Chesnara Share Discussion Threads

[thamestrader] 10/7/2021 15:03

There's something a bit 'fake' about the quoted prices here. The opening/closing prices and the daily gain/loss simply don't add up.

Looking at the intraday graph, you could be forgiven for thinking it dropped 15p on Friday. Clearly it has not. Even allowing for the wide spread at the start/end of the day, the quoted prices here are strange. The 'mid' price charts a more realistic course than the 'curr' price, but the latter is used to calculate the daily change figure and generate the graphs.

[williamcooper104] 09/7/2021 20:32

It's certainly strange given LGEN and PHNX bounced today and no reason why CSN shouldn't have Doesn't appear to be any newsflow

[fenners66] 09/7/2021 19:30

A discussion on another board suggested that if anyone wanted to bid for a company the best route would be to drive the price down first.
I had a look at the recent trades and as today the volume here is very light but the share price has still moved.

Could it possibly be that the shares are being sold off in the hope to set up a lower bid.
Seems to me there is a reasonable business available here with a strong yield and we have already suggested that others may be interested.

[williamcooper104] 09/7/2021 19:03

Anyone any idea why the drop today

[williamcooper104] 07/7/2021 19:47

Apollo want to hoover up European insurance/life assets too

[williamcooper104] 07/7/2021 18:14

Yep - hopefully holding CSN is a way of buying PHNX cheaply

[fenners66] 07/7/2021 16:52

They are only growing the dividend by a small % each year (3%? from memory) so when profits/cash have grown by more they effectively have it held in reserve for leaner years.

I can see PHNX eventually snapping this up.

[williamcooper104] 07/7/2021 16:04

The smallness is for me part of the attraction in that I just can't believe someone won't buy it - but I've been believing that for a while; and it's obviously still here I'm tempted to cut and top up LGEN/PHNX - but the 8 yield is enticing

[williamcooper104] 07/7/2021 16:02

Sp hasn't gone sideways with volatility for years It's not making as good progress as covering legacy business with new business as PHNX is But economic value is c£600m versus c£400m market cap - not sure what discount rates they use to calculate EcV Cash generation does cover the dividend but doesn't appear to leave a lot of headroom - though management would have to be epically stupid to increase it in middle of pandemic when they could easily have gotten away with just holding if it divi was under near term threat

[pdt] 07/7/2021 14:49

I have held in the past, back in today. A yield of 8% and a reasonable chance of an increased share price in 12 months makes this attractive to me. Also hold Phoenix. Surprised more people are not interested or is it too small for the market it is in? Hopefully, a Buy and Hold for a decent period for me.

[brucie5] 02/7/2021 13:12

Tcap also worth a look, along with Dec.

[thamestrader] 30/6/2021 16:14

I would buy more (and have done fairly recently), but it already feels odd having this outfit that nobody has heard of as my fourth biggest holding. Another buy would move it to first place. MNG gives a similar yield, and has also dipped lately, so spent a little there instead.

[lord gnome] 30/6/2021 16:07

Bought in today. Waited for a sub 270 day. That yield proved too tempting.

[williamcooper104] 19/6/2021 15:53

It is indeed - but longer treasuries have firmed up creating a fatter yield curve. The risk to lower for longer was the fed keeping emergency liquidity/rates thoughout an entire economic cycle, which would then have led to much higher rates to tame inflation With the amount of debt, public sector mainly but increasingly consumer/mortgage debt, rates do not need to rise by much to crash the economy, and bring inflation down IMO the sustainable long term treasury rate is between 2 and 3 - which with the traditional equity risk premium gets you to 5-7 equity returns

[jonwig] 19/6/2021 15:08

William - is "lower for longer" still the central assumption?
The Fed may have tried to push that one, but now it's talking an earlier raise.

[williamcooper104] 19/6/2021 14:09

Long term equity returns in a lower for longer world are likely to be no or only a little more than 6 percent So 8 percent with even no divi growth is better than you're likely to get on the wider market

[pvb] 19/6/2021 12:42

...We await developments!

[jonwig] 19/6/2021 12:40

pvb - a UT trade is not a 'sell'. Likely the price will recover to 270+ at monday's open.

personally I think Deane was a bit over--cautious. It's quite possible a new CEO will put the company up for sale.

[brucie5] 19/6/2021 11:57

Difficult to find this level of yield from a share that isn't about to cut it. Yet CSN held and slightly increased by 3%. It may be that that this 260 level is merely playing out a triple bottom from 2019, given that March lows last year were clearly part of the general Black Swan. It can't really go much lower without sending the dividend to absurd levels. As it is, and without tempting fate, this yield is almost like an annuity if you're happy to forego usual expectations of growth. And of course there's always the possibility of a bid.

[bluemango] 19/6/2021 11:55

Yes it was that 261p UT trade. At the close, Bid dropped 5p to 271p so drop was 'only' 1.8% rather than the 5.3% showing on advfn where it goes by the latest AT or UT trade rather than the actual closing bid.

[pvb] 19/6/2021 11:48

Sell at 261p of ~80,000 went through yesterday at 4:35pm? (Num 170)

[petewy] 19/6/2021 11:37

Any reason for the big drop yday.

[makinbuks] 02/6/2021 10:22

Perhaps in his retirement he'll see this as an ideal income stock! Why sell?

[speedsgh] 02/6/2021 08:07

John Deane's activity in the open market whilst he has been at the helm of the company has been limited. According to the 2020 Annual Report he held 131,066 shares as at 31/12/20 (unchanged over the previous 12 months despite the large Covid-indiced sell-off). He was then awarded 197,518 shares at nil cost in April this year as part of the company's STIP/LTIP. So by my calculation his current holding is 328,584 shares, worth £900k+ at the current share price.