City Of London Investment Share Discussion Threads

[melton john] 18/10/2023 11:53

"eggbaconandbubble17 Oct '23 - 14:52 - 3252 of 3260
There is virtually no dividend cover or possibly a negative one"

It appears "dividend cover" isn't your strong suit. Negative would mean no earnings at all or even a loss per share, 1.1 means 110% cover. You are embarrassing yourself and maybe should drop this.

[extrader] 18/10/2023 10:58

Comment re EM from Jared Dillian's Strategic Portfolio

Emerging Market Stocks: FRDM and DVYE

Emerging market stocks have been in a rut. The MSCI Emerging Market Index recently fell to its lowest level relative to the S&P 500 in 35 years.
Source: Bloomberg

What could cause things to turn around? Well, as mentioned above, the Federal Reserve will probably pivot soon. That should be bearish for the US dollar. And emerging market stocks have a pretty strong inverse relationship with the dollar.

According to Fortune, the MSCI Emerging Market Index has gone up an average of 22.5% in years when the dollar was down from 1974 through 2019. That was a whopping 9.6% higher than the return for the S&P 500 in years when the dollar was down during that same time period. Continue to hold.

New subscribers: Please allocate 5% of your portfolio to the Freedom 100 Emerging
Markets ETF (FRDM) and 10% of your portfolio to the iShares Emerging Markets
Dividend ETF (DVYE).

Just another point of view.

NAI, DYOR etc etc

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/10/2023 10:54

Melton Mowbray - divi cover of max. 1.1 is virtually non existent especially when forecasted - historically CLIG has worked on a cover of 1.5ish.

We shall see.

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/10/2023 10:50

The penny has just dropped.... Masurenwhotsit thought 'polish' referred to people from Poland, not putting a shine on something. Hence his taking umbrage.

OMG what a laugh!

Over and out!

[melton john] 18/10/2023 10:33

Oh look, Robin Hood is back re-incarnated as bubble and squeak. Here to protect the poor by talking down the value of their shares so he can buy them cheaper. Of course he says his motive is to protect the hard of thinking and simple minded potential buyers from exploitation with such eloquence as:

eggbaconandbubble17 Oct '23 - 14:52 - 3252 of 3260
There is virtually no dividend cover or possibly a negative one.

Fear, uncertainty, doubt; the stock-in-trade of the used-car salesman with no connection to any facts.
From the 2023 final accounts.
Total cash dividends paid £16.1M
Cash from operating activities £19.1M
Dividend cover is worked out against reported EPS and not unusually accountants minimise reported earnings however they can, but even on div/eps basis the last year was 90% covered by net income. Compare that with bubble's "honest" appraisal of no cover.
Based on broker estimates on Stockopedia the next two years will be covered 110% and 108% but cash reserves of £22.5M (down from £22.7M last year) will ensure it is paid.

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/10/2023 09:54

Have it your way chum! You seem to be overly sensitive on anyone having a different view.

All I would say to any potential investor (and even existing ones) is look at the price performance over the last two and a half years. And, it is STILL falling.
Also look back at the actions of directors etc. with regard to their shareholding and promised undertakings.
Finally consider that although the yield looks good at present the dividend cover is virtually nonexistent and as such it is very likely that the divi will be cut going forward thus reducing the current good yield.

[eggbaconandbubble] 17/10/2023 20:22

FYI. I have made capital gains here and received divis.

I'm out circa 515p. and not back in again.

Anyone invested in the market for 13 odd years should have made gains. The question is How much???

[eggbaconandbubble] 17/10/2023 19:19

Number 1. I am not a troll.

Number 2. I just consider that a balanced point of view is necessary bearing in mind these bbs are read by a number of 'amateur' investors such that bullish comments such as yours need to be balanced out.

Number 3. Yes, I was an investor here and sold out some time ago.

Number 4. I post here very infrequently on the basis of 'warning' potential punters of the likely pitfalls. I also resent peeps like you ramping stock which may cause the unwary to lose money.

Now stop ramping and consider others.

[masurenguy] 17/10/2023 18:12

That is pure speculation. CLIG has cash and has historically been prepared to cover dividends beyond earnings in the short term. For example, in 2014 the eps was 20.7p and the dividend was 24.0p and in 2016 the eps was 23.3p and the dividend was maintained at 24.0p. The current projected eps for the year ending June 24 is 40c, which is effectively 32.5p, which would just be 1.5% below the current dividend of 33.0p. Management will clearly take a view based on forward projections and if the forecasted 2025 eps of 34.3p is still considered achievable next year then they could decide to maintain the existing dividend as they did in 2014 and 2016.

That policy was reiterated by Barry Ayling in the recent annual report. "The Board believes that the use of a dividend cover policy based on rolling five-year periods provides a prudent template that serves to protect shareholders from the market volatility that can affect profits of asset management companies. The beneficial effects of this policy are illustrated clearly in the year to 30th June 2023 when underlying fully diluted EPS have fallen by 18%. On the basis of unchanged dividend payments totalling 33p for the year as a whole, the cover ratio for the single year is 1.09, whereas the rolling five-year cover ratio, at 1.24, will remain marginally ahead of the 1.2 target level."

Excluding the brief COVID down spike in 2020 we are now at a 7 year low as are some other FTSE financial companies. Therefore, we can only wait and see if this current bear market persists or whether some green shoots start to appear as inflation starts to cool going forward.

[creme de menthe] 17/10/2023 17:04

A Div cut of around 20% to 27p is likely as a retrenchment takes place.

[eggbaconandbubble] 17/10/2023 14:52

There is virtually no dividend cover or possibly a negative one. Maintaining 33p may well become an issue and as such would not 'support the shares in the current market'.

[masurenguy] 17/10/2023 12:51

Weak markets weigh on FUM

The main feature of the quarter was soft markets, with the MSCI Emerging Markets total return index declining 2.9% and the MSCI All-Country World ex US Index down 3.8%. Widening discounts also led to underperformance across the CLIM strategies and group FUM declined 6% to $8.88bn from $9.42bn. There were net outflows as well. The Emerging Markets strategy’s net outflow of $53m was in line with our forecast rate, while the International strategy also saw $71m of net outflows. KIM also experienced net withdrawals of $25m. After the recent performance, the 2024E P/E of 13.5x is roughly in line with that of the peer group. A 2024E dividend yield of 9.5% is well above the market average and should, at the very least, provide support for the shares in the current markets.

[eggbaconandbubble] 12/10/2023 16:08

He doesn't look like one of The Goodies!

[eggbaconandbubble] 12/10/2023 13:13

I bet Bill Oddie is rueing the day he didn't sell his holding at 550 as promised, and then got greedy and bought a load more at 475p!!!

[dudishes] 06/10/2023 13:48

G'day,

Somewhat ironic that the divi is half of my current losses.

cheers

[masurenguy] 03/10/2023 07:50

The AGM will be held on 23rd October 2023.

[melton john] 28/9/2023 12:29

Greyingsurfer,
I read this explanation years ago and it has helped me remember.
Record day is friday. This gives a weekend without trading to sort the payments.
With standard two day settlement the last opportunity to get the divi is by close of trading the Wednesday before so if you buy on the Thursday it's excluding divi.