutiny via a webcast with PIs and analysts. The deal was viewed back then as very positive for the company and the site visit notes (above) confirm that. The company expects to produce 100,000 oz next year. When the time is right, the company will build a CIL plant to exploit the sulphide ores.

[fitton] 17/7/2012 19:05

Since John McGloins appointment 30m has been wiped of the market cap.The shares are now trading at 2 1/2 year low. I accept the market is more challenging but I wonder if the share price would be as low if Algy was still in charge.John McGloin needs to make a checkmate move with the financing to convince the market.At these low levels I think financing is getting harder by the day.Once the DFS is out, I hope the company is taken over.The last year or so has been like treading through tar.The more time Cluff waste trying to improve shareholder value the cheaper there assets become.Lets hope the company can prove they have over 5 million oz's of reserves in the next few weeks.Even then I don't think the company is worth much more than £1 a share.

[simonbroughton] 17/7/2012 18:07

Hi pineapple1,

It does look a bit like it I must say but I hope the plan to borrow the money will work. I wonder if it could involve a part placing and part loan from one of the banks?

[amargosa] 17/7/2012 11:15

There is more information in the rest of the RNS from February.