Cineworld Share Discussion Threads

[boix] 22/11/2020 09:43

Sorry it's behind a paywall so could not copy/paste or link.No conspiracy just couldn't right whole article, graphs and pictures!You could buy it?

[williamcooper104] 22/11/2020 09:40

If cinemas stay over levered and don't invest then yes - but if they do then there's a good chance cinema stays relevant (IMO - and Disney could kill it overnight)

[john09] 22/11/2020 09:35

Very selective reference to a long article BOIX you truly are desperate so early on a Sunday morning

[boix] 22/11/2020 09:31

Today’s Sunday Times Business Section (behind paywall)

“Wonder Woman won’t save Cineworld”
............deal unlikely to suit existing shareholders AVOID

[jonnybig] 22/11/2020 07:49

Is interest in cinema more likely to decrease rather than increase? A bit like cricket really, as the older population die off the attendance drops cos the younger generation are less interested.

[level 4] 22/11/2020 07:03

I'm waiting till it hits my buy order at 7p..
The 7p entry target is purely for the bankruptcy rally to 24p

[williamcooper104] 21/11/2020 23:03

And highly dilutive rights is a great result for company/staff/communities with a cinema - I've never cheered on the idea of Cine being liquidated

[williamcooper104] 21/11/2020 23:01

Really don't understand that - all I've pointed out is that CINE is extremely risky/high chance of total shirt loss - which is true - I've been irritated by some posters (not you though) who've argued that this is no/little risk long - which it clearly isn't As mentioned I was long here for 8 years Likewise I've said that going short with this level of vol requires a high risk tolerance (which is beyond my tolerance - I don't bother with the opportunity cost of small positions) I still think the end game is a highly dilutive rights issue (of course I could be wrong) but going to be a lot of share price vol before then

[welsh3] 21/11/2020 22:56

Monday opening price guys looks a spike up to me

[williamcooper104] 21/11/2020 22:52

The "rescue" funding from our charitable distressed debt investors will be onerous but if vaccines roll out early q1 and blockbuster releases are back in the summer then it could be enough to bridge to a rights issue (which will still be painfully dilutive) - there's also the CARES money in Q3 So yep it could limp on (with share price spikes along the way - so understand how being long works as a trade - but I prefer taking similar upside for less risk) But equally this could be an argument about who provides the DIP funding (that's the funding a company uses to get through an insolvency process)

[boix] 21/11/2020 22:29

Let’s leave the debate.
The truth will emerge soon enough.
It’s easy for me as I don’t currently hold a position.
I have many positions but this one is currently beyond my risk appetite although at the moment I would go short rather than long knowing what I know today.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
Stay safe

[srpactive] 21/11/2020 22:25

Very positive speculation on a very depressed share price with
6% still short, buyers buying like me and short buying to close,
the more I type the more I am looking forward to Monday 8 am.

dyor

[boix] 21/11/2020 22:18

Me too but suspect the resolution will take significantly longer.
Not expecting much movement either way on Monday without an regulatory announcement.
It’s all speculation without it - too much opposing news so no direction.

[srpactive] 21/11/2020 22:14

B

I feel they will get the funding sorted and the share price
rises, then once a little more stable could possibly raise
some cash from shareholders via a rights issue.

We shall see Monday, really looking forward to the open.

dyor

[boix] 21/11/2020 21:56

Let’s see the price they pay to survive.
I assume you noticed that there is already a dispute over the security used to secure the original loan back in May?
It had already been used to secure an earlier loan.
I have no doubt Cineworld will survive the pandemic but the ownership?
But as you always say DYOR.
Stay safe.

[srpactive] 21/11/2020 21:55

Yes I believe they have secured funding to get them to
when the profit arrive again.

dyor

[boix] 21/11/2020 21:41

You really believe that?
Let’s see when the full picture emerges.
Only a few days to wait, although I suspect it might drag into next month.
Who knows maybe you are right?
But you always said this high risk so at least you understood.
Unlike many others.

[srpactive] 21/11/2020 20:51

Hedge funds, which provided a $250m (£190m) loan in June, have offered sufficient extra funding to help the company survive the pandemic.

A second group of longstanding lenders is working on a rival proposal, according to Bloomberg, which first reported the proposals.


===============

Just like reading the above, so thought I would share.

dyor

[srpactive] 21/11/2020 19:50

Or residential, plenty of profit and no debt to please
a short supporting ruiner like your good self.

[williamcooper104] 21/11/2020 18:46

I'll stick to commerical property - wonderfully illiquid and inefficient as a market

[srpactive] 21/11/2020 18:14

w104

You sound like you should be working for a shorting hedge fund
then.

[williamcooper104] 21/11/2020 18:14

That's been done via the tax system You can only deduct 30 percent of tax adjusted EBITDA It's hard to put a cap - different industries support different levels of debt - and pref shares are much less risky than bank debt - and debt with no/limited covenants less risky than debt with

[srpactive] 21/11/2020 18:12

I tell you this motley fool lot certainly help the shorters
of cine don't they.

[williamcooper104] 21/11/2020 18:11

As said before - I'm not short - was last long about 18-20 months ago (reduced on regal acquisition and gave up on the return of capital - my mistake was not buying puts then) Wanted to buy puts more recently but couldn't get anything that looked like good value and hate the margining risk on CFDs Leverage for retuning capital isn't same as leveraging to invest The regal acquisition was funded with too much debt (as many said at time) the driver for that being to keep Mookys equity stake as large as possible

[chiefbrody] 21/11/2020 17:47

Tend to agree. Leverage to some extent but the amount of companies that go under because they're drowning in debt.......Really, if u want to take over the world, bloody save up for it first. I'd really look to cap the amount of debt that companies can hold. Much lower than today's levels. No idea how