Cluff Gold Share Discussion Threads

[sithuk] 02/6/2012 09:50

GDX up 6.8%, DOW down 2.2%. Are we finally seeing a gold stock counter rally? CLF should be up 10p+ on Mon open?

[pineapple1] 02/6/2012 02:00

the bidding frenzy will be at market tops and even if someeone did announce one on monday i doubt the premium would be any more than 70% which takes this to about £1.That would be quite a sad end to a company which seemed and i,ll repeat the word seemed ,to offer so much potential.

The bottom in miners may be in or at least close by (unless crash conditions, but i believe miners are going to disconnect from general equities.).If gold just stays where it is and oil continues on its current trajectory,these boys will be making more money than gold at $1900.Nymex down 30% since highs.Posters here are turning bearish at the wrong time.That time was at £1.20.Patience required for just a bit longer.....imho

[inside building] 01/6/2012 17:00

Been sitting watching Bloomberg all day. Certainly appears to be major changes in sentiment about the US growth. Unemployment in the US grew last month. QE3 now back on the radar.
Any investor currently shorting gold and gold stocks is now in risk territory. So will we see the shorts turning to longs? Will we see investment coming back to gold and miners? Today has seen a 4% rise in gold before the US payroll data was announced. The UK now heads towards a 2 day bank holiday so who knows where we will be on Wednesday.

I have missed many opportunities to trade Cluff but that is not why i bought the shares many moons ago. So like many here i hope for Cluff to deliver on promises, actually become a bit more communicative with their news and a share price that will make me happy in the next two years.

Good luck all.

IB

[amargosa] 01/6/2012 16:26

Do you think the computers buy back the same shares in the afternoon they sold in the morning?

[eric76] 01/6/2012 16:03

Haven't looked in on clf for some time but must say they're looking cheap with gold flying imo.
Grateful they haven't flown today though as it gives the long weekend for a bit of research.

[fitton] 01/6/2012 15:50

Gold goes up in value Cluff shares go down!

[fitton] 01/6/2012 15:38

Pointless bit of information but the market cap of Randgold has gone up by over 200m today alone.Twice the market cap of Cluff.

[amargosa] 01/6/2012 14:38

I wonder what would happen to junior gold PRODUCERS if, say, the POG started to go up rather than, as the Market is discounting, down.

[fitton] 01/6/2012 11:22

Cluff are mainly owned but large institution investors.The small share holders, as with most companies are the last to know.The only good news is that only a few months ago they did raise £23m at 92p.Those investors will have had a very good insight into the future potential.The last time they raised money with the larger investors was at 40p.Then I said that the investors would be looking to double there money which did happen.I would love them to double there money again for my sake.The only consolation is that having been in Cluff for a long time,this short term weakness is based on very low volumes which is almost tradition with these shares.I guess if anyone has the money and the nerve,buying at these levels could well be a very good move in a few weeks,months.

[amargosa] 01/6/2012 10:57

The latest accounts have some very good, reasonably up-to-date info in them, including statements from CEO and Chairman:



However, I would not attempt to justify or defend any dereliction of duty on the PR front if you think it is not up to standard, you are a shareholder after all.

[taffer87] 01/6/2012 10:46

Thanks. Only probably is Cluff seem to have no interest in communicating anything to shareholders. Last year there was an AGM Chairman's statment as a RNS, this year none. Would have been to get reassurance that DFS is on track! And all the resource upgrades that are overdue.. a reason for the delays could be the results aren't good?

[fitton] 01/6/2012 10:35

Thanks- Very good view point

[amargosa] 01/6/2012 10:04

fitton, I have met the directors a number of times and I believe them to be very competent and trustworthy; I think Peter Spivey is a particularly talented mine engineer. The new chairman also seems very knowledgeable and capable. They are very confident, but also very excited about the future of the company (particularly about Yaoure) - it IS going to be a mid-sized mining company provided the market and gold price behave themselves. The company is in a very strong financial position and would be able to weather any short to medium term financial storm, which is very reassuring - this is not the company it was in 2008. There are a lot of options available for the SL financing (including building it out of cashflow from Sega, if necessary).

You say there was an offer of £1.50/share 2 years ago; my understanding is that £1.50 is the figure the company would have accepted, not the actual offer (which was probably closer to £1.00 - £1.10, bearing in mind the share price was in the low sixties when the offer materialized). I think the progress has been much slower than hoped for over the last 2 years, but there are real signs there will be a lot of progress over the next 6 months. What cannot be forecast is what will happen to the gold price and general market sentiment over that period. If the conditions are right for gold miners, I think CLF will outperform other junior gold miners.

[corrientes] 01/6/2012 10:00

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Some might now be embarrased by what they said
a couple of years earlier, but all of us are guilty of that.

[fitton] 01/6/2012 09:38

amargosa
Two years ago the company had an offer of around £1.50 a share.What is you opinion on how the company has progressed over the last two years.Do you have confidence in the management

[amargosa] 01/6/2012 08:16

$200m for Baomahun in a sale? 100k oz from Kalsaka/Sega in 2013, another 100k from Yaoure in 2014, no debt and a big pile of cash to pick up distressed assets close to existing production. It would not cost that much to develop IC and BF into sulphide operations as most of what they need is already built and operating.

If the business model of bringing new mines into production doesn't work for shareholders in the junior mining sector, then it's up to management to find one that does; that could include selling assets at the right time in the development cycle. It could also include dividends and/or share buybacks during CLF's all-too-often share price collapses (play the shorters at their own game).

[fitton] 01/6/2012 07:19

It is a struggle for the smaller mining companies.From exploration to production it costs massive amounts of money.In most cases huge share dilution.If the stock market was boyant then we would see share prices that reflected more sensible valuations.There is no point in selling part of the company.Valuations are on the floor and it would not solve the problem.They would take x amount of money from the sale of part of the company and still be in the same situation,a small company trying to develope expensive mines in poor ecconomic conditions.Cluff clearly have lots of potential,most of it still in the ground.I don't think there is another small gold miner on the market that offers so much untapped potential.Once the long awaited,much delayed DFS is released,the company must look for a buyer.Share holders can wait for another 4 or 5 years watching a depressed share price until some serious money is being made or they can take the money at a higher price than they would get in the market for a very long time.Cluff is wasting its time and its share holders money by struggling to develope mines.This company needs to be sold.

[taffer87] 31/5/2012 23:53

for how much?

Yes they say all options are on the table, but you wouldn't expect a junor fledgling miner to sell their flaghship asset and then be 4 or so years away from any serious production (other than the KS/Sega small operation). They would have to procure a large selling price, if they want to go that route. Why doesn't whoever's buying it takeover the Co. now that Cluff is gone, IIs may be a lot ore welcome to offers.

[amargosa] 31/5/2012 11:00

The best short to medium term return for shareholders (given the current sp) would be to put out the DFS (which is expected to be very good) and then sell the whole SL project; with that money develop IC (the mgt is very excited about the potential size of this project - could be as big as Baomahun), Sega and Mali (and buy a couple of small companies in the locality to boot), all without need for further dilution. As I understand it, all options are on the table.

[fitton] 31/5/2012 10:46

Price target £2.35.I would take £1.25 and leave it to another company to develope.Jam tomorrow for the next few years.

[taffer87] 31/5/2012 10:26

DFS delayed till early July per the analyst report above.

[taffer87] 31/5/2012 10:08

Sega Acquisition Complete – Kalsaka
Cash Flows To Grow
Cluff announced that it has now completed the acquisition of the 0.6MMoz
Sega Project for a total consideration of US$26.5MM of which US$15MM
will be paid in cash and the remaining $11.5MM from the issuance of
11MM new Cluff common shares. With the acquisition now complete,
operating cash flow generation of over US$30MM/year is expected to be
sustained for an additional four years at Kalsaka. Further, we see the
potential for operating cash flow to grow from ~US$36MM in 2011 to
US$140MM by 2014 upon attainment of production at Baomahun. We
maintain our BUY rating and $3.65 per share price target.
1. Fully Funded Production Growth at Kalsaka
Sega is expected to add +400koz in production over four years thereby
boosting NAV by ~$0.40/share. Capital expenditures to bring Sega into
production are estimated at about US$15MM and include costs for the
installation of a crushing plant and construction of a 20km haul route from
Sega to the Kalsaka plant. With US$35MM of cash on hand (net of the
cash outlay to pay for Sega), Cluff is well positioned to fund Sega's
development internally.
2. Key Milestones at Baomahun on the Horizon
A resource update at Baomahun is due for delivery in the next few weeks
followed by a Bankable Feasibility Study in early July. Since the last
resource update, 51 holes have been drilled at the main Baomahun project
that management expects to boost grades and positively impact the strip
ratio. Based on the 2011 DFS, Baomahun is expected to sustain annual
production of ~135koz per year over an eight year mine life at total cash
costs of ~US$600/oz and initial capex of US$247MM. We don't expect
additional movement on the capex at the Bankable Feasibility Study
particularly as management intends to move from owner mining to contract
mining.
3. Reinvigorated Exploration at Yaoure
Management's goal is to delineate a sizeable resource at Yaoure to justify a
CIL plant. To that end, US$6.8MM of drilling is planned during the year
with four drill rigs turning and a fifth one on en-route to the site.
Located about 5km away from a hydro plant and one hour drive from the nation's capital by paved roads,
infrastructure at Yaoure is compelling which we expect to support robust economics for a potential milling
operation. We highlight that Yaoure has a mining license in place.
Blue Sky Potential
• Baomahun: While the upcoming Bankable Feasibility Study is expected to investigate an open-pit mining
scenario only versus a combination of open-pit and underground mining as previously envisioned,
underground potential at Baomahun remains with high grade shoots at depth.
• Sega/Kalsaka: $6MM of exploration is planned at Kalsaka particularly focused to the east of the Kalsaka
concession which could add additional resources to the Sega/Kalsaka complex.
Milestones/Catalysts
(1) Resource Update at Baomahun – within weeks
(2) Scoping Study at Sega – June 2012
(3) Feasibility study on Baomahun – July 2012
(4) Resource Update Yaoure – Q4 2012
(5) Mining license Sega – H2 2012

[taffer87] 31/5/2012 09:54

And that will be start of next year or end of next year?

[fitton] 31/5/2012 09:19

errollc
I would suggest the share price is under pressure because of the ongoing question mark about the financing of Baomahun.I personaly don't think its going to be a problem.As long as the company continues to have very good cash flow there should be no problem in raising the finance.I guess that the real release of presure on the share price will be when Sega comes into production.